County Sheriff Maps

[GlobeSoc]

So today I was going through some threads and I read that offices like county sheriffs are mostly held by democrats in the South, so to test that, I searched for a website with relatively understandable party affiliations for sheriffs, and found that Alabama's sheriffs website had one, so I quickly made a map of the sheriff party control there.



Is there anything differentiating the white dem controlled counties and the republican controlled counties? I notice that there would be theoretically possible pickups for the democrats in Jefferson county and maybe a few black belt counties if they get black turnout up, in spite of them having most of the sheriffs and a lot of potential downside.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So the color scheme...

[GlobeSoc]

So the color scheme...

I know.

[Chinggis]

It's amazing how many of those counties in north Alabama are holding out. You have to wonder how long that will last when you get presidential numbers like these from Jackson County....

1992: Clinton 56%, Bush 30%, Perot 13%
1996: Clinton 53%, Dole 36%, Perot 10%
2000: Gore 51%, Bush 47%
2004: Bush 57%, Kerry 42%
2008: McCain 67%, Obama 31%
2012: Romney 70%, Obama 28%
2016: Trump 79%, Clinton 18%

Yikes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there anything differentiating the white dem controlled counties and the republican controlled counties?

Mostly it's that the former have a lot of small industrial towns. Not that it's a perfect fit (e.g. Walker has a Republican sheriff; there are still some white agricultural counties in the south of the state with Democratic sheriffs) but if there is a pattern it is that.

[Del Tachi]

Democrats still control the more rural counties.

The first counties to elect GOP officeholders were the more urban ones (Mobile, Jefferson, Shelby, Madison, etc.)

[diptheriadan]

Atlas colors?

[smoltchanov]

Much better results for Democrats then on comgressional (and, of course, presidential) level: if that would be repeated there Democrats could win about  3 congressional districts in Alabama, instead of 1 VRA district...

[jimrtex]

So today I was going through some threads and I read that offices like county sheriffs are mostly held by democrats in the South, so to test that, I searched for a website with relatively understandable party affiliations for sheriffs, and found that Alabama's sheriffs website had one, so I quickly made a map of the sheriff party control there.



Is there anything differentiating the white dem controlled counties and the republican controlled counties? I notice that there would be theoretically possible pickups for the democrats in Jefferson county and maybe a few black belt counties if they get black turnout up, in spite of them having most of the sheriffs and a lot of potential downside.

The SOS has sample ballots for each county, but no election results for local races. You could look through the sample ballots for the counties you are interested in and see if they even had contested races for sheriff. Sheriffs run in the gubernatorial year (2014, 2018, etc.)

In many respects, sheriff is the most important office in a rural county. A county commissioner is in his office, and most interactions with county government are clerical. Interaction with the sheriff or his deputies is likely to be much more personal. A sheriff may actually patrol, or if he goes to lunch, he will drive a patrol car, be in uniform and armed.

It may be difficult to find a challenger. A chief deputy would be risking his career in a challenge. A small town police chief is likely an appointee, and might not possess the political skills for a challenge. He may have been hired from outside the county.

I did find some results for Limestone County. The current Sheriff, Mike Blakely, was re-elected to a 9th term in 2014 (i.e. he has been sheriff since the 1980s). He had last faced an opponent in 2002. In interviews with a local newspaper, there was no discernible difference in outlook (both agreed that meth and pills, were the big problems, with the sheriff stating that all crime, whether domestic violence, or burglaries, etc. had their origin in drugs).

The only difference was that the challenger said that Blakely had been a young highway patrol officer back in 1982, when he ran against an incumbent saying that 16 years was too long, and that he (Blakely) would only serve 8 years. News stories about Blakely's re-election said he had his concession speech written, and a quip that if given enough strokes, he could defeat Lee Trevino. In the end, he ran about 30% ahead of the statewide ticket, giving him a 56:44 win.

The county commission in Limestone County has only flipped in the last decade. As late as 2008, it had a 4:1 Democrat majority, with most of the commissioners running unopposed. In 2010, the Republicans picked up the chair of the commission, when a longtime incumbent did not run for re-election. In 2014, the now-incumbent Republican was unopposed.

