What will be the first "important" state to be called?

[ShamDam]

By "important," I mean signifying the election one way or another. For example, it's "important" if Pennsylvania gets called for Trump, but if it's called for Clinton, that doesn't necessarily indicate she will win or Trump will lose. By the same token, Iowa getting called for Trump would not be "important," but Iowa getting called for Clinton certainly would be. But what "important" state will come first?

I think by 9 PM ET, New Hampshire will be called for Hillary. That, in my view, would be important because it is the most tenuous state in the 272 freiwall, and would be the first real indicator of the night of a Clinton victory.

(By the way, I acknowledge it could go for Trump, but if it does, I think it is extremely close and not called until very late with the possibility of a recount).

What do you think?

[MT Treasurer]

Actually, I believe it will be Florida.

[ShamDam]

Actually, I believe it will be Florida.

In favor of whom? Or do you mean either way?

[MasterJedi]

Florida, 2 hours after the polls close in the east. For Clinton obviously.

[2952-0-0]

Florida, 2 hours after the polls close in the east. For Clinton obviously.

I doubt Florida will be called until after 11 PM ET, even if Hillary was winning by >5%.

EDIT: answering the OP's question, if Virginia is called before 10 PM, that's a big sign.

[ApatheticAustrian]

FL

just imagine if pubs invade PA....and still lose....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Approximately, what do we think the timeline would be if Trump won by Obama 2012 margins (not that I think he will)?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Approximately, what do we think the timeline would be if Trump won by Obama 2012 margins (not that I think he will)?

in the EC you mean?

won't happen without VA, imho.

[Xing]

So a Virginia call wouldn't count as "important", even if an early call would essentially imply that Clinton is going to win? In that case, probably a combination of PA and the Upper Midwest for Clinton, like in 2012.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Approximately, what do we think the timeline would be if Trump won by Obama 2012 margins (not that I think he will)?

in the EC you mean?

won't happen without VA, imho.

Yes.  I assume that Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina would be fairly quick calls.  Possibly, it could be called with something like Pennsylvania or Michigan at 10:30 ET or so in that scenario?

[ShamDam]

So a Virginia call wouldn't count as "important", even if an early call would essentially imply that Clinton is going to win? In that case, probably a combination of PA and the Upper Midwest for Clinton, like in 2012.

I guess what I'm asking is what will be the first thing that happens on election night which heavily implies one outcome over another. I don't know if Virginia getting called almost immediately for Clinton would qualify, because I feel like that would happen even in a Trump squeaker. In fact, maybe Virginia NOT being called within an hour would qualify as an "important" indicator in Trump's direction.

[Xing]

So a Virginia call wouldn't count as "important", even if an early call would essentially imply that Clinton is going to win? In that case, probably a combination of PA and the Upper Midwest for Clinton, like in 2012.

I guess what I'm asking is what will be the first thing that happens on election night which heavily implies one outcome over another. I don't know if Virginia getting called almost immediately for Clinton would qualify, because I feel like that would happen even in a Trump squeaker. Maybe that's not true?

Clinton winning Virginia would probably happen in a Trump squeaker, but it probably wouldn't be so lopsided that they could call it early. That's what I was saying.

[ProudModerate2]

Pennsylvania.

[izixs]

At this point I'd say Florida. I won't be called at close, but it'd be called perhaps before some of the other important ones. If you count NH, it might be the indicator. The rest will either be too close still, or gimmies. If for some reason its not Florida, either Colorado or Nevada.

[apricot]

Florida, 2 hours after the polls close in the east. For Clinton obviously.

[America Needs R'hllor]

How about Indiana too close to call to signify a probable Clinton victory in actual swing states?

[EpicHistory]

North Carolina. Without it, Trump's path forward becomes extremely difficult.

[Heisenberg]

North Carolina or Florida, due to the fact that they close early and many early vote numbers would already be in.

[musicblind]

Pennsylvania, unless you consider Virginia to be an "important" state. If you consider Virginia to be an important state then... Virginia.