Post PA county map predictions here

[Senator Spark]

This is an updated prediction map for the race in Pennsylvania.

Trump 50%
Clinton 49%

Analysis to come.

[Ronnie]

I think it'll look about the same as the 2012 map, with Berks and Chester counties going Dem.

[Nyvin]

Berks and Chester will probably flip to Dem.    Luzerne won't be a blowout Republican win, but Trump might edge out a slight margin there.   Lackawanna will definitely vote to the left of Erie and Allegheny.    Dauphin will be close either way, but I think Hillary will stay ahead due to Harrisburg.

Monroe county doesn't seem like the kind of place that would swing to Trump, so I'll say Hillary holds that too.

Bucks county is just a tossup, who knows.

[evergreenarbor]

I couldn't get the county map generator to work, so I did this in Paint:



Clinton/Kaine: 52%, 20 EVs
Trump/Pence: 45%, 0 EVs
Johnson/Weld: 2%, 0 EVs
Others: 1%, 0 EVs

Not many changes from 2012. I think the basic political geography of Pennsylvania won't change much in 2016.

[RI]

[mds32]

I think realisticidealist has the most likely map. BUT, I would flip Chester and Bucks county to Trump

[Devils30]

How does one get the county map to work?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Looks right to me.  50/47-48ish Clinton win, right?

This map looks like a Trump win to me, actually. But I don't live in Pennsylvania. Is it like Illinois where the Republican has to run up big margins in the collar counties to win?

[Badger]

I couldn't get the county map generator to work, so I did this in Paint:



Clinton/Kaine: 52%, 20 EVs
Trump/Pence: 45%, 0 EVs
Johnson/Weld: 2%, 0 EVs
Others: 1%, 0 EVs

Not many changes from 2012. I think the basic political geography of Pennsylvania won't change much in 2016.

About right. I'll wait until writing off Luzerne for any Democrat likely winning the state.

And in what alternate reality does anyone believe Centre County flip to Trump?? He's literally the worst possible GOP candidate there, and there are nearly half a dozen counties sooner likely to flip before Happy Valley.

[Lachi]

How does one get the county map to work?

You don't.

[Mallow]

I couldn't get the county map generator to work, so I did this in Paint:



Clinton/Kaine: 52%, 20 EVs
Trump/Pence: 45%, 0 EVs
Johnson/Weld: 2%, 0 EVs
Others: 1%, 0 EVs

Not many changes from 2012. I think the basic political geography of Pennsylvania won't change much in 2016.

About right. I'll wait until writing off Luzerne for any Democrat likely winning the state.

And in what alternate reality does anyone believe Centre County flip to Trump?? He's literally the worst possible GOP candidate there, and there are nearly half a dozen counties sooner likely to flip before Happy Valley.

Was gonna say the same thing.

[ElectionsGuy]

Red - Trump
Blue - Clinton



Red - Trends Republican
Blue - Trends Democratic

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I couldn't get the county map generator to work, so I did this in Paint:



Clinton/Kaine: 52%, 20 EVs
Trump/Pence: 45%, 0 EVs
Johnson/Weld: 2%, 0 EVs
Others: 1%, 0 EVs

Not many changes from 2012. I think the basic political geography of Pennsylvania won't change much in 2016.

Looks about right.

[Breton Racer]

http://diymaps.net/userimages/769891.gif
 Click the link.

Clinton/Kaine- 52%
Trump/Pence- 42%
Other- 6%

[Intell]

Red - Trump
Blue - Clinton



Red - Trends Republican
Blue - Trends Democratic

I don't think Pittsburgh or westmoreland will trend democratic, especially westmoreland, or even the county north of it, trump does alright with non-changing suburbs..

[Intell]

Differance from 2016

Obama -> Trump: Dauphin County, Luzerene County, Northhampton County, Leigh County
Romney -> Obama: Chester County

Trump: 50.3%
Clinton: 47.1%

What will be the highest % Stein, Johnson, Castle counties. If Castle is even on the ballot.

[Nyvin]

Looks like Trump is really struggling in the Philly suburbs.    He's improving from Romney's numbers out in the western parts of the state though.