States closer than 4% in past 4 elections

[SCNCmod]

EDIT: I added 2000

States closer than 4% in past 5 elections.  (Blue- Dems won ... Red- Repubs won)

Any general thoughts on what this indicates for 2020?  
Or which Dem Nominee may be the strongest?

Bush/Gore
1. Florida, 0.0092%
2. New Mexico, 0.061%
3. Wisconsin, 0.22%
4. Iowa, 0.31%
5. Oregon, 0.44%
6. New Hampshire, 1.27%
7. Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 1.87%

8. Minnesota, 2.40%
9. Missouri, 3.34%
10. Ohio, 3.51%
11. Nevada, 3.55%
12. Tennessee, 3.86%


Bush/Kerry
1. Wisconsin 0.38%
2. Iowa 0.67%
3. New Mexico 0.79%
4. New Hampshire 1.37%

5. Ohio 2.11%
6. Pennsylvania 2.50%
7. Nevada 2.59%
8. Michigan 3.42%
9. Minnesota 3.48%

Obama/ McCain
1. Missouri 0.13%
2. North Carolina 0.33%
3. Indiana 1.03%
4. Nebraska's 2nd  1.21%

5. Montana 2.26%
6. Florida 2.82%

Obama/ Romney
1. Florida, 0.88%

2. North Carolina, 2.04%
3. Ohio, 2.98%
4. Virginia, 3.87%

Trump/ Clinton
1.  Michigan, 0.22%
2.  New Hampshire, 0.37%
3.  Pennsylvania, 0.72%
4.  Wisconsin, 0.76%
5.  Florida, 1.20%
6.  Minnesota, 1.52%

7.  Nebraska 2nd Dist, 2.24%
8.  Nevada, 2.42%
9.  Maine, 2.96%
10. Arizona, 3.55%
11. North Carolina 3.66%

[/]

FL and NC were the only states won within 4% in 2008, 2012, and 2016.

[SCNCmod]

Wisc/Mich/Penn were all on the list for Bush/Kerry & Trump/Clinton ... but neither of the Obama wins (when he had strong turnout in Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee).

I remember watching election returns this year... and even though Trump had early leads in Wisc/Mich/Penn ... the Commentators said the Clinton Campaign was saying that Clinton would make up the difference when the votes from Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee come in.

So turnout in these 3 cities ... or a small marginal difference in the rural areas of these states ... will be important in 2020.

[SCNCmod]

FL and NC were the only states won within 4% in 2008, 2012, and 2016.

And both went slightly more Republican each time:

FL: ( 2.82 Dem) .. ( .88 Dem) ... ( 1.20 Rep)

NC: *( .33 Dem) .. ( 2.04 Rep) ... ( 3.66 Rep)

*2008 is the only time Dems have won NC in the past 45 Years

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The sheer number of close states in 2016 in contrast to 2012 is really interesting

[DPKdebator]

Here's what each election would look like with every state less than 4% going to a certain candidate (essentially a 4% swing):

[100% pro-life no matter what]

You have Hawaii as a solidly Trump state

[DPKdebator]

You have Hawaii as a solidly Trump state

Whoops, that's an error

[Sumner 1868]

The sheer number of close states in 2016 in contrast to 2012 is really interesting

Yes, this was definitely not a mandate election.

[Blackacre]

2016 had more states within 2 points than 2008 had within 4. That is weird

[SCNCmod]

Wisconsin's margin was under 1% in the 3 non-Obama elections... I didn't remember Wisc being so close in 2000 & 2008

[Arbitrage1980]

Wisconsin's margin was under 1% in the 3 non-Obama elections... I didn't remember Wisc being so close in 2000 & 2008

Bush killed it in the WOW counties in Wisconsin. In 2008 Obama CRUSHED it in WI, winning it by 14 points. It was called right away after the polls closed. The contrast with 2016 is pretty stark.