Counties with Largest Hillary Swing
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  Counties with Largest Hillary Swing
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Author Topic: Counties with Largest Hillary Swing  (Read 364 times)
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« on: July 30, 2016, 02:29:36 PM »

Which counties will swing the most to Hillary Clinton and why? We've seen lots of talk about Trump's best counties compared to Romney in 2012.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2016, 02:39:11 PM »

Which counties will swing the most to Hillary Clinton and why? We've seen lots of talk about Trump's best counties compared to Romney in 2012.

In Kentucky, maybe Oldham, Woodford, and Kenton. These places have some rich areas, but some of them tend to be the guiltily rich, not necessarily the Tea Party rich. That's why Kenton will swing more than Boone.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2016, 02:40:31 PM »

DC Metro (Fairfax + Loudon + Prince William + Arlington + Montgomery, etc.).
Miami-Dade
Rio Grande area of Texas (and heavily Hispanic areas anywhere)
College towns (areas with high populations of under 30's)
Suburbs with large numbers of highly educated voters (metros: Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Denver, Columbus, Philadelphia)

And then the most obvious...

Utah and eastern Idaho
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2016, 02:43:03 PM »

I also think some mostly Catholic counties like Nelson will flip outright. I saw a poll that showed Trump is bleeding support among Catholics.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2016, 02:48:13 PM »

Miami-Dade (and that will win her Florida)
Broward and West Palm Beach (Hillary's pro-Israel reputation vs. the idea of Trump making Israel pay for its own security)
Orange (FL) due to rapidly increasing PR population + her good response to the Orlando tragedy vs. Trump's terrible response
Franklin (OH) due to college educated whites
Fairfax and the outer ring DC counties (VA)
Chester and Montgomery Counties (PA)
Waukesha (will remain GOP but that's a NeverTrump bastion)
Every county with a large population center in Utah
Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham and Orange Counties (NC)
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2016, 03:12:17 PM »

In addition to the counties mentioned above, I might add some counties in CA, AZ, and NM with high Latino populations, like Yuma, AZ, for example.
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