Atlasia Chronicle - Mid-July 2016 Polling

[Clyde1998]

If these numbers hold up, then the highest polling Labour 'candidate' against Leinad will be a shock to everyone

How could you, Clyde? This is like clickbait but you can't even click on it!

These 12 Labor Candidates that Crush Leinad... FEDERALISTS HATE US! Number 11 WILL SHOCK YOU!

Was Far Behind
NOW NOT AS FAR BEHIND



Local Laborite Discovers One Weird Trick To
BOOST SAGGING POLL NUMBERS!




Federalists Hate Him!




Click Here To Learn The Truth!

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

my wild guess would be scott or flo

[Blair]

my wild guess would be scott or flo

Or you

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well I'm not the shock candidate so it's not me

Of course, I'm, the savior.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Well I'm not the shock candidate so it's not me

Of course, I'm, the savior.

Kalwejt/Duke 2016!

[NeverAgain]

When will the poll close/When will the results be up. Sorry for my impatience, just excited.

[Clyde1998]

When will the poll close/When will the results be up. Sorry for my impatience, just excited.

I'm putting the headline figures up for some of the questions now. I've been a bit busier than expected in the last few days. Sorry about the delay.

[Clyde1998]

Headline Figures (vs Leinad)
Evergreen - 45.4% (+12.0)
DKrol - 43.2% (+5.1)
Flo - 42.2%
Blair - 41.3% (+0.7)
Clyde - 39.7%
Smith - 39.6% (+6.7)
Truman - 39.0% (-3.8)
Peebs - 37.7%
NeverAgain - 37.5% (-0.2)
A.Scott - 36.9%
Darthebear - 35.8% (-1.7)
1184AZ - 32.8%

Common Market Agreement
Yes - 74.4% (-1.5)
No - 25.6% (+1.5)

Issues
NATO Membership - Sup 85.1%; Opp 10.9% - Net +74.1
Increased Regional Powers - Sup 72.2%; Opp 6.9% - Net +65.3
UN Membership - Sup 72.5%; Opp 15.5% - Net +57.0
Continued Possession of WMD - Sup 64.0%; Opp 22.5% - Net +41.5
Increased Immigration - Sup 58.1%; Opp 23.7% - Net +34.4
Compassionate Release - Sup 51.5%; Opp 21.3% - Net +30.2
Free Childcare - Sup 46.0%; Opp 26.0% - Net +19.9
Free Public Healthcare - Sup 40.4%; Opp 29.5% - Net +10.8
Abortion - Sup 44.0%; Opp 43.7% - Net +0.3
Death Penalty - Sup 20.8%; Opp 72.1% - Net -51.3

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

what the sht

[Clyde1998]

With the result that has been produced, I'm considering asking respondents to allow me to check their responses to the Presidential voting intention questions (Labour vs Leinad) to check whether the result is caused by an actual change in opinion, or due to changes in people answering the poll (which the weighting system that I use may not be able to deal with effectively). Although, I would need permission from people to look at these specific responses.

According to the ComRes margin of error calculator, http://www.comres.co.uk/our-work/margin-of-error-calculator/, there would be between 10-12% margin of error for my polls. (I can't get to the recommended MoE of 3% without asking 110 people - which is called an election )

[Blair]

I'll take that solid 0.7% growth

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

37.7%? Wow, I was expecting lower

[This account no longer in use.]

Wow, I wasn't expecting to have 6.7% growth, and I definitely wasn't expecting to do better than Truman.

[Clyde1998]

No contest here...

Federalist Primary - First Preference (Federalist Voters Only)
54.9% - Leinad
6.7% - JoMCaR
6.3% - Classic Conservative
6.3% - JCL
6.3% - NC Yankee
6.3% - PiT
6.3% - Tmthforu94
0.0% - ClarkKent
0.0% - Goldwater
0.0% - Haslam
0.0% - Pingvin
0.0% - Ted Bessell

I'll produce the figures to show what would happen if Leinad doesn't run.

[DKrol]

Impressed with the 5% uptick.

[Leinad]

I'll produce the figures to show what would happen if Leinad doesn't run.

I'm very curious to see both this and Labor results.

[Clyde1998]

I'll produce the figures to show what would happen if Leinad doesn't run.

I'm very curious to see both this and Labor results.

Sorry about the delay - the figures are on their way, however the room that my computer is in is currently undergoing a renovation at the moment, which has reduced my access to my computer. It took roughly three hours to calculate the Labour race last time, due to various issues - without that sort of time, I don't think the results will be up before the 8th - unless the work is completed faster than I'm expecting or there's a suitable location for me to use my computer in the meantime.
The strong performance of Evergreen against Leinad appears to be down to the lack of (two) Federalist voters in the North taking part in the poll, and with them splitting the Federalist vote 50-50 between Evergreen and Leinad. My weighting system, which is based on party membership in each region, appears to be massively up-weighting this result to a national level (to be representative of the actual Federalist membership in the North) - which is causing a (unrealistically, perhaps) good performance for Evergreen nationally. Whereas, including more Federalist voters for Leinad in the region produces a more expected result.

[Clyde1998]

While I remember:

Northern Governor
First Round
Flo [Lab] - 47.3%
Kingpoleon [CR*] - 31.1%
RGN [Fed] - 21.6%
*Now United Alternative

Second Round
Kingpoleon [CR] - 52.7%
Flo [Lab] - 47.3%

Northern Assembly
These results are irrelevant now as both Labour candidates are contesting Congress elections
First Round
A.Scott [Lab] - 46.3%
Spark [Fed] - 38.6%
Clyde1998 [Lab] - 10.5%
Dan [Fed] - 4.5%

[Clyde1998]

Federalist Primary (without Leinad)
Federalist Members First Round
22.4% - ClarkKent
13.1% - Goldwater
13.1% - Ted Bessell
13.1% - Tmthforu94
6.7% - JoMCaR
6.3% - Classic Conservative
6.3% - JCL
6.3% - NC Yankee
6.3% - Pingvin
6.3% - PiT
0.0% - Haslam

All Voters First Round
20.2% - Ted Bessell
16.4% - Tmthforu94
14.1% - NC Yankee
14.0% - ClarkKent
7.7% - JoMCaR
7.5% - PiT
6.7% - Goldwater
6.4% - Classic Conservative
2.6% - JCL
2.6% - Pingvin
1.7% - Haslam