NE NJ

[jman123]

How do you see NE NJ counties going in November? remember, lots of italian americans who love trump there

[jman123]

I think pretty much all of NYC metro will swing to Trump, but it will be most pronounced in Staten Island, Long Island, and the parts of coastal NJ that are similar to either of those places.  In a close election, Trump will win Suffolk and Nassau and flip many of the marginal Obama counties in NJ.

I was thinking that trump would swing in the NYC metro area

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I'm not so sure about Long Island, but I know in New Jersey at least, while there are a large number of Italians still in places like Nutley, Belleville, and Lodi (basically southern Bergen and northeastern Essex Counties), they aren't that huge of a factor anymore, and they were already a pretty Republican demographic anyway. In most suburban areas they are far outnumbered by minorities and wealthy, educated whites. There's an especially large Asian population in Middlesex County, Bergen County right near the Bridge, and in other pockets like Bridgewater (Somerset) and Parsippany (Morris), and as that poll of Asians from earlier today showed they're swinging hard to Clinton. Plus the wealthy educated whites who dominate Somerset, Morris, western Essex/Union, northern/western Passaic, and northern Bergen counties sure as hell aren't swinging to Trump either. Not to mention the blacks and Hispanics in Newark, Elizabeth, and Hudson County who probably aren't too fond of Trump either. So really I expect at least this region to be mostly static or maybe a point or two towards Clinton, though that will likely be canceled out by Trump gains down the Shore.

[dspNY]

Northeast Jersey will swing to Clinton. Scott Garrett is in trouble for the first time ever in NJ-05 because of Trump. The Jersey Shore will swing to Trump but that is not Northeast Jersey...Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Somerset, Union and part of Middlesex qualifies. Everywhere south of where they made Clerks doesn't count

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

My beautiful state is crazy diverse and tons of college grads.  The fist-pumping orange people and the gangsters already voted GOP anyway. 

[Suburbia]

Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield may go Trump and the GOP. The Italians and Irish love Trump's macho style. He'll win Nutley by 6-10 points, maybe. Clinton may do well in Bloomfield. Montclair is a swing area, I suppose. Little Falls, Wayne, etc. may be swing towns in NJ.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield may go Trump and the GOP. The Italians and Irish love Trump's macho style. He'll win Nutley by 6-10 points, maybe. Clinton may do well in Bloomfield. Montclair is a swing area, I suppose. Little Falls, Wayne, etc. may be swing towns in NJ.

MONTCLAIR is a swing area?  Oy vey...

[pikachu]

Yeah, I pretty much agree with interstate and Hockey. People don't seem to understand that whites in New Jersey are more college-educated than in most other states, and the state's actually pretty diverse (and getting even moreso). I can Trump maybe flipping Salem because the margin in 2012 was very tight, but other than that, I'd expect the map to look exactly how it did in 2008 and 2012.

[Cruzcrew]

Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield may go Trump and the GOP. The Italians and Irish love Trump's macho style. He'll win Nutley by 6-10 points, maybe. Clinton may do well in Bloomfield. Montclair is a swing area, I suppose. Little Falls, Wayne, etc. may be swing towns in NJ.

Montclair is one of the most liberal cities in New Jersey

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield may go Trump and the GOP. The Italians and Irish love Trump's macho style. He'll win Nutley by 6-10 points, maybe. Clinton may do well in Bloomfield. Montclair is a swing area, I suppose. Little Falls, Wayne, etc. may be swing towns in NJ.

Montclair is one of the most liberal cities in New Jersey

It's one of the most liberal cities in the COUNTRY  XD

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield may go Trump and the GOP. The Italians and Irish love Trump's macho style. He'll win Nutley by 6-10 points, maybe. Clinton may do well in Bloomfield. Montclair is a swing area, I suppose. Little Falls, Wayne, etc. may be swing towns in NJ.

MONTCLAIR is a swing area?  Oy vey...

Yeah lol Montclair is 27% black, 7.5% Hispanic, and 83% Obama, not exactly a swing area. Wayne on the other hand is 86% white (not sure how much is non-Hispanic white, wikipedia doesn't say, but 7% Hispanic) and 54% Romney, so I could def see that being in contention, with just a narrow edge either way. Little Falls is 87% white, 10% Latino, and 52% Obama, so I really don't see how that could swing over to Trump, I would probably expect Clinton to expand the margin there.