2016: Turnout vs Persuasion

[RaphaelDLG]

Given these priors:
- Despite declamations that Obama won mostly without older whites, and that because of demographic changes the Democrats can now win without whites/with mostly just millennial/urban whites, exit polling of 2008/2012 was actually substantially off, and greatly underestimated the extent to which blue collar whites (outside of the south) swung FOR Obama in both of his elections.
- Polling is a very inexact science

Which of the following are MAJOR reasons why Hillary Clinton lost?  Provide links/numbers to support your claim:
1) Donald Trump energized/turned out hidden voters that McCain and Romney did not
2) Hillary Clinton did not energize/turn out all of the Obama 2008/2012 coalition
3) Donald Trump swung former Obama 2008/2012 voters over to him with his persuasive pitch
4) Hillary Clinton turned off former Obama 2008/2012 voters who voted for Trump instead

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

2+4. It was Clinton's elitism, which I admittedly took part in, which cost her so many rural Obama voters.

[twenty42]

I would say 2+4 as well. Hillary took a lot of votes for granted, always a terrible political move. She truly pulled a Dewey, and she got burned for it just like he did.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s share of the vote was not much different from Romney’s.  The big change was that there were more votes for third party candidates this time and fewer votes for the Dem. nominee.

So of the people who voted for Obama in 2012, how many switched to 3rd party this time, rather than switching to Trump?  Unfortunately, I don’t see a “Who did you vote for last time?” question in the exit poll.

[ApatheticAustrian]

both, obviously and such combinations are typical for a wave.

for example look at NV:

a red wave but it got "outwaved" by even higher dem support.

meaning:

urban and suburban american would have "cancelled" the red wave but since it was down and rural was way up --> close trump victory.

can't be separated.

[RaphaelDLG]

BUMP for a re-evaluation with more accurate information/exit polling studies

[Coolface Sock #42069]

It's the same story as every other election since 2004: while the losing candidate was trying to appeal to undecided voters and independents and voters from the other party, the winning candidate was busy running up huge (or in this case YUGE) margins among his base and increasing that same base's turnout.

[Mr. Morden]

BUMP for a re-evaluation with more accurate information/exit polling studies

Do any of the studies attempt to give some kind of solid #s to the fundamental questions?:

-What % of Clinton voters voted for Obama?  What % voted for Romney?  What % voted 3rd party in 2012?  What % didn't vote at all in 2012?

-What % of Trump voters voted for Obama?  What % voted for Romney?  What % voted 3rd party in 2012?  What % didn't vote at all in 2012?

-What % of Johnson/Stein/McMullin/other voters voted for Obama?  What % voted for Romney?  What % voted 3rd party in 2012?  What % didn't vote at all in 2012?

I guess that would answer it, if we had that information.