In 2012, they flipped one of the district seats. This is one instance where an incumbent Democrat was actually defeated. In 2016, he attempted a comeback as an independent, and the Democrat candidate withdrew, but he was defeated. Running on Obama's and Clinton's coattails is likely not an option in northern Alabama.

In 2014, the conversion to a 5:0 Republican majority was completed. Two long-term Democrats were not candidates for re-election, and Republicans picked up both seats, with in one case the Democrats not bothering to put up a candidate.

[smoltchanov]

Normal situation for most of Southern counties. Old-style long-term Democrats (usually - conservative one) can be reelected, but aftrer them retire a replacement tend to be a Republican: not neccessarily much more conservative (these old-style Democrats were, usually, conservative enough), but - having nothing in common (even "D" letter after name) with Obama, Clinton and their like...

[Starpaul20]

What's up with the one green county? An Independent?

[GlobeSoc]

What's up with the one green county? An Independent?

Yes

[Adam Griffin]

I'm assuming you saw this? I never did AL because - for the most part - their county-by-county election results are jambled and unavailable for most offices and/or many areas, depending.

I originally started this close to two years ago by doing the results of each countywide race in Georgia in 2012. In the summer of last year, I decided to do MS in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Later, I did South Carolina.

Recently, I've compiled three more states and am probably going to (slowly but surely) complete the map as much as possible. I wanted to get the Solid South completed, but TN, AL & KY (if you want to call it Southern) do not keep county-level results on their websites. As such, I've completed six states thus far:

If Imgur links do not display the image after clicking, then click on the URL in your browser and hit 'enter' to load it again, or hit refresh. Stupid Imgur is blocking direct links from Atlas but once you do that, it should work.

• Arkansas (All)
• Florida (All)
• Georgia (All)
• Louisiana (All)
• Maryland (All)
• Mississippi (2011)
• North Carolina (2014)
• South Carolina (2014)
• Virginia (All; Incomplete)
• West Virginia (2012)

The maps above use the "Blue = Democratic & Red = Republican" color scheme. The map below, however, uses standard Atlas colors.

Don't cry for Southron Democrats just yet:

Full-size image

[BaldEagle1991]

Surprised to see county sheriffs mostly Democratic in Alabama.

[tschandler]

As an Alabamian specifically one from Dekalb County, I can offer some insight on this.  A Democratic Sheriff in Alabama is fundamentally the same thing as a Republican sheriff.  The state Democratic party is an essentially broke rump party consisting of African Americans, the AEA (teacher's union), and pro gambling industries.  A Democratic sheriff like we have in Dekalb is simply a member of the good ole boy network surrounding each county Sheriff's department.  In more urban counties, Republican sheriffs have taken office for several reasons.  There are active "National" Democrats in those areas that run actual "national" Democrats for office.  People in those areas prefer generically Republican solutions to a the more pressing public nature of crime in urban areas.  Rural Sheriffs especially ours and those in neighboring counties deal mostly with meth and illegal immigration. 

[Bismarck]

In most cases there are no policy differences between GOP and dem sherrifs.

[Del Tachi]

In most cases there are no policy differences between GOP and dem sherrifs.

As if Alabama sheriffs could be differentiated based upon policy.

These are pretty apolitical positions.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

I actually recently made a map of county sheriffs in Texas, in case this were to become a multi-state series.

http://i.imgur.com/GJO4jMs.png

[smoltchanov]

I actually recently made a map of county sheriffs in Texas, in case this were to become a multi-state series.

http://i.imgur.com/GJO4jMs.png

Interesting. So, Democrats have almost no "residual strength" in formerly "almost Deep South" East Texas, but still have some in North-Central part of the state (somewhere between Abilene and Lubbock, if i am not mistaken)? Otherwise - no BIG surprizes)))

[jimrtex]

I actually recently made a map of county sheriffs in Texas, in case this were to become a multi-state series.

http://i.imgur.com/GJO4jMs.png

Interesting. So, Democrats have almost no "residual strength" in formerly "almost Deep South" East Texas, but still have some in North-Central part of the state (somewhere between Abilene and Lubbock, if i am not mistaken)? Otherwise - no BIG surprizes)))

I'd describe it as between Abilene, Wichita Falls, and Lubbock. It is sometimes referred to as the Big Country, implying a lot of land and not a lot of people. An important factor is the small population of the counties. The largest has 5873 persons. In Texas, primaries are conducted by the political parties. If there is no party chair, there is no primary for the party. When there are just a couple thousand people in a county, it may be difficult to recruit a party chair. With no primary, there is no way to be nominated for office.

