Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Oregon
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Poll
Question: Rate Oregon and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 91

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Oregon  (Read 916 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: September 29, 2016, 05:48:01 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2016, 07:22:59 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings



Undecided: 5 (New Mexico, Safe D vs Likely D)

Safe Clinton: 167
Likely Clinton: 22
Lean Clinton: 16
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 37
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 60

Clinton: 205
Trump: 115
Toss-Up: 69

Predictions



Clinton: 260
Trump: 134

Oregon: Safe D, 55-39 Clinton.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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E: 1.42, S: -4.70

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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 05:54:12 PM »
Safe D, but could be Likely D in a 50-50 race.

Clinton: 54%
Trump: 41%
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.04, S: -0.24

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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 05:56:13 PM »
Quote from: Chrome on September 29, 2016, 05:54:12 PM
Safe D, but could be Likely D in a 50-50 race.

Clinton: 54%
Trump: 41%

Nah, it'd still be Safe D.

Anyways, Safe D.

Clinton 53%
Trump 40%
Others 7%
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Rand
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2016, 06:00:01 PM »
Clinton Country

Clinton - 52%
Trump - 40%
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2016, 06:09:16 PM »
Oregon will be Safe Dem in November.

Difficult to project the level of 3rd Party support but:

Clinton: 55
Trump:  39
Other:    6


Trump is despised in Metro-PDX in a way that no Republican Candidate has ever been in post New Deal history....

Additionally, Latinos don't vote in high numbers in Oregon, but I suspect you will see some interesting swings in Marion, Polk, Yamhill, and Linn Counties in particular....

Trump will likely do somewhat OK in Southern Oregon, but lose Jackson County and Deschutes County in Central Oregon....

3rd Party numbers will be key to the Dem margin of victory...
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2016, 06:22:38 PM »
Safe D.

Clinton: 52%
Trump: 36%
Johnson: 9%
Other: 3%
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2016, 06:37:34 PM »
Since it's not 2000 anymore, Safe D. Hillary wins 54-40.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2016, 07:00:27 PM »
Safe D, one of the most inelastic states in this here union.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2016, 07:56:17 PM »
Safe D, Clinton 56-40
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Figueira
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2016, 08:14:08 PM »
If third parties were only taking away from Clinton, then it could be Likely D, but they're taking away from both fairly evenly, so Safe D.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2016, 08:39:20 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 08:41:06 PM by Interlocutor »
Safe D, never in doubt.

Clinton: 54%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 3%
Stein: 2%
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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E: -6.19, S: -4.87

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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2016, 09:09:52 PM »
Stein will win, because all of her disillusioned supporters from Oklahoma will move to Portland to vote for her, creating megacoattails throughout the rest of the state.


Safe D

52-40-4-3-1
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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E: -6.58, S: 0.00

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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2016, 05:46:55 PM »
Likely D.

Clinton- 52%
Trump- 45%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2016, 03:49:01 AM »
Safe Democratic.

Clinton: 54%
Trump: 41%
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peterthlee
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2016, 05:09:13 AM »
Safe D-Solid
Clinton 59-38-3
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 12:12:25 PM »
Bumping for more votes.
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