LOL @ Daily Kos prediction model

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Right now Daily Kos has the following probabilities:

Clinton chance in WI: 99%
Clinton chance in PA: 99%
Clinton chance in CO: 99%
Clinton chance in NH: 95%
Clinton chance in FL: 74%
Clinton chance in NC: 60%
Clinton chance in NV: 56%

Clinton chance of winning the election: 87%

wut?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016

[Lief 🗽]

Drew Linzer was the most accurate forecaster in 2012 and 2014.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Drew Linzer was the most accurate forecaster in 2012 and 2014.

That's as maybe, but either his state probabilities are wrong, or his election result probability is wrong.  If Trump has a 26% chance at winning Florida, and a 1% chance of breaching any of CO/WI/PA (path number 1) or a 5% chance of getting NH and a coin flip for NV (path number 2), I can't see how that gives him a 13% chance of winning the election.  That's saying, basically, that if Trump wins FL, his chance at taking a state he currently has 1% to 5% in goes up to 50%.  That's crazy.

[Maxwell]

Well, yes, there's not a chance Trump is winning Colorado.

Those Nevada odds are way too low if you ask me.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Well, yes, there's not a chance Trump is winning Colorado.

Those Nevada odds are way too low if you ask me.

Either the polls are wrong, or Ralston is wrong.  My money is on the polls being wrong, given past performance.

[Speed of Sound]

Well, yes, there's not a chance Trump is winning Colorado.

Those Nevada odds are way too low if you ask me.

Either the polls are wrong, or Ralston is wrong.  My money is on the polls being wrong, given past performance.

McDonald would also be wrong. He's called it Safe.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Drew Linzer was the most accurate forecaster in 2012 and 2014.

That's as maybe, but either his state probabilities are wrong, or his election result probability is wrong.  If Trump has a 26% chance at winning Florida, and a 1% chance of breaching any of CO/WI/PA (path number 1) or a 5% chance of getting NH and a coin flip for NV (path number 2), I can't see how that gives him a 13% chance of winning the election.  That's saying, basically, that if Trump wins FL, his chance at taking a state he currently has 1% to 5% in goes up to 50%.  That's crazy.

It is not like probability works, huh?