House 2018: what seats will the Republicans target?

[Figueira]

While the Republicans will mostly be on defense in 2018 in the House, they do have a number of potential pickup opportunities. Obviously Trump/Democratic seats (NH-01, NY-18, NJ-05, PA-17, IL-17, IA-02, WI-03, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, AZ-01, and NV-03) will be top targets. But what other seats can they target? I can think of a few off the top of my head:

-NH-02
-CT-02
-CT-05
-MD-06
-AZ-09
-FL-13
-CA-07

This is not an attempt at a remotely comprehensive list, but what else is there?

[Heisenberg]

NV-04 is one possibility. Democratic turnout falls in Nevada midterms (even in 2006), so if that holds, and Kihuen decides to run for higher office, then there's one possibility. OR-04 and OR-05 are other potential targets. FL-07 is another low-hanging fruit, FL Republicans should get serious about trying to defeat Murphy, she could very soon be a rising star and run statewide. State Sen. David Simmons, who is termed out next year and represents much of the current area, is interested. Unlike Mica, expect him to run a very serious campaign, but Murphy now has the incumbency advantage, and we don't know what the 2018 electoral atmosphere will be like. And if Kildee vacates MI-05, which he might to run for governor, Republicans should at least compete there with a state legislator from the area (It's the Republican version of, say, TX-03). Off the top of my head, NY-03 is a Trump-held D-seat you missed (not sure of any others).

But if I ran the NRCC, I'd be more about defense than offense, for sure. The three MN seats, plus PA-17, FL-07, and NJ-05 (the latter two already identified by Stivers as top targets) would be the best places to go on offense. NH-02 is not a good target, since Kuster is pretty entrenched, and California will be tough to defend: many seats are now more Democratic, and the GOP could be shut out of both the Governor and Senate races, which would probably depress R turnout.

[Frodo]

To really consolidate their hold on Minnesota, Republicans will need to win the governor's mansion and retain control of the legislature just in time for the 2020 redistricting cycle.  Then they could do to Minnesota what they have already done in Wisconsin.  

[100% pro-life no matter what]

AZ-1
FL-7 (John Mica's old district)
FL-13
NJ-5
MN-1
MN-7
MN-8
WI-3
IA-2
NH-1
NH-2
PA-17
GA-2
OR-4
NY-3
NY-18
CT-2
CT-3
CT-5 (probably go all in on one of the three CT ones, rather than focus on all)
CA-52 (if Falcouner runs)
IL-17
NV-3
NV-4

Here are some longshot opportunities:
KY-3 (only if Yarmuth retires)
TN-5 (only if Cooper retires)
WA-6
OR-5
FL-22
CA-7
AZ-9
CO-7

[publicunofficial]

Assuming the NRCC casts a wide a net as the DCCC has:

-OR-04
-OR-05
-CA-07
-CA-16
-NV-03
-NV-04
-AZ-01
-AZ-09 (If Sinema runs statewide)
-MN-01
-MN-07
-MN-08
-WI-03
-IA-02
-IL-10
-IL-17
-MI-05
-OH-13
-PA-17
-MD-06
-FL-07
-FL-13
-NJ-05
-NY-03
-NY-18
-NY-25
-NH-01
-NH-02
-CT-02
-CT-05
-RI-02

Maybe a few of the more marginal California seats like CA-24 or CA-52, but I think the GOP is smart enough to see the writing on the wall in SoCal.

[Mr.Phips]

NV-04 is one possibility. Democratic turnout falls in Nevada midterms (even in 2006), so if that holds, and Kihuen decides to run for higher office, then there's one possibility. OR-04 and OR-05 are other potential targets. FL-07 is another low-hanging fruit, FL Republicans should get serious about trying to defeat Murphy, she could very soon be a rising star and run statewide. State Sen. David Simmons, who is termed out next year and represents much of the current area, is interested. Unlike Mica, expect him to run a very serious campaign, but Murphy now has the incumbency advantage, and we don't know what the 2018 electoral atmosphere will be like. And if Kildee vacates MI-05, which he might to run for governor, Republicans should at least compete there with a state legislator from the area (It's the Republican version of, say, TX-03). Off the top of my head, NY-03 is a Trump-held D-seat you missed (not sure of any others).

NY-03 went for Clinton.

[Mr.Phips]

AZ-1
FL-7 (John Mica's old district)
FL-13
NJ-5
MN-1
MN-7
MN-8
WI-3
IA-2
NH-1
NH-2
PA-17
GA-2
OR-4
NY-3
NY-18
CT-2
CT-3
CT-5 (probably go all in on one of the three CT ones, rather than focus on all)
CA-52 (if Falcouner runs)
IL-17
NV-3
NV-4

Here are some longshot opportunities:
KY-3 (only if Yarmuth retires)
TN-5 (only if Cooper retires)
WA-6
OR-5
FL-22
CA-7
AZ-9
CO-7

CT-04 is by far the most out of reach of the three once GOP held districts in CT.  Clinton won there by 60%-37%.  That seat is for the GOP what SC-05 is for Dems now.

[136or142]

Nevada 3.  The Democrat there, Jacky Rosen, was something of a fluke winner running against a very flawed Republican in an open seat.

[PAK Man]

AZ-01 - GOP has had awful luck with this seat, which should be competitive. I suspect they'll keep trying to pick it up.

