Menendez VS Kean Jr. 2018, Who Wins?

[Young Conservative]

A Quinnipiac University poll in 2015 found 53 percent of voters said the Democratic senator should quit, compared with 39 percent who said he should stay in the Senate. Even in Blue new jersey, can a popular and dynastic moderate Republican with experience take down a historically corrupt, unpopular, and longtime serving Democrat in a rematch.

[Maxwell]

If Menendez reaches Corzine level approval ratings, then I think a win for a Republican (potentially even Kean) is possible. But Corzine had an approval rating in the teens and twenties - right now Menendez is a lot higher than that.

[Young Conservative]

If Menendez reaches Corzine level approval ratings, then I think a win for a Republican (potentially even Kean) is possible. But Corzine had an approval rating in the teens and twenties - right now Menendez is a lot higher than that.

Who would be better than Kean for Republicans to beat menendez?

[Anna Komnene]

Corruption has been a thing with Menendez ever since he first ran for the Senate, but I'm not sure how much New Jerseyans (?) are willing to take.  They've stomached it so far, but at some point, it will be the last straw like with Torricelli/Corzine/others.  With the right Republican nominee, they might decide to send him packing.  I hope he just retires.

[Maxwell]

If Menendez reaches Corzine level approval ratings, then I think a win for a Republican (potentially even Kean) is possible. But Corzine had an approval rating in the teens and twenties - right now Menendez is a lot higher than that.

Who would be better than Kean for Republicans to beat menendez?

not even sure - I know Kean isn't a strong candidate but neither is anyone else on the GOP repertoire. Kean seems like the strongest by default.

[Heisenberg]

Frank LoBiondo is another strong candidate, but he is getting up in age and has a lot of seniority in the House (he's close to becoming chairman of a committee IIRC), so I doubt he would run. Also, when he vacates his D+1 seat (which is safe for him) Democrats are likely to pick it up.

[Xing]

Menendez probably won't lose unless his scandal absolutely blows up in his face. And if it does before 2018, he'll definitely face enormous pressure (rightfully so) to retire.

[SATW]

Menendez wins in most scenarios, I think. In a bad midterm for the D's, I say he wins like 52-48. If a decent year, he wins 55-45. Good year for Dems, he nets around 56% to 44%.

I can only see Kean winning if Menendez's ethic issues come back to limelight in a meaningful manner and if Kean can peel away enough independents.

I'm a huge fan of both. Kean Jr is the only R I'd consider supporting over Menendez. If the GOP loses the senate in '16, I'll support Kean, if he runs. If we keep the senate and aren't in danger of losing it in '18, I'll back Menendez.

[Maxwell]

Frank LoBiondo is another strong candidate, but he is getting up in age and has a lot of seniority in the House (he's close to becoming chairman of a committee IIRC), so I doubt he would run. Also, when he vacates his D+1 seat (which is safe for him) Democrats are likely to pick it up.

LoBiondo is also pretty old. He'd be 72 if he ran in 2018.

Jon Runyan might've had potential but he's now retired from politics, for good I think.

[Vosem]

How strong Kean is is hard to say -- he led the polls for most of the 2006 campaign, but then fell rapidly towards the end; with that said, single digits in New Jersey in a Democratic wave is still a pretty strong performance. I think the only known politician who would have a chance here is Kean, and even then it would take a good environment and Menendez as his opponent. He can run without endangering his state Senate seat (and he would still be a fairly young Senator at 50 -- amazingly, he was 38 when he waged his first run), so as long as Hillary is President, I would hope he goes for it.

[Kingpoleon]

If Menendez reaches Corzine level approval ratings, then I think a win for a Republican (potentially even Kean) is possible. But Corzine had an approval rating in the teens and twenties - right now Menendez is a lot higher than that.

Who would be better than Kean for Republicans to beat menendez?

not even sure - I know Kean isn't a strong candidate but neither is anyone else on the GOP repertoire. Kean seems like the strongest by default.

Christine Todd Whitman, Tom MacArthur, or Don Guardian could make it pretty competitive, IMO.

[pikachu]

Menendez will win unless Hillary's extremely unpopular. If he's actually below 20% or something, I don't think he escapes a primary.

[SATW]

If Menendez reaches Corzine level approval ratings, then I think a win for a Republican (potentially even Kean) is possible. But Corzine had an approval rating in the teens and twenties - right now Menendez is a lot higher than that.

Who would be better than Kean for Republicans to beat menendez?

not even sure - I know Kean isn't a strong candidate but neither is anyone else on the GOP repertoire. Kean seems like the strongest by default.

Christine Todd Whitman, Tom MacArthur, or Don Guardian could make it pretty competitive, IMO.

Whitman's been out of office too long and she's too moderate for the base, even in NJ; MacArthur's only been in congress since '15. Guardian would be a decent choice.

I'd prefer Kean followed by Whitman.

[Figueira]

Hopefully Menendez retires.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R pickup if Melendez stays

[Suburbia]

Kean 50%
Menendez 44%

Menendez is seen as corrupt, and if he is still in office by 2018, it could drag N.J. Democrats down. Even worse, if Menendez is primaried or resigns, former Sen. Bob Torricelli may run for Senate. Remember him? He dropped out of his reelection race in 2002 because he was corrupt. Frank Lautenberg was forced out of retirement to run for that seat. Frank Pallone, Ron Rice, Jr., or Steve Fulop may run for Menendez's seat if he resigns or retires in 2018.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/is_torricelli_angling_a_return_to_the_us_senate.html

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Unless his scandal explodes, Menendez isn't going down. Even if it does I think it's more likely he'd retire, which he may do anyway. In that case Fulop probably gets the nod and beats whoever the Republicans put up by 10-12 points.

[Kingpoleon]

Just so we're clear, I'd rate this Tilt/Lean R.