Is Ohio no longer the bellwether?

[Jesus save us]

According to 538, Ohio is more likely to vote Trump then North Carolina.

Now you might suspect that this is just a Trump-specific phenomenon. But, considering the fact that Ohio's nonwhite population is rather small, and that they're attracting nonwhite immigrants far slower then most other swing states, I think we should consider the possibility that Ohio is permanently ceding it's bellwether status.

In which case, which state should now be considered the foremost bellwether?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's been a while since Ohio has truly been the bellwether.  It was Colorado in 2012.  CO could get it again, but I think Pennsylvania and North Carolina will duke it out for the foreseeable future.

[LLR]

It's gonna be PA or FL for the next 3 cycles or so - NC is still a little while away

[windjammer]

Well,
It has not been all the time the decisive state. It wasn't in 2012, it wasn't in 2008, it wasn't in 2000.
In fact, the only time it was since 2000 was in 2004.

Ohio has always been a tilt rep, varying from Lean rep in 2008 and 2000 to toss up in 2004 and 2012.

[Figueira]

Yeah, "bellwether" just means that it votes for the winning candidate every time. Technically New Mexico has been a bellwether of the PV for its entire existence except in 1976. Even though it's now a solid blue state, it still counts as a bellwether.

So, Ohio will continue to be a bellwether until we see a very narrow Democratic victory, assuming it keeps its current PVI (big if).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

First, Trump is NOT going to carry Ohio.  The only Obama states from 2008 where he has even a reasonable chance are Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, and the electoral votes from ME-2 and NE-2.  Once the fallout of the tape and the debates becomes more clear, I expect the doors on those to start shutting pretty quickly, too.  Second, Ohio will remain a bellwether as long as it keeps voting for winners.  It's pretty evenly divided, it will probably be a while until then.  Although Missouri is still somewhat competitive, I think it's safe to say that it's no longer a bellwether, especially since it went for both McCain and Romney.  It's kind of like Delaware losing its bellwether status in 2000 and 2004 (although in fairness, Delaware has voted for a number of significant losers too, like McClellan in 1864, Hoover in 1932, and Dewey in 1948.)

According to 538, Ohio is more likely to vote Trump then North Carolina.

I trust 538 about as much as any political website.  Their predictions are way too generous to Trump, just as they were way too generous to Obama four years ago.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

First, Trump is NOT going to carry Ohio.  The only Obama states from 2008 where he has even a reasonable chance are Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, and the electoral votes from ME-2 and NE-2.  Once the fallout of the tape and the debates becomes more clear, I expect the doors on those to start shutting pretty quickly, too.  Second, Ohio will remain a bellwether as long as it keeps voting for winners.  It's pretty evenly divided, it will probably be a while until then.  Although Missouri is still somewhat competitive, I think it's safe to say that it's no longer a bellwether, especially since it went for both McCain and Romney.  It's kind of like Delaware and Illinois losing their bellwether status in 2000 and 2004 (although in fairness, Delaware has voted for a number of significant losers too, like McClellan in 1864, Hoover in 1932, and Dewey in 1948.)

According to 538, Ohio is more likely to vote Trump then North Carolina.

I trust 538 about as much as any political website.  Their predictions are way too generous to Trump, just as they were way too generous to Obama four years ago.