Suffolk: 52% of Clinton Supporters are at least somewhat likely to split-ticket

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

53% of Trump supporters say they won't.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/09/01/good-news-gop-most-clinton-voters-say-theyll-split-their-ticket/89643530/

[IceSpear]

In reality, 90% of the country (at least) will vote straight ticket.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In reality, 90% of the country (at least) will vote straight ticket.

I don't think this quite squares up with what we're seeing in the polling. With the exception of Todd Young, Ron Johnson, and perhaps John McCain, every incumbent republican senator is expected to outperform Trump by several points. There will be a number of house races where the republican candidate is likely to overperform Trump significantly as well; FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, CA-10, CA-21, CA-7, WA-8, NJ-2, NJ-3, ME-2, MN-3, AZ-2 come to mind pretty quickly.

[IceSpear]

In reality, 90% of the country (at least) will vote straight ticket.

I don't think this quite squares up with what we're seeing in the polling. With the exception of Todd Young, Ron Johnson, and perhaps John McCain, every incumbent republican senator is expected to outperform Trump by several points. There will be a number of house races where the republican candidate is likely to overperform Trump significantly as well; FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, CA-10, CA-21, CA-7, WA-8, NJ-2, NJ-3, ME-2, MN-3, AZ-2 come to mind pretty quickly.

Yes, I said 90% will vote straight ticket, not 100%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In reality, 90% of the country (at least) will vote straight ticket.

I don't think this quite squares up with what we're seeing in the polling. With the exception of Todd Young, Ron Johnson, and perhaps John McCain, every incumbent republican senator is expected to outperform Trump by several points. There will be a number of house races where the republican candidate is likely to overperform Trump significantly as well; FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, CA-10, CA-21, CA-7, WA-8, NJ-2, NJ-3, ME-2, MN-3, AZ-2 come to mind pretty quickly.

Yes, I said 90% will vote straight ticket, not 100%.

It just seems when you have such a long list of races where the republican is expected to run ahead of Trump, that it would be fairly easy to get above 10% of all voters in the country splitting their ticket.

[Heisenberg]

In reality, 90% of the country (at least) will vote straight ticket.

I don't think this quite squares up with what we're seeing in the polling. With the exception of Todd Young, Ron Johnson, and perhaps John McCain, every incumbent republican senator is expected to outperform Trump by several points. There will be a number of house races where the republican candidate is likely to overperform Trump significantly as well; FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, CA-10, CA-21, CA-7, WA-8, NJ-2, NJ-3, ME-2, MN-3, AZ-2 come to mind pretty quickly.

Yes, I said 90% will vote straight ticket, not 100%.

It just seems when you have such a long list of races where the republican is expected to run ahead of Trump, that it would be fairly easy to get above 10% of all voters in the country splitting their ticket.

If this was a normal election, the number of ticket-splitters probably wouldn't be as high. But this year, both candidates are strongly disliked by the public, There are a decent number of people who are voting for Clinton only because they perceive her as the lesser evil (mainly turned off by Trump's rhetoric), but vote Republican downballot, because a.) They know their local Congressman is not Trump, and b.) They see that as a check on Clinton. That's my theory.

[Figueira]

This would be a lot more useful if we had info on what races they're planning on split ticketing for.

Also, it would be nice to know if it's "I'm planning on voting for Hillary Clinton and Pat Toomey" or "I'm voting for Hillary, but I'm open to maybe voting for a Republican or two downballot. I'm a nice open-minded independent, after all."

[Ebsy]

Means next to nothing methodologically.

[Virginiá]

Is there actually any meaningful evidence that significant amount of voters even think about a "check on Clinton"? This is pretty much exactly what the GOP is trying to push and I really doubt most voters are even thinking about that. Besides some obvious races (Ohio/Arizona for example), voters really aren't splitting their tickets enough for Republicans to avoid catastrophic losses in the event of a large Clinton win:



Even where they do split, they are offset by split ticket voters from the other side. If Republicans expect to cruise through this election unscathed with these kinds of trends, then they better hope for a very close Clinton win.

On top of that, the generic congressional ballot has been very favorable to Democrats for over a year now. I don't think it has gone +Republican more than once or twice in that entire time, with the rest having an average of +4 - +6. Though, this is mostly applicable to House races (obviously), but combined with the other data we are seeing, Republicans should really be worrying big time.

Anyway, I'm sure a number of Republican Senators will beat the odds, but again, anyone expecting some 1996 scenario is going to be disappointed. Decades of trends are not going to suddenly undergo a major reversal just because Republicans desperately push some "check hillary" narrative.

[Figueira]

In Massachusetts, Republican gubernatorial candidates campaign as a check on the Democratic legislature, and it works because Democrats' veto-proof majorities are safe. Clinton's victory, however, is not safe.