AL, AR and SC Congressional Races 2016

[smoltchanov]

Shelby gets another primary challenge:

Former State Senator Shadrack McGill to challenge Richard Shelby for U.S. Senate seat

McGill is crazy lunatic, so - not especially likely..

[/]

Shelby gets another primary challenge:

Former State Senator Shadrack McGill to challenge Richard Shelby for U.S. Senate seat

McGill is crazy lunatic, so - not especially likely..

Alabama.

[MT Treasurer]

New polling from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College indicates that Boozman will easily win his party’s nomination in the upcoming March 1 primary.

Q: There are two Republican candidates for U.S. Senate: Curtis Coleman and Senator John Boozman. If the election were today, for whom would you vote?

23% Curtis Coleman
68% Senator John Boozman

http://ualrpublicradio.org/post/poll-senator-boozman-has-commanding-lead-over-gop-rival#stream/0

[Maxwell]

The fact that Coleman is getting 23% this early is not a great sign for Boozeman.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The fact that Coleman is getting 23% this early is not a great sign for Boozeman.

Early? The primary is on March 1...

[JerryArkansas]

The fact that Coleman is getting 23% this early is not a great sign for Boozeman.

Early? The primary is on March 1...

I think this is very telling, and worrisome for Republicans down the primary line.  A no name polling at 23% in a primary with a noncontroversial incumbent.

[RogueBeaver]

Coleman got 27% against Hutchinson 2 years ago. He's basically a perennial candidate.  Methinks once Eldridge gets steamrollered Dems will either put up nonentities or stop contesting statewide (and congressional) altogether.

[MT Treasurer]

Results from AR and AL are in:

Alabama Senate

GOP: Richard Shelby (R, inc.): 65% ✓    Jonathan McConnell: 28%    Others: 8%
DEM: Ron Crumpton: 56% ✓   Charles Nana: 44%


Arkansas Senate

GOP: John Boozman (R, inc.): 76% ✓     Curtis Coleman: 24%
DEM: Conner Eldridge: 100% ✓

[/]

Results from AR and AL are in:

Alabama Senate

GOP: Richard Shelby (R, inc.): 65% ✓    Jonathan McConnell: 28%    Others: 8%
DEM: Ron Crumpton: 56% ✓   Charles Nana: 44%


Arkansas Senate

GOP: John Boozman (R, inc.): 76% ✓     Curtis Coleman: 24%
DEM: Conner Eldridge: 100% ✓

lmao Ron Crumpton

[This account no longer in use.]

Ron Crumpton actually seems like quite an interesting candidate. I feel like he'd have a chance if not for it being Alabama.

[MT Treasurer]

Alabama US House of Representatives
 
District 1: Bradley Byrne (R, inc.): 60% ✓     No Democratic candidate running
District 2: Martha Roby (R, inc.): 66% ✓       Nathan Mathis (D): 100% ✓
District 3: Mike Rogers (R, inc.): 76% ✓        Jesse Smith (D): 100% ✓
District 4: Robert Aderholt (R, inc.): 81% ✓  No Democratic candidate running
District 5: Mo Brooks (R, inc.): 100% ✓         Will Boyd (D): 100% ✓
District 6: Gary Palmer (R, inc.): 100% ✓      David Putnam (D): 100% ✓
District 7: Terri Sewell (D, inc.): 100% ✓       No Republican candidate running

Arkansas US House of Representatives

District 1: Rick Crawford (R, inc.): 100% ✓    No Democratic candidate running
District 2: French Hill (R, inc.): 85% ✓            Dianne Curry (D): 100% ✓
District 3: Steve Womack (R, inc.): 100% ✓   No Democratic candidate running
District 4: Bruce Westerman (R, inc.): 100% ✓   No Democratic candidate running

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Arkansas US House of Representatives

District 1: Rick Crawford (R, inc.): 100% ✓    No Democratic candidate running
District 2: French Hill (R, inc.): 85% ✓            Dianne Curry (D): 100% ✓
District 3: Steve Womack (R, inc.): 100% ✓   No Democratic candidate running
District 4: Bruce Westerman (R, inc.): 100% ✓   No Democratic candidate running

How the mighty Arkansas Democratic Party has fallen...

[Kingpoleon]

Curtis Coleman is our Tea Party/Evangelical head here. He and Womack are the prominant non-Hutchison/Rockefeller Republicans in the state. He'll always get 20-30%.

As for the general, I'm fairly certain I'll endorse Boozman, but Eldridge seems nice.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Filing in SC began on March 15 and continues til either the 30th or 31st. So far Sanford has only a primary challenge in the 1st. Wilson has two Democrats filed to run against him, and I've seen signs for a Republican. Duncan has a Democratic challenger in the 3rd. Howdy has a Constitution Party challenger. Mulvaney has a Democratic challenger while Clyburn has a sacrificial Republican to run against. Rice in the 7th is the only unchallenged Representative right now. Scott's only opponent so far for the Senate is a Libertarian/Constitution fusion candidate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The challenger I knew was running in the second district has filed but under the American party banner instead of the Republican so it looks like Wilson will not face a primary challenge.

Tim Rice has picked up a Democratic challenger in the 7th, so there will be no unopposed persons on the SC ballot for Congress this year.

Still no Democratic running in the 1st or 4th districts yet. Sanford faces a primary challenge and Gowdy is being challenged by a Constitution Party candidate.

Filing ends on noon, Wednesday the 30th.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Filing is done and assuming the state website is up to date, here's who has filed

U.S. Senate
Bill Bledsoe (L) (C)
Thomas Dixon (