FL-07 - Mica did virtually no campaigning and didn't take Murphy seriously as an opponent, causing his loss. Republicans will probably try and recruit someone who will actually work for the seat.

FL-13 - Jolly is already talking about a rematch, but I suspect NRCC will want to go with someone who won't insult them as their candidate.

IL-10 - Will Dold run again? I suppose that's the big question here. Schneider isn't the best Democrat, but he's helped by how blue the seat is.

IA-02 - Loebsack's probably fine (Johnson County seems to always bail him out) but I can see the GOP targeting him after they hit it big in 2016. State Sen. Mark Chelgren, who holds a Democratic-leaning seat and briefly ran in 2016 before dropping out, might be a good challenger for the GOP.

MN-01 - Walz had a shockingly close call that nobody was anticipating. Republicans might put effort into defeating him this time around.

MN-07 - Peterson's not going anywhere, but his closer-than-expected victory might give Republicans incentive to challenge him.

MN-08 - Nolan is either really lucky or Stewart Mills is a terrible candidate. Either way, I suspect NRCC will go with somebody else this time around.

NV-03 - As others have said, Rosen's victory could be seen as a fluke, especially since Danny Tarkanian was her opponent. The big question here is whether Michael Roberson tries again or not.

NH-01 - This seat will always be a perennial target of both parties. Though maybe this time the GOP will get someone besides Frank Guinta.

NH-02 - Kuster's victory was closer than expected, especially given this race was on nobody's radar. Republicans I feel will actually try concentrating on defeating her this time around.

NJ-05 - Republicans are already planning to take on Gottheimer. Given how long they've held this seat, it's pretty much a given they'd go for it.

NY-03 - Their much-hyped candidate Jack Martins went nowhere, but it's a swing district and if they want to defeat Suozzi, now's the best time.

NY-18 - Again, a swing district the GOP ignored last year but could be competitive in the right environment.

OR-04 - Not that I think DeFazio is in any danger, but this was the tightest presidential contest of 2016. They might make a play here, but he should be fine.

PA-17 - Again, not that I think Cartwright will actually lose, but Trump won this district in a shocker.

[Heisenberg]

Trump winning PA-17 (by 11 points I think) was no shocker. True, I didn't expect the margin to be that high, but it's the right kind of place to swing towards him, and it was only D+4 before the election. And Mills is a terrible fit for MN-08, the GOP needs someone with a more blue collar, working class oriented background (Jason Rarick?). NH-01, it may be time for the GOP to just give up, rather than spend a lot every two years. It's possible a social liberal and fiscal moderate could win, but what's the point if the candidate is a RINO like that?

[publicunofficial]

I think Mills might have gotten the message after blowing 14 million dollars and then running way behind Trump. We'll see though.

Personally the D incumbents I'm most worried about are Cartwright, Shea-Porter, Walz, Rosen, Gottheimer, and Nolan if and only if the NRCC gets someone besides Mills.


Loebsack will probably be fine, Murphy seems like the type that could become entrenched very quickly (Like Kyrsten Sinema or Patrick Murphy) in a district that's trending towards D's anyway, Peterson's seat is Safe R if he retires but I think he survives a Trump midterm, DeFazio and Schrader will probably survive, and I think Trump might finally put IL-10 out of Republican hands for a while.

[Young Conservative]

Minnesota has a lot of good targets. Florida has a few vulnerable democrats. New Hampshire will always be targeted and is always expensive.

[PMHub]

NY-18 probably shouldn't be on the radar. Maloney got by in 2014 despite a GOP wave and is pretty popular there. There's a reason why the GOP ignored it in 2016

[Gass3268]

Minnesota has a lot of good targets. Florida has a few vulnerable democrats. New Hampshire will always be targeted and is always expensive.

Can't think of anyone that's truly vulnerable in FL, especially in a Trump midterm.

[krazen1211]

Smart move would be to pass fresh gerrymandering in NH and claim NH-01 easily.

[Torie]

NY-18 probably shouldn't be on the radar. Maloney got by in 2014 despite a GOP wave and is pretty popular there. There's a reason why the GOP ignored it in 2016

Correct. He's a very talented politician.

[Mr.Phips]

Smart move would be to pass fresh gerrymandering in NH and claim NH-01 easily.

And push NH-02 into ME-01 territory for Republicans?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Smart move would be to pass fresh gerrymandering in NH and claim NH-01 easily.

I know this is probably a troll post, but you do realize that basically every county in NH is trending strongly Democratic, right? Also, Chris Sununu will almost certainly be a one-termer anyway.

-I think, like, two (Grafton and Carroll) have trended Dem since 2000.

[smoltchanov]

NH-01, it may be time for the GOP to just give up, rather than spend a lot every two years. It's possible a social liberal and fiscal moderate could win, but what's the point if the candidate is a RINO like that?

Even such Republican (and there are few of such Republicans remaining in NH) will be to the right of CSP. So - it makes a perfect sense: you don't have a "candidate of your dream" everywhere.

[Strudelcutie4427]

NH-1
NH-2
NY-3
NY-25
PA-17
NJ-5
FL-7
FL-13
MI-5
WI-3
IL-10
IL-17
MN-1
MN-7
MN-8
IA-2
AZ-1
NV-3
NV-4