What would the electoral map look like if the national popular vote was tied?

[Ronnie]

As of now, three national polls included in the RCP 4-way national average (IBD/TIPP, ABC/WashPo, Rasmussen) show a national tie between Trump and Clinton.  State polls aren't necessarily reflecting this reality, but it may be interesting to think about what the map would look like if the national vote was exactly tied.  Do you think the blue freiwal would collapse?  If so, what would be the state(s) to fall?

In my view, it would all come down to Pennsylvania.  I think the state would be decided within half a point in either direction.

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259-259-20

[rbt48]

If the popular vote is close to a tie, NE-2 will favor Trump.  It took a 7 point Obama win in 2008 to give Obama the CD by ~1,500 votes.  The 4 point Obama win in 2012 gave Romney that district by ~18,000 votes

[Ronnie]

If the popular vote is close to a tie, NE-2 will favor Trump.  It took a 7 point Obama win in 2008 to give Obama the CD by ~1,500 votes.  The 4 point Obama win in 2012 gave Romney that district by ~18,000 votes

Ah, that's true.  My bad.

[rbt48]

I like your map, though I think in a PV tie, Virginia might be more of a tossup than Pennsylvania.

[Crumpets]

It would basically be the 272 freiwall. Nevada would be the closest state and could go either way.

[evergreenarbor]

272-266

The 272 freiwal holds, though a recount in Pennsylvania would be disturbingly likely.

[ProudModerate2]

It would basically be the 272 freiwall. Nevada would be the closest state and could go either way.

You are aware that Nevada is not part of the 272 FireWall, correct ?
Clinton can still win without Nevada.

[Ronnie]

It would basically be the 272 freiwall. Nevada would be the closest state and could go either way.

You are aware that Nevada is not part of the 272 FireWall, correct ?
Clinton can still win without Nevada.

I don't think he implied that it is.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Freiwal-Colorado-Wisconsin.  538 said that Trump likely only needs to lose by 1 to win.

[Wisconsin+17]

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This.

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Doubtful, due to a weird statistical effect. If he does better in the NE - in hopeless blue states, this has the effect of reversing the EC favoring a republican. Essentially, in a tie election, he'd outperform Romney and McCain in blue states, and underperform in red states/tossup states.

Hillary could lose by 2 and still win, although that won't happen either.

Also, Trump's cap is 45 percent so far. He needs around 47 to be considered viable. A 45 48 election where the undecided 5 percent splits to 46-52 is not a close election.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

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This.

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Doubtful, due to a weird statistical effect. If he does better in the NE - in hopeless blue states, this has the effect of reversing the EC favoring a republican. Essentially, in a tie election, he'd outperform Romney and McCain in blue states, and underperform in red states/tossup states.

Hillary could lose by 2 and still win, although that won't happen either.

Also, Trump's cap is 45 percent so far. He needs around 47 to be considered viable. A 45 48 election where the undecided 5 percent splits to 46-52 is not a close election.

But don't you know!!! 100% of undecided are shy Trump!!!!! And 28% of Hillary voters too!!!! #MAGA #MPGA #Trump206

[Wisconsin+17]

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I apologize for injecting reason into the debate.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

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I apologize for injecting reason into the debate.

For the record, I agree with you. It's the bedwetters I'm making fun of

[Wisconsin+17]

You captured their essence perfectly.