Low Income & Non College educated aren't trending GOP, it was Hillary - Data

[Shadows]

2012 Data (& Change from 2008) according to exit poll - PV of 3.3% to Romney from 2008

By Education -

No college degree - 51% Obama (-1) ( Obama % Change From 2008)
Some college - 49% Obama (-1)
College - 51% Romney (-3)
Postgrad - 55% Obama (-2)

By Income -

Under 30K - Obama 63% (-2%) ( Obama % Change From 2008)
30-50K - Obama 57% (+2)
50-100K - Romney 53% (-4%)
100K+ - Romney 54%


No College degree results (of 2008 Battle-ground states) in 2012 & Change from 2008 -

Wisconsin - Obama 51% (-4)
Iowa - Obama 52% (-3)
Nevada - Obama 56% (-2)
NH - Obama 50% (-1)
PA - Obama 57% (+3)
Florida - Obama 52%  (-2)
Colorado - Obama 54% (+6)
Ohio - Obama 53% (+1)
NC - Romney 53% (-1)

Only Wisconsin swung to the right of the PV & rust-belt states like Ohio & PA actually had non-college educated people swinging towards Obama & Democrats.  There is no pattern in the non-college educated rust belt voters showing a big trend away from the Democrats. Overall Romney 1% swing vs PV swing of 3.4%


Under 30K Income results of 2008 Battle-ground states in 2012 & Change from 2008-

Wisconsin - Obama 67% (-2)
Iowa - Obama 68% (+5)
Nevada - Obama 68% (-2)
NH - Obama 61% (-8)
PA - Obama 74% (+8)
Florida - Obama 61%  (-2)
Colorado - Obama 50% (+4)
Ohio - Obama 55% (-4)
NC - Romney 58% (0)

Overall 2% Romney swing vs 3.2% PV swing. Only Ohio swung to the right of PV while Colorado, Iowa, PA etc swung opposite to the PV swing.

30-50K Income results of 2008 Battle-ground states in 2012 & Change from 2008 -

Wisconsin - Obama 57% (-1)
Iowa - Obama 52% (-4)
Nevada - Obama 67% (+9)
NH - Obama 60% (+9)
PA - Obama 61% (+3)
Florida - Obama 57%  (-4)
Colorado - Obama 60% (+9)
Ohio - Obama 55% (+2)
NC - Romney 51% (-7)

Overall 2% Swing towards Obama despite 3.4% Romney PV swing ! Only Iowa, Florida, NC swung to the right of national PV. Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, NH swung to the opposite direction of PV Swing.

If you take out average of income under 30K & 30-50K, perhaps only NC will swing to the right of PV swing!

There is no major trend or pattern which says non-college educated & low income people are swinging GOP while rich college educated people are swinging Dem.

It is likely Hillary Clinton's candidacy & campaign along with the Trump phenomena in the GOP which produced an odd result in 2016. Also overall, under 50K income & non-college educated voters on the whole still are massively Dem & is the overwhelming majority of the Democratic base !

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html?mcubz=0

[Shadows]

2012 Poll (& it is reasonably similar to 2009 Polls as well) -


2011 total family income

Category                    Obama   Romney   % Total voters

Under $50,000               60      38               41
$50,000 - $99,999       46      52               31
$100,000 or more       44      54               28

What was the last grade of school you completed?

Category                                       Obama         Romney        % Total voters

No high school diploma                   64             35                      3

High school graduate                           51             48                      21
Some college/associate degree           49             48                      29
College graduate                           47             51                      29
Postgraduate study                           55            42                      18

What was the last grade of school you completed?

Category                Obama          Romney   % Total voters

College graduate   50              48                 47
No college degree   51              47                 53

Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union?

Category                 Obama        Romney       % Total voters
Yes                            58               40               18
No                            49               48               82

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.WSv0Ket97X4

The core base of Democrats & from where it gets its margin of victory is the labour union household & low income groups. And Democrats in 2008 & 2012 continued to win among non-college educated voters (without any trend away from them)!

[heatcharger]

These posts are poorly formatted and incoherent because of it. How does showing that there was little change from 2008 to 2012 make the point that these groups aren't trending GOP in 2016 and beyond?

[Shadows]

These posts are poorly formatted and incoherent because of it. How does showing that there was little change from 2008 to 2012 make the point that these groups aren't trending GOP in 2016 and beyond?

A long term Trend has to be beyond the failures of 1 bad candidate like Trump or Clinton & has to be a series or pattern of events.The bulk of the Democratic base & where the margins come from is Labour Union households & low income people. That is the big chunk & these people have swung less to GOP from 2008 to 2012 than the national PV (Dems held on to their base well). The same pattern is observed in swing & rust belt states where Obama continued to do well among the key Democratic base !

Same for non-college educated people who swung less the national PV from 2008 to 2012 (College educated people swung towards Romney by a higher margin). I will re-do the formating anyways but the point remains. People earning more than 50K & college educated people aren't really trending blue. The key block among the educated & perhaps more high income section which is trending Dem is the post-graduate block which is only 18% of the electorate & some with very liberal views !