What Are the Long Term Implications of Democrat's Winning Texas in 2020?

[Sorenroy]

Based very loosely on Thinking Crumpet's post on Biden winning against Trump.

There has been a lot of talk about a landslide victory against Trump in 2020, and on the very edge is the possibility of Democrats winning Texas for the first time since 1976. While it's meaningless for the Democrat that does it (winning Texas as is currently stands means you've already blown your opponent out of the water), are there any long term impacts to winning Texas? Will a Democratic victory in Texas be a one time thing that doesn't come back around again from another couple decades when demographics finally sway the state, or will it be a new era where Democrats push to solidify their holdings on the second biggest state in the union?

[Ronnie]

They probably wouldn't be a whole lot different from the long-term implications of Barack Obama winning North Carolina in 2008.  The win would indicate that Texas is shifting into lean R territory, but that Dems would still have a long way to go to be able to win the state in a competitive national race.

[Skill and Chance]

Depends on whether it is a 35+ state yuge win or an election as close as 1992 or 2012 with massive swings in the South and West.  The latter scenario would be far more interesting, and there would probably be a hint of it by the end of 2018.  While I don't think something like this is likely, it is possible:

Catherine Cortez Masto/Dem Gov of GA 325 EV 50.9%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 207 EV 46.8%
Mormon/Neocon Independent Ticket 6 EV 2.2%

[This Has Only Just Begun]

They will start eating organically sourced well done steaks and asking for all of their assault rifle and sex toys to be created from locally sourced lead parts.

[twenty42]

Well a D win in Texas would likely signify that D's won the popular vote by around 53-42 with over 400 EV's. This, of course, would be the worst defeat of an incumbent since 1932.

If Trump did get Hoovered, I think it would say more about him than the party itself. The D would enter the White House with a mandate and most likely have both houses of congress, but also with the onus of being the anti-Trump who will fix what is broken. Political polarization being what it is, this could likely cause a backlash in 2022.

I do agree with a previous post that 2020 Texas in this scenario would be pretty similar to 2008 NC. The R candidate in 2024 could narrowly flip it even in defeat, preserving it's status as a Lean R swing state. The electoral college is a zero-sum game, however, and D's putting resources into Texas will most likely cause some smaller present-day swing states to fall into lean R territory.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well a D win in Texas would likely signify that D's won the popular vote by around 53-42 with over 400 EV's. This, of course, would be the worst defeat of an incumbent since 1932.

If Trump did get Hoovered, I think it would say more about him than the party itself. The D would enter the White House with a mandate and most likely have both houses of congress, but also with the onus of being the anti-Trump who will fix what is broken. Political polarization being what it is, this could likely cause a backlash in 2022.

I do agree with a previous post that 2020 Texas in this scenario would be pretty similar to 2008 NC. The R candidate in 2024 could narrowly flip it even in defeat, preserving it's status as a Lean R swing state. The electoral college is a zero-sum game, however, and D's putting resources into Texas will most likely cause some smaller present-day swing states to fall into lean R territory.

2022 is Obama+14 years, at which point the oldest millenials will be in their 40's.

1994 was Reagan+14, at which point the oldest boomers were in their mid 40's. '

I think the 2020's will be a rather good decade for the Democrats. That said, I don't expect it to be very good for the Sander's wing. Who the nominee is in 2020, I think will probably be the most consequential decision for the Democratic Party, for the next 50 years.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Depends on whether it is a 35+ state yuge win or an election as close as 1992 or 2012 with massive swings in the South and West.  The latter scenario would be far more interesting, and there would probably be a hint of it by the end of 2018.  While I don't think something like this is likely, it is possible:

Catherine Cortez Masto/Dem Gov of GA 325 EV 50.9%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 207 EV 46.8%
Mormon/Neocon Independent Ticket 6 EV 2.2%

Its a map I have drawn before, I don't think Masto causes that map to occur.

I think you need someone like Cuomo, who is a poor fit for the working class swing vote, but does well with the urban neoliberals, minorities and ex-pat suburban Republicans, with a sunbelt VP. This is the anti-Trump coalition. Cuomo/Masto would work.

The 2018 Siena poll that has upstate NY wanting someone other than Cuomo by 20% is a good example. I would expect massive GOP trends from Maine to MN in that scenario, which is the only thing that can make that map possible.

[RINO Tom]

Well a D win in Texas would likely signify that D's won the popular vote by around 53-42 with over 400 EV's. This, of course, would be the worst defeat of an incumbent since 1932.

If Trump did get Hoovered, I think it would say more about him than the party itself. The D would enter the White House with a mandate and most likely have both houses of congress, but also with the onus of being the anti-Trump who will fix what is broken. Political polarization being what it is, this could likely cause a backlash in 2022.

I do agree with a previous post that 2020 Texas in this scenario would be pretty similar to 2008 NC. The R candidate in 2024 could narrowly flip it even in defeat, preserving it's status as a Lean R swing state. The electoral college is a zero-sum game, however, and D's putting resources into Texas will most likely cause some smaller present-day swing states to fall into lean R territory.

2022 is Obama+14 years, at which point the oldest millenials will be in their 40's.

1994 was Reagan+14, at which point the oldest boomers were in their mid 40's. '

I think the 2020's will be a rather good decade for the Democrats. That said, I don't expect it to be very good for the Sander's wing. Who the nominee is in 2020, I think will probably be the most consequential decision for the Democratic Party, for the next 50 years.

If anything, it will be better for them.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well a D win in Texas would likely signify that D's won the popular vote by around 53-42 with over 400 EV's. This, of course, would be the worst defeat of an incumbent since 1932.

If Trump did get Hoovered, I think it would say more about him than the party itself. The D would enter the White House with a mandate and most likely have both houses of congress, but also with the onus of being the anti-Trump who will fix what is broken. Political polarization being what it is, this could likely cause a backlash in 2022.

I do agree with a previous post that 2020 Texas in this scenario would be pretty similar to 2008 NC. The R candidate in 2024 could narrowly flip it even in defeat, preserving it's status as a Lean R swing state. The electoral college is a zero-sum game, however, and D's putting resources into Texas will most likely cause some smaller present-day swing states to fall into lean R territory.

2022 is Obama+14 years, at which point the oldest millenials will be in their 40's.

1994 was Reagan+14, at which point the oldest boomers were in their mid 40's. '

I think the 2020's will be a rather good decade for the Democrats. That said, I don't expect it to be very good for the Sander's wing. Who the nominee is in 2020, I think will probably be the most consequential decision for the Democratic Party, for the next 50 years.

If anything, it will be better for them.

Well that is the one variable that I am rather uncertain about. And I think much of it will come down to who the Democrats nominate in 2020, because I think there is a great chance that whoever they nominate will win. My expectation is that it is an establishment Democrat based on both the 2016 numbers and the possibility of disgruntled Republicans joining the Democrats, all of whom would bolster the establishment wing of the Party.