Primarying Trump

[Mister Mets]

It does seem that Trump will be the first President in a generation to draw a prominent primary challenger (defined purely as someone with a credible resume to run for President) although the Republican voters do back Trump heavily.

What are your thoughts on the possibilities? What would be the best strategy?

Win or lose (and it's probably going to be a loss) I think it is important to give Republican voters a chance to vote for an alternative to Trump. The best approach would be for the anti-Trump Republicans to back one candidate, rather than have the vote be split.

[Joey1996]

Unlikely, I think Kasich is more likely to mount an independent campaign in the general.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

[TML]

As Presidents Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 can attest, a primary challenger to Trump will significantly decrease Trump's chances of winning reelection, even if Trump triumphs over his primary challenger(s).

[Mr. Morden]

As Presidents Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 can attest, a primary challenger to Trump will significantly decrease Trump's chances of winning reelection, even if Trump triumphs over his primary challenger(s).

Correlation does not imply causation.

[pbrower2a]

As Presidents Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 can attest, a primary challenger to Trump will significantly decrease Trump's chances of winning reelection, even if Trump triumphs over his primary challenger(s).

Correlation does not imply causation.

The problem with a primary challenger is that that challenger leaves plenty of unspent cartridges around for the nominee of the other Party to use.

The problem for any challenger is that Trump will win the nomination easily and will control the Convention. Sure, his speeches will offend Democrats, but that is exactly what his core support wants anyway. These people are the bulk of the Republican Party now.

Think about it: the supporters of Goldwater and McGovern, both of whom their opponents castigated as dangerous extremists, were more wildly enthusiastic about their nominee than were those of Eisenhower, Nixon... or Obama. But we know who won. If you want to see who is going to win, the least reliable way to find out will be from watching the Party conventions. See who faces the least-effective catcalls. See, after the convention, which side can get its message out instead of having to dodge those who disapprove of their candidate.  See who has the fewest defections from the usual coalition of his Party. Above all, watch the polls.   

 

[Mister Mets]

As Presidents Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 can attest, a primary challenger to Trump will significantly decrease Trump's chances of winning reelection, even if Trump triumphs over his primary challenger(s).

Correlation does not imply causation.

Yeah, it could also be that weaker candidates attracted prominent challengers. Efforts to keep Trump from being primaried would treat a symptom, but not the underlying problem.

Nixon was primaried by two members of Congress in 1972 and obliterated them, before going on o win 49 states.