ME-02-Normington Petts Poll: Cain and Poliquin Tied

[heatcharger]

http://www.rollcall.com/cain-and-poliquin-remain-tied-in-democratic-poll-of-maines-2nd-district/

Cain (D) - 45%
Poliquin (R) - 45%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

[heatcharger]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

[Xing]

This poll shows Trump up 4, so I'm not sure what to make of it. I have a hard time buying that Poliquin would underperform Trump by 4, unless LeP*** did do a number on Mainers, and showed them that they have a fetish for insufferable assholes with no redeeming qualities.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

Statisically speaking, internal polls show better results for the sponsoring party than other polls do.

Also, the pollster may be paid to poll the district a certain way so that the candidate can be all "this race is close, send money!" when they are actually several points behind, or simply be paid to poll the district several times until margin of error causes a good-enough result for the campaign to release. Publishing is usually up to the sponsor, not the pollster.

[Gass3268]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

They don't cook the numbers, that's a lie that DD likes to push. The reason it is questionable is that campaigns tend to be selective when they release their numbers in order to push for a better narrative.  We don't get to see all of their polling in order to see a trend.

[Gass3268]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

Statisically speaking, internal polls show better results for the sponsoring party than other polls do.

Also, the pollster may be paid to poll the district a certain way so that the candidate can be all "this race is close, send money!" when they are actually several points behind, or simply be paid to poll the district several times until margin of error causes a good-enough result for the campaign to release. Publishing is usually up to the sponsor, not the pollster.

This is a lie. There is no reason to cook the books. What we see publicly will obviously skew towards the sponsoring party, but there is no reason to give your client bad data. 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

Statisically speaking, internal polls show better results for the sponsoring party than other polls do.

Also, the pollster may be paid to poll the district a certain way so that the candidate can be all "this race is close, send money!" when they are actually several points behind, or simply be paid to poll the district several times until margin of error causes a good-enough result for the campaign to release. Publishing is usually up to the sponsor, not the pollster.

This is a lie. There is no reason to cook the books.

Uh, you seriously don't think that releasing a poll showing a tied race is far more beneficial to a campaign in terms of getting donations and gettimg people to vote than releasing a poll showing them down 7 or 8 points?

[Gass3268]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

Statisically speaking, internal polls show better results for the sponsoring party than other polls do.

Also, the pollster may be paid to poll the district a certain way so that the candidate can be all "this race is close, send money!" when they are actually several points behind, or simply be paid to poll the district several times until margin of error causes a good-enough result for the campaign to release. Publishing is usually up to the sponsor, not the pollster.

This is a lie. There is no reason to cook the books.

Uh, you seriously don't think that releasing a poll showing a tied race is far more beneficial to a campaign in terms of getting donations and gettimg people to vote than releasing a poll showing them down 7 or 8 points?

What we see publicly is obviously going to be a good result, but the issue isn't the quality of the data but the campaign choosing to publicly release the good result. You could poll a race 4 times over 2 weeks, 3 polls don't look so good but 1 does, they can all be vaild but obviously you want to release the better poll.

[smoltchanov]

If real - very good result for Cain. District turned right of late, and it's one of the most suitable districts for Trump as well. In addition - Cain is a very solid liberal (even more so then Poliquin is a solid conservative), and, as such, may NOT be the best Democratic candidate for this particular district...

[mencken]

If a Cain internal can only show a tie, Poliquin is clearly favored.

I don't get this. What incentive does Normington Petts have to cook the numbers to make them favorable to Cain? Campaigns hire pollsters with good track records.

Statisically speaking, internal polls show better results for the sponsoring party than other polls do.

Also, the pollster may be paid to poll the district a certain way so that the candidate can be all "this race is close, send money!" when they are actually several points behind, or simply be paid to poll the district several times until margin of error causes a good-enough result for the campaign to release. Publishing is usually up to the sponsor, not the pollster.

This is a lie. There is no reason to cook the books.

Uh, you seriously don't think that releasing a poll showing a tied race is far more beneficial to a campaign in terms of getting donations and gettimg people to vote than releasing a poll showing them down 7 or 8 points?

What we see publicly is obviously going to be a good result, but the issue isn't the quality of the data but the campaign choosing to publicly release the good result. You could poll a race 4 times over 2 weeks, 3 polls don't look so good but 1 does, they can all be vaild but obviously you want to release the better poll.

So obviously that is going to affect the bias of the result if only optimistic results are made public.

[Heisenberg]

Poliquin should win by 4-5 points in the end.

He's got this.

[Heisenberg]

Poliquin should win by 4-5 points in the end.

He's got this.

All I can say is: Thank god this isn't NH, otherwise Poliquin would be toast, lol.

While NH-01 still has an R+1 PVI, I expect it to have one of about D+2 at the end of the year, and then by 2020, D+5 or more when 2012 is cycled out. ME-02 on the other hand should have an R+ PVI in 2020 or 2024.

[KingSweden]

If real - very good result for Cain. District turned right of late, and it's one of the most suitable districts for Trump as well. In addition - Cain is a very solid liberal (even more so then Poliquin is a solid conservative), and, as such, may NOT be the best Democratic candidate for this particular district...

Emily Cain is most certainly not the best Dem for this district. Troy Jackson would have held it two ears ago and held it now

[smoltchanov]

If real - very good result for Cain. District turned right of late, and it's one of the most suitable districts for Trump as well. In addition - Cain is a very solid liberal (even more so then Poliquin is a solid conservative), and, as such, may NOT be the best Democratic candidate for this particular district...

Emily Cain is most certainly not the best Dem for this district. Troy Jackson would have held it two ears ago and held it now

+100. Democrats (IMHO, as usual) need a working-class moderate populist liberal (with small dose of conservatism on guns and some other matters) here......