Rick Perry is from Haskell County, which is the most populous. He claims that he had never met a Democrat until he went to college. And he was a Democrat when he was a state representative. He switched to the Republican Party when he realized there were no advancement potential in the Democratic Party.

Texas does not have party registration. You are simply restricted to voting (or running) in one primary. If you wanted to run for county commissioner or sheriff, you would file for the Democratic nomination. If the Republicans did manage to organize a primary, a voter would have a choice between voting in the Republican presidential or gubernatorial primary, or voting for his local sheriff or county judge in the Democratic Primary.

In 2008 and 2010, the Democratic primaries in Throckmorton County had 596 and 302 voters, respectively. There were no Republican primaries. In 2012, all the county officials switched to the Republican Party. In 2012, 2014, and 2016 primaries in Throckmorton County had 647, 359, and 420 voters, respectively. There were no Democratic primaries in 2012 and 2014.

Under a new state law, a party may have a county run its primary, but only for statewide offices (there is no way to file for county offices). 42 persons voted in the Democratic primary.

Haskell County was the only county with a contested D vs. R sheriff's race in 2016. The primaries were uncontested. The Republican candidate got 517 votes in the Republican primary, but 808 votes were cast for presidential candidates. The Democratic incumbent got 235 votes in the Democratic primary, compared to 271 votes for presidential candidates. The presidential race was Trump 1403: Clinton 314; the sheriffs race was 914 for the Democrat to 810 for the Republican. So about 35% of voters split their ticket.

In the other counties that elected Democratic sheriffs, they were unopposed in the general election. In Knox County, 712 persons voted in the Republican presidential primary, while only 95 voted in the Democratic primary. Nonetheless, 94 voted for unopposed incumbent sheriff. In the general election, most of the county office candidates were Republican and received around 1100 votes. The unopposed Democratic sheriff received about 800 votes.

In Fisher County, there was a 3-way race for the Democratic sheriff nomination. 598 voted in the sheriff's race, while only 424 voted for a presidential candidate (so about 1/3 of voters skipped the top of the ticket race). In Foard County, 447 voters voted in the Democratic sheriff primary, vs. 233 in the Democratic presidential primary.

The share of the GOP vote for the top office in the two primaries has increased dramatically:

2006: 3.9%
2008: 9.1%
2010: 17.0%
2012: 60.4%
2014: 59.3%
2016: 72.0%

In coming years, it may be simply impossible to be nominated in a Democratic primary, or someone who files in the Republican primary may be able to defeat the Democratic candidate.

The two write-in winners are interesting. In Throckmorton County, there was a Republican nominee, but he appears to have withdrawn. He had 162 votes in the primary, compared to 420 for presidential candidates. But an unopposed candidate would still get more votes, so there may have been personal unease with voting for him. The only things I could find about him, were totally unrelated to his being sheriff. Filing for the 2016 primary was in December 2015. A write-in candidate in Texas, must formally file, and pay a filing fee, or file a petition ($750 or 50 signatures, in this case). If you are going to go through that effort, you are going to put a serious effort into campaigning. With no candidates on the ballot, there were three write-in candidates, and the sheriff's race had 707 votes vs. 808 for president. With a small population, voters were aware of who was running, and who they were.

In King County, there was a contested Republican primary for sheriff, and the incumbent was defeated 60:54 (King County is the second-least populated county in Texas). There may have been people dissatisfied with the result, and a write-in candidate was elected 85:72.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks for interesting and useful info!

[GlobeSoc]

Renamed the thread so other states can be included