Will Trump Get Anything Passed by Congress?

[Frodo]

Tax cuts, repealing Obamacare, infrastructure, building the Great Wall....or maybe just a spending bill.

Or are his main accomplishments in the end going to be defined by his executive orders and nothing else? 

[GlobeSoc]

Are any important bills that could get caught in controversy in committee right now? For that matter, is anything important going through right now?

[The Other Castro]

Debt ceiling increases and continuing budget resolutions.

[Dr. Arch]

Debt ceiling increases and continuing budget resolutions.

In other words, no.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Copyright terms will expire next year if this congress doesn't extend again.

[The_Doctor]

A lot will get passed. Remember we're just 40 days into Trump's tenure and he's due to give an address to Congress this week.

The following will probably pass:

1.) Tax cuts
2.) Symbolic Repeal of ObamaCare and some health care window dressing
3.) Funding for the border wall and border security.
4.) Some sort of infrastructure package (least sure about this ironically, since Congress loves spending)

What I'm confident will not pass

1.) RyanCare
2.) Tariffs

[Sir Mohamed]

Not that much real accomplishments, but he will sell out these things as yuge accomplishments to his base and accuse the media of fake news, when they hold him accountable.

1. Cosmetic changes on Obamacare
2. Some tax cuts for the rich, NO real tax reform
3. Increase of debt ceiling big league (we’re probably at 25 trillion by 2020)
4. More border patrol and small portions of a border wall (that Mexico WON’T pay for)
5. Repeal of Johnson-Amendment
6. Ripping away some regulations on Wall Street


Won’t get passed:

1. Repeal and replace of Obamacare
2. Infrastructure Bill
3. Tariffs
4. Amendment for congressional term limits (LOL!)
5. Immigration Reform

[Mr. Morden]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

[Sir Mohamed]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

Well, you’re right, neither is actually the case. On the issues, on which there a consensus between (and among) congressional GOPers and the Trumpster, they will pass it. On Obamacare for example, there is no consensus except “repeal and replace”, which is quite no real concept. Tax Reform already gets more difficult, because there are several different proposals on the table. They will pass some tax cut for the rich and probably business, and that’s it. On issues the WH and GOPers differ, nothing will get done. The GOP was always in favor of free trade, so tariffs won’t get through. And I have zero reason to believe that the GOP will approve a trillion dollar spending bill for infrastructure. Just not going to happen. Keep in mind that the GOP, especially in the senate, needs a broad consensus if they want to get anything done.

[Person Man]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

Well, you’re right, neither is actually the case. On the issues, on which there a consensus between (and among) congressional GOPers and the Trumpster, they will pass it. On Obamacare for example, there is no consensus except “repeal and replace”, which is quite no real concept. Tax Reform already gets more difficult, because there are several different proposals on the table. They will pass some tax cut for the rich and probably business, and that’s it. On issues the WH and GOPers differ, nothing will get done. The GOP was always in favor of free trade, so tariffs won’t get through. And I have zero reason to believe that the GOP will approve a trillion dollar spending bill for infrastructure. Just not going to happen. Keep in mind that the GOP, especially in the senate, needs a broad consensus if they want to get anything done.

They won't on anything unless every Republican save 1 or 2 in Senate or 3 or 4 in the House will vote for it. Both state ments can be true. There will be dissent, there will be a 97-99% party line vote.

[Mr. Morden]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

Well, you’re right, neither is actually the case. On the issues, on which there a consensus between (and among) congressional GOPers and the Trumpster, they will pass it. On Obamacare for example, there is no consensus except “repeal and replace”, which is quite no real concept. Tax Reform already gets more difficult, because there are several different proposals on the table. They will pass some tax cut for the rich and probably business, and that’s it. On issues the WH and GOPers differ, nothing will get done. The GOP was always in favor of free trade, so tariffs won’t get through. And I have zero reason to believe that the GOP will approve a trillion dollar spending bill for infrastructure. Just not going to happen. Keep in mind that the GOP, especially in the senate, needs a broad consensus if they want to get anything done.

They won't on anything unless every Republican save 1 or 2 in Senate or 3 or 4 in the House will vote for it. Both state ments can be true. There will be dissent, there will be a 97-99% party line vote.

Right, but I remember two weeks ago when Collins and Murkowski voted against DeVos, some people here were saying that they were allowed to do so by leadership because leadership knew that two no votes wouldn't kill the nomination, and that this is how it would play out on everything: Trump would get everything he wanted from Congress with a handful of Republican dissenters voting no on certain votes, but never enough to actually kill anything he wanted.

But yeah, I don't actually believe that's true.  Personnel isn't the same as policy.  Republicans deferred to Trump on personnel (except with Puzder), but there'll be certain policies where enough defectors will emerge to sink Trump's preferred legislation.

That is, assuming Trump even has preferred legislation.  I'd say it's still an open question how much of what he might want Congress to pass is actually something he cares about in the first place, as opposed to just things he talks about because it plays well with Republican voters.  Ryan's the one who actually cares about policy, so on much of this it's more a matter of whether Trump will back Ryan rather than the other way around.  E.g., I doubt Trump really cares about what happens to Obamacare.  But Obamacare repeal is/was popular with Republican voters, so...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

Considering many of his appointments still haven't been confirmed, they're the worst lap dogs imaginable.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

Considering many of his appointments still haven't been confirmed, they're the worst lap dogs imaginable.

A disobedient, loud, non-housebroken puppy can still be a lapdog, if that makes sense.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Why does it seem like people are vacillating back and forth between "Congressional Republicans are lap dogs who'll vote with Trump no matter what" and "Trump won't be able to get anything passed through Congress"?

Considering many of his appointments still haven't been confirmed, they're the worst lap dogs imaginable.

A disobedient, loud, non-housebroken puppy can still be a lapdog, if that makes sense.

Puppy's are cute, but members of Congress should be caged. 

[PeteB]

The correct question is:

"Will the GOP controlled Congress pass anything, with President Trump rubberstamping it, inbetween one of his tweets and playing golf at Mar El Lago"?

And the answer is yes.  Obamacare Repeal will pass (not sure about what will replace it), Border security will pass, tax overhaul will pass and some sort of modified NAFTA will be fast-tracked by Congress.  So will the replacement of at least one or (if you believe Cruz) two Chief Justices.

Once Trump starts falling out of line or becoming a nuisance (or simply if his popularity drops too low), he will be forced into a lame duck position or be impeached.  But we are not there yet.

[pbrower2a]

Tax cuts, repealing Obamacare, infrastructure, building the Great Wall....or maybe just a spending bill.

Or are his main accomplishments in the end going to be defined by his executive orders and nothing else? 

Tax cuts? There will be deficit hawks. Repealing Obamacare? State governments might get around that. Infrastructure? Democrats might oppose that if that has privatization as part of the deal  (We will build Interstate 92, but you must turn Interstate 94 over to a profiteering monopolist as a privately-owned, unregulated toll road). Great Wall ? Too many people have nothing to gain from it.

Democrats are likely to offer lockstep opposition to most things, and some Republicans will oppose much of the Trump agenda as "budget busting".