NV-Review Journal: Heck +2

[MT Treasurer]

47% Joe Heck (R)
45% Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

Bendixen & Amandi International conducted the poll between Sep. 27 and Sept. 29 in English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percent either direction.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/election-2016/nevada-poll-shows-joe-heck-and-catherine-cortez-masto-are-close-race-us-sen

[Heisenberg]

Good to see Heck up in a poll with Spanish options, only 8% said neither, some will likely vote for Nevada's famous "None of These Candidates" option. I really hope he wins. As it has been a great week for Hillary maybe he can gain an extra two points or so in the coming weeks. This will really be a nail biter, that's for sure.

[heatcharger]

I'm not gonna unskew, but there are a lot of problems with this poll, including this:

Ralston also said that this poll's LV screen requires that you have voted in the last 3(!!!) cycles. The fact that Clinton is winning Heck is barely leading with that is amazing in itself.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, the likely voter screen is probably far too tight.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Heck is already at the % Heller got, and we still have a month left to go. Still a Toss-Up but Masto is running out of time.

[Xing]

As I've said before, if Heck is overperforming Trump by 5-6%, he has a decent shot at winning. More than that, and I wouldn't hold my breath for Masto. If he's only overperforming Trump by 2-3%, though, I think Masto wins. This race is competitive, but if the final RCP average is Heck+1 or 2, Republicans should be worried.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As I've said before, if Heck is overperforming Trump by 5-6%, he has a decent shot at winning. More than that, and I wouldn't hold my breath for Masto. If he's only overperforming Trump by 2-3%, though, I think Masto wins. This race is competitive, but if the final RCP average is Heck+1 or 2, Republicans should be worried.

This poll suggests that he's overperforming by 3. So that doesn't seem too bad, right? Nevada is a State where I think polls seriously underestimate Democrats.

[Gass3268]

I'm not gonna unskew, but there are a lot of problems with this poll, including this:

Ralston also said that this poll's LV screen requires that you have voted in the last 3(!!!) cycles. The fact that Clinton is winning Heck is barely leading with that is amazing in itself.

It's not unskewing to critique the methoglogical design of a poll. Requiring that you have voted in the last 3 cycles is way to strict and a great sign for both Clinton and Masto.

[Heisenberg]

I'm not gonna unskew, but there are a lot of problems with this poll, including this:

Ralston also said that this poll's LV screen requires that you have voted in the last 3(!!!) cycles. The fact that Clinton is winning Heck is barely leading with that is amazing in itself.

It's not unskewing to critique the methoglogical design of a poll. Requiring that you have voted in the last 3 cycles is way to strict and a great sign for both Clinton and Masto.

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From my understanding, newly registered voters were also included. Or am I wrong?

[heatcharger]

I'm not gonna unskew, but there are a lot of problems with this poll, including this:

Ralston also said that this poll's LV screen requires that you have voted in the last 3(!!!) cycles. The fact that Clinton is winning Heck is barely leading with that is amazing in itself.

It's not unskewing to critique the methoglogical design of a poll. Requiring that you have voted in the last 3 cycles is way to strict and a great sign for both Clinton and Masto.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

From my understanding, newly registered voters were also included. Or am I wrong?

That doesn't mean they'd make it through the LV screen.

Besides, this Adelson poll hasn't released their questionnaire and crosstabs like a normal pollster would.

[Figueira]

Masto and Ross are the two candidates that I currently expect to win despite the polls saying otherwise, but I'm not very confident about either of those. On the other side, I think Todd Young has a much better chance than polls would suggest, although I predict Bayh will eke out a narrow victory.