MN-GOV - The return of Tim Pawlenty?

[henster]

I don't even think Pawlenty would make it thru a primary.

[MAINEiac4434]

T-Paw about to get embarrassed lmao

[NewYorkExpress]

Pawlenty probably wins the primary by an embarrassingly close margin, but he'll lose in the general.

[junior chįmp]

Pawned-lenty is going to embarrass himself. Oh well, having such a weak candidate bodes well for flipping the state legislature

[Blair]

His statement sounds like something from 2005.

I guess his name ID/history will lead to this race getting covered as a close race but he’ll get bulldozed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Olmsted County is not really that Democratic, it's just that Rochester is a terrible city for Trump and one where Obama was more popular than the average Democrat.

But that's what's confusing. She didn't manage to lockdown Olmsted County but did have enough momentum to carry Anoka and Chisago. How could she perform strongly enough to flip the latter two but not strongly enough to defend the former? I would have assumed their shift would be unidirectional, not divergent.

I'm not sure where you're getting that notion. Those counties are not like Olmsted at all. Especially Chisago, which is a combo of working class rural towns and sprawl exurbis.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't even think Pawlenty would make it thru a primary.

His chief opponent, only serious one actually, is the losing candidate in 2014. I don't see how he could lose it.

But yeah, in November we'll have an R version of Evan Bayh or Ted Strickland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Rebecca_Otto/status/971377050853441536

Walz and Otto are tied for delegates right now, for the convention in June. However, Walz was the only candidate that didn't pledge to drop out if they failed to receive the DFL endorsement at the convention, so even if Otto won the endorsement, Walz may still challenge her for it.

I'm unsure of the specifics of the endorsement system, but with these numbers, I think Otto would win the endorsement, given that both Otto and Murphy are running as progressives.

Walz is arguably running to the left of Otto. And most of Murphy's supporters are grassroots activist types. I think more would go for Walz than Otto, who many see as a bland establishment type. But really its impossible to know.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/Rebecca_Otto/status/971377050853441536

Walz and Otto are tied for delegates right now, for the convention in June. However, Walz was the only candidate that didn't pledge to drop out if they failed to receive the DFL endorsement at the convention, so even if Otto won the endorsement, Walz may still challenge her for it.

I'm unsure of the specifics of the endorsement system, but with these numbers, I think Otto would win the endorsement, given that both Otto and Murphy are running as progressives.

Walz is arguably running to the left of Otto. And most of Murphy's supporters are grassroots activist types. I think more would go for Walz than Otto, who many see as a bland establishment type. But really its impossible to know.

Our Revolution endorsed Otto over Walz, so I'd disagree.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the member vote. Anyone can register as a member and vote in that.

The leadership endorsed Murphy.

Otto is the only candidate who opposes legalizing marijuana.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW if both Walz and Otto plan on taking it to the primary than the endorsement doesn't really matter. Both are established politicians with strong infrastructure who can run campaigns without the advantages the endorsement provides.

[Koharu]

Oh,  man. My conservative teenage memories are tingling. I, too, in my conservative years, rooted for him when he considered his presidential bid.

Me, now, 15 years later, would absolutely love to see Walz trounce T-Paw. That said, I think he would be able to snatch back a lot of the suburban folks who voted against Trump. I know and am related to quite a few of them, and if T-Paw basically ran on what he did during his tenure, a lot of those Never-Trumpers would drool with anticipation. I still think a Democrat would win, especially coming off Dayton's very excellent tenure, but I also know there's a lot of those suburban lean-Rs who absolutely hate what Dayton did.

Folks gotta remember that Minnesota actually voted for Rubio in the presidential primaries. An "old-fashioned" (ie non-Tea Party, non-Trump lol) Republican who has just enough charisma and can actually speak and write well is very appealing, both in the rural communities and the rich suburbs.

Anyway, on the D side, I'm rooting hard for Walz, because my home congressional district will go Repub without Walz running against Hagedorn (who, in addition to being a particularly vile Republican, is... Well, my dad knows his dad and there's just stuff that makes me Not Like him). So Walz being the gubernatorial candidate would at least make losing him and gaining Hagedorn worth it.

Man, sorry for the rambling. I'm just personally invested in this race. I may not live in MN anymore, but it will always be my home.