How bad does Trump have to be for an 'open' Republican primary in 2020?

[MM876]

By which I mean it's not just some Senator trying to elevate his own status like Amash or Cruz, it develops into a full-blown primary with 4-8 serious candidates like Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Cotton, etc. while Trump is still running for reelection.

[Skill and Chance]

If it's that bad, he will just drop out LBJ-style.  The most likely scenario is someone libertarian flavored like Rand Paul or Mike Lee running and getting 15%.  Maybe they could get 35% and enough momentum to mess with him at the convention like Ted Kennedy did to Carter, but even that is unlikely.

[Rjjr77]

By which I mean it's not just some Senator trying to elevate his own status like Amash or Cruz, it develops into a full-blown primary with 4-8 serious candidates like Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Cotton, etc. while Trump is still running for reelection.

Trump wouldn't run in that scenario

[Adam Griffin]

Probably where Trump is consistently at or below 35% in aggregate approval polling. However (as has already been mentioned), there's going to be very little common ground between being vulnerable enough for this to happen and Trump actually seeking a second term.

Talk about a battle of the egos in Trump's head in such a situation: "do I decline to run for a second term and look like a quitter, or do I run and likely get my butt whipped?"

[houseonaboat]

Any competitive primary would require him polling <60% among Republicans, which is very far from happening.

[Rjjr77]

Probably where Trump is consistently at or below 35% in aggregate approval polling. However (as has already been mentioned), there's going to be very little common ground between being vulnerable enough for this to happen and Trump actually seeking a second term.

Talk about a battle of the egos in Trump's head in such a situation: "do I decline to run for a second term and look like a quitter, or do I run and likely get my butt whipped?"

Toss aggregate approval rating out the window, trumps a regionally polarizing candidate, if he's at 20% approval in the California's and New York  and 50s in Michigan and Pennsylvania it won't matter.

[Adam Griffin]

Probably where Trump is consistently at or below 35% in aggregate approval polling. However (as has already been mentioned), there's going to be very little common ground between being vulnerable enough for this to happen and Trump actually seeking a second term.

Talk about a battle of the egos in Trump's head in such a situation: "do I decline to run for a second term and look like a quitter, or do I run and likely get my butt whipped?"

Toss aggregate approval rating out the window, trumps a regionally polarizing candidate, if he's at 20% approval in the California's and New York  and 50s in Michigan and Pennsylvania it won't matter.

The specific example you're giving is very unlikely to happen. There's not going to be that big of a gap in any meaningful sense from state to state. If barely one in three people approve of his job performance, then he isn't winning re-election - and significant segments of the GOP would realize that.

[Rjjr77]

Probably where Trump is consistently at or below 35% in aggregate approval polling. However (as has already been mentioned), there's going to be very little common ground between being vulnerable enough for this to happen and Trump actually seeking a second term.

Talk about a battle of the egos in Trump's head in such a situation: "do I decline to run for a second term and look like a quitter, or do I run and likely get my butt whipped?"

Toss aggregate approval rating out the window, trumps a regionally polarizing candidate, if he's at 20% approval in the California's and New York  and 50s in Michigan and Pennsylvania it won't matter.

The specific example you're giving is very unlikely to happen. There's not going to be that big of a gap in any meaningful sense from state to state. If barely one in three people approve of his job performance, then he isn't winning re-election - and significant segments of the GOP would realize that.

That specific example may not be that unlikely, theres a solid chance trump remains strong with his core group. There are plenty of hold your nose republicans out there. If rural and blue collar voters continue to like Trump (as i've yet to see anything saying the other way) but he craters on the coast (which is already kind of happening) he could still very well win the thing.

I've long been a proponent of looking at the presidential race as a national horse race as being the dumbest thing in the world. Its 51 elections, not 1.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Probably where Trump is consistently at or below 35% in aggregate approval polling. However (as has already been mentioned), there's going to be very little common ground between being vulnerable enough for this to happen and Trump actually seeking a second term.

