If free trade ended...

[tik 🪀✨]

Following a slew of scandals involving the safety of goods freely imported from developing countries without government-regulated standards for the safety of produced goods and inhumane working conditions and an economic crisis highlighting the loss of American manufacturing jobs to said developing countries, decisive action is taken to impose prohibitive tarrifs on all imported goods. An emphasis on American-made goods and self-sustaining energy defines market policies. NAFTA is not rewritten or revised, but abolished altogether.

That said, extrapolate how relations with specific countries develop (namely China, of course, as well as Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Middle Eastern nations) as well as with businesses that have moved production overseas in favour of cheap labour and resources. Does the labour market flourish or remain stagnant, and at what cost to international relations? Do any wars ensue? What of the trade deficit with China? Inflation? Do other countries impose similar tarrifs on imported goods from the US?

The possibility of such a scenario is not likely, of course, but this is something of which I'm curious to see responses, especially among posters who understand macroeconomic polices better than I do (something not hard to accomplish )

[2952-0-0]

Senators Smoot and Hawley will be snickering in their graves.

[Joe Republic]

Senators Smoot and Hawley will be snickering in their graves.

[nitpick] Willis Hawley was not a senator. [/nitpick]

[Lief 🗽]

Economic collapse, worldwide Depression, the government is probably overthrown, nuclear war, etc.

[tik 🪀✨]

Economic collapse, worldwide Depression, the government is probably overthrown, nuclear war, etc.

[tik 🪀✨]

Anyway the point of this thread was to make up specific consequences in a chronological sort of way. Make up a doomsday scenario if you like.

[opebo]

Not as big a change as they'd like to have you believe.  If you mean the end of 'free' trade with the slave-countries, then the price of shoddy junk at Wall-Mart goes up drastically.  Conversely there are more jobs, so the net is not hugely negative, except for the profits of importers of course.  Europeans already have a tendency to buy far fewer gee-gaws, but higher quality, more expensive ones - americans would just have to adjust in this way.

On the other hand if you mean the end of trade with civilized parts of the world like Europe or (stretching the definition) Japan, then yes, some form of economic collapse would be likely.

[dead0man]

A lot of world poor will starve to death, a lot of the world non-poor will be bitching because they can't get 3/4's of the sh**t they could get last week (like alternator's for my Mazda's).  It would suck balls for everybody.  Large countries with tons of resources would fare well enough after a decade or so of some really hard times.  China (after HUGE population losses), Russia, the US, Canada, some of mainland Europe and S.America would all hurt, but survive fairly well in time.  I'm guessing the UK and Japan would be seriously f-ed.  Any country not in a position to feed itself would have instant problems.

[2952-0-0]

Here's my stab:

Immediately after it becomes clear that the nincompoops in Washington are staying put, the EU, Japan, China, and other major powers all massively raise tariffs on US exports.

Within weeks, many heavy industries such as Boeing collapse. What's important is that the US is still a huge manufacturer, except that machinery is used so that less manpower is needed. Thus, all those industries are wiped out.

After several months, China and Japan exercise the nuclear option and sell a large portion of their dollar and US Treasury bonds, causing a herd mentality that causes the US Dollar to get decimated. The rest (hyperinflation, 30% unemployment, protests, riots, etc) follows naturally.

Most other countries will go through a painful recession, but the USA would be worst hit.

We're all too dependent on world trade by now. This is not an option.

[dead0man]

We can feed ourselves, how could we possible be worse off than nations that can't?

[2952-0-0]

Only if the US Government nationalizes the grain fields and plans distribution so that the Chinese cannot bid high and buy it. Short of Karl Marx coming out of his grave, I can't see that happening.

The same thing can be said about this thread.

[dead0man]

oh...i missread "if free trade ended" as "if international trade ended" for some God danged reason.  Sorry.

[DanielX]

Think about what happened after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Any large-scale increase in tariffs (such would be the result of "ending free trade" completely) will completely bollix the global economy. Imports and exports will both collapse, jobs created by trade will by and large disappear, and that's just only the beginning.

China threatening the "nuclear option" makes a good deal of sense, as they depend on exporting to the US at least as much as we depend on imports from them, if not more so. A collapsing dollar would only make things worse.

It does not help that the government response that I would expect most would include massive relief spending, tax increases on the rich, nationalization of failing industries, and no attempt to correct the disastrous trade policy.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The economy would suck and we'd have depression 2.0 within 6 months.