Reporting Patterns by State?
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  Reporting Patterns by State?
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Author Topic: Reporting Patterns by State?  (Read 1047 times)
Reds4
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« on: November 08, 2016, 01:33:54 AM »

Was wondering if I could get some input from others on the time it takes to report by state. I love following the results as closely as I can, and I know some starts have patterns over the years as far as which counties report first and last.

Virginia- Republican areas report first, with the Democratic strongholds last
Pennsylvania- The big cities have reported early if I recall in the past.


What about other states? Any trends on voting results by time?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2016, 01:52:27 AM »

These competitive states tend to have a Republican counting bias: Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Virginia.

These tend to have a Democratic counting bias: Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and sometimes North Carolina.

Anyone can feel free to add to my list, if they like.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2016, 02:08:15 AM »

Georgia has a Republican counting bias; it will likely be 60% Republican or more with the first results. It'll linger between 56-59% Republican for an hour or more, before beginning to drop relatively quickly as the urban areas start reporting. If the numbers are consistently below that, then we may have an interesting and long night in GA.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2016, 02:48:41 AM »

Indiana and Missouri have R counting biases. Could be important for the Gov/Sen races there.
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Reds4
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2016, 03:27:36 AM »

Would it be fair to say that Florida has a Republican counting bias as well?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2016, 03:34:54 AM »

Would it be fair to say that Florida has a Republican counting bias as well?

I think it's Democratic actually. Obama was leading Romney by a few points early on, and I recall Crist beating Scott early on as well.
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2016, 03:45:30 AM »

Would it be fair to say that Florida has a Republican counting bias as well?

I think it's Democratic actually. Obama was leading Romney by a few points early on, and I recall Crist beating Scott early on as well.

Obama also had a artificially large lead over McCain early on in FL in 2008 as well.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2016, 05:30:56 AM »

GOP counting bias states: Tennessee, Montana

In the Louisiana Senate primary the early results will be biased against Kennedy and both Democrats (especially Fayard)
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Reds4
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2016, 03:35:11 PM »

Any known reporting bias in Iowa or Colorado?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2016, 04:10:00 PM »

Any known reporting bias in Iowa or Colorado?

In 2014 Braley and Beauprez were ahead for the first little while, so I guess D/R respectively.
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Reds4
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2016, 05:15:28 PM »

Any known reporting bias in Iowa or Colorado?

In 2014 Braley and Beauprez were ahead for the first little while, so I guess D/R respectively.

Thank you, appreciate the help.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2016, 05:20:25 PM »

I think Florida is sort of a horseshoe. It starts out D friendly, then becomes a bit R friendly, and eventually settles somewhere in the middle.
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