Talk about a battle of the egos in Trump's head in such a situation: "do I decline to run for a second term and look like a quitter, or do I run and likely get my butt whipped?"

Toss aggregate approval rating out the window, trumps a regionally polarizing candidate, if he's at 20% approval in the California's and New York  and 50s in Michigan and Pennsylvania it won't matter.

The specific example you're giving is very unlikely to happen. There's not going to be that big of a gap in any meaningful sense from state to state. If barely one in three people approve of his job performance, then he isn't winning re-election - and significant segments of the GOP would realize that.

That specific example may not be that unlikely, theres a solid chance trump remains strong with his core group. There are plenty of hold your nose republicans out there. If rural and blue collar voters continue to like Trump (as i've yet to see anything saying the other way) but he craters on the coast (which is already kind of happening) he could still very well win the thing.

I've long been a proponent of looking at the presidential race as a national horse race as being the dumbest thing in the world. Its 51 elections, not 1.

The math still doesn't work out, there could definitely be a gap, but if he's hitting below 33% nationally, he's underwater in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He'd maybe scrape by in the 40s best case scenario in the Trumpier of the swing states, but no better than that.

[Rjjr77]

Probably where Trump is consistently at or below 35% in aggregate approval polling. However (as has already been mentioned), there's going to be very little common ground between being vulnerable enough for this to happen and Trump actually seeking a second term.

Talk about a battle of the egos in Trump's head in such a situation: "do I decline to run for a second term and look like a quitter, or do I run and likely get my butt whipped?"

Toss aggregate approval rating out the window, trumps a regionally polarizing candidate, if he's at 20% approval in the California's and New York  and 50s in Michigan and Pennsylvania it won't matter.

The specific example you're giving is very unlikely to happen. There's not going to be that big of a gap in any meaningful sense from state to state. If barely one in three people approve of his job performance, then he isn't winning re-election - and significant segments of the GOP would realize that.

That specific example may not be that unlikely, theres a solid chance trump remains strong with his core group. There are plenty of hold your nose republicans out there. If rural and blue collar voters continue to like Trump (as i've yet to see anything saying the other way) but he craters on the coast (which is already kind of happening) he could still very well win the thing.

I've long been a proponent of looking at the presidential race as a national horse race as being the dumbest thing in the world. Its 51 elections, not 1.

The math still doesn't work out, there could definitely be a gap, but if he's hitting below 33% nationally, he's underwater in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He'd maybe scrape by in the 40s best case scenario in the Trumpier of the swing states, but no better than that.

Not really.

He could easily be at or around 50% in rust belt swing states, a few points under in a few reliably red states, and getting thwacked in traditionally blue states and be hanging around 33% nationally.

You also have to mention that national approval ratings aren't voter turnout, often they are all registered voters polled.

[Leinad]

If we reach the point where a large amount of Republicans don't want him to be President, and the majority of the party realize he'd lose in the general, we'd have a large amount of demand for a primary challenge. And if there is a large amount of demand, there is a large chance someone who could win would want to try.

By which I mean it's not just some Senator trying to elevate his own status like Amash

Man, I wish Amash was a Senator.

[Rjjr77]

Can you point to any evidence of such a split being likely to happen? Because if he's causing blue states to vote against him by 75-25 margins like you claim, he's probably losing at least some solidly Republican ground in those states too that would signal that he's not holding up his margins in other parts of the Rust belt that are somewhat similar. Think: downstate Illinois, Upstate NY, southern NJ, wherever the hell the Republican "base" is in California (because I sure as hell don't see one anymore after 2016), and parts of rural New England. So enlighten me, how would he be bombing bad in those places and not have any erosion at all in economically and culturally similar parts of the Upper Midwest?

We aren't talking about voting margins, we are talking about approval ratings. They are not the same, and my point is people need to stop viewing them as such. People vote for people they don't like all the time.