Trump/Pence (R) vs. Warren/Castro (D) vs. Paul/Amash (L)
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  Trump/Pence (R) vs. Warren/Castro (D) vs. Paul/Amash (L)		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Trump/Pence (R) vs. Warren/Castro (D) vs. Paul/Amash (L)  (Read 1650 times)
impactreps
dcushmanjva
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« on: January 31, 2017, 04:36:08 AM »
President Trump's approval rating on Election Day is 44%. He and Vice President Pence faced no opposition in the primaries. Sen. Elizabeth Warren won a closely fought Democratic primary over Cory Booker, Tim Kaine, and Martin O'Malley (among others), and chose former HUD Secretary Julian Castro as her running mate. Sen. Rand Paul left the Republican Party in 2018 now that the President has remade the GOP into a populist conservative party, running with former Rep. Justin Amash as his running mate. GDP growth is 2.2%, unemployment is 5.1%, and situation in the Middle East is pretty much the same. What does EV and popular vote look like, with maps?
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catscanjumphigh
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2017, 06:05:02 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2017, 06:39:11 AM by catscanjumphigh »
356-182 I meant to give NH to Trump.
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catscanjumphigh
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« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2017, 06:38:29 AM »
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44% is better than where he would've been at in 2016 as far as "approval rating."  Elizabeth Warren would be seen as a crazy witch from the senile left.  Polls might show Trump trailing by 17 in August, but as long as he says whatever comes to mind without worrying about the consequences, things will turn our alright as we saw a few months ago.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2017, 02:13:11 PM »
That's easily a Trump victory.
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Donerail
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2017, 02:27:14 PM »
Split right-wing vote=easy Dem win
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2017, 02:47:13 PM »
Quote from: SJoyce on January 31, 2017, 02:27:14 PM
Split right-wing vote=easy Dem win

This.

People in this thread thinking this is an easy win for Trump are delusional.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2017, 03:43:49 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2017, 03:46:22 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Quote from: Confused Democrat on January 31, 2017, 02:47:13 PM
Quote from: SJoyce on January 31, 2017, 02:27:14 PM
Split right-wing vote=easy Dem win

This.

People in this thread thinking this is an easy win for Trump are delusional.

Delusional if we assume Paul/Amash will be a popular ticket, that's not likely. With GDP up and unemployment slightly down, why would Americans be so upset? We're getting to a point in our politics where voters are satisfied with mediocre results, at least for an incumbent president. Warren would have her best bets in 2024, but she would be old as hell by then.
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impactreps
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2017, 05:11:16 PM »
Even now I think most Democrats think Trump's victory was a fluke caused by Hillary's unique weaknesses. If Trump seems somewhat vulnerable now, after only a week and a half, I would think he'd still be vulnerable in 4 years if conditions pretty much remain the same. Wouldn't most A-List Democrats want to be known as the one who unseated Trump?

As for Paul, he might be compelled on principle to run against a President who presides over a major expansion of government power. Plus he despises Trump so that would weigh in also. I see him topping out at 7-8% of the vote and winning Utah at most?
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2017, 05:24:56 PM »
I think Trump very narrowly wins this one, although I bet Warren wins the popular vote. The big unknown here, though, is how popular Warren is and how her campaign goes.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2017, 07:27:18 PM »
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Donerail
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2017, 11:08:05 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 31, 2017, 03:43:49 PM
Quote from: Confused Democrat on January 31, 2017, 02:47:13 PM
Quote from: SJoyce on January 31, 2017, 02:27:14 PM
Split right-wing vote=easy Dem win

This.

People in this thread thinking this is an easy win for Trump are delusional.

Delusional if we assume Paul/Amash will be a popular ticket, that's not likely. With GDP up and unemployment slightly down, why would Americans be so upset? We're getting to a point in our politics where voters are satisfied with mediocre results, at least for an incumbent president. Warren would have her best bets in 2024, but she would be old as hell by then.
You don't need "popular," you just need him to pull 5-8%. Say what you will about Rand Paul, but I'm confident in his ability to do a couple points better than Gary Johnson.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2017, 12:14:07 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2017, 12:21:57 PM by L.D. Smith »
That's asking for a Carter style re-election loss.


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DPKdebator
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2017, 08:44:45 PM »
Why would Iowa flip but not Ohio in such a landslide?
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Donerail
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2017, 09:37:25 PM »
I'm sticking with this map:
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Figueira
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2017, 10:25:17 PM »

Can we please stop with this Rhode Island thing?
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Eharding
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« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2017, 10:27:13 PM »

-But demographics.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2017, 10:34:45 PM »

269: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 44.9%
266: Elizabeth Warren/Joaquin Castro - 44.6%
3: Rand Paul/Justin Amash - 10.2%
Others - 0.3%
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Eharding
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« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2017, 11:56:33 PM »
Quote from: Kingpoleon, Never The Best/Worst Poster on February 01, 2017, 10:34:45 PM

269: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 44.9%
266: Elizabeth Warren/Joaquin Castro - 44.6%
3: Rand Paul/Justin Amash - 10.2%
Others - 0.3%

-Paul is gonna take away votes from Trump in NH. Trump'd end up doing worse there than in 2016.
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