http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/sabato-it-cant-be-done/I know Sabato blew the election this year, but most of us it.
I, and I assume others, did have it in the back of our heads that Trump could well win several rust belt states. Just keep in mind, that they could swing back insanely to the Democrats if those jobs Trump promises do not return. Just in 2008, Obama was called the victor in PA, MI, and WI almost immediately, won Indiana and came without 0.2% of winning Missouri.
Just posting this article to remind people that conventional wisdom early on, often does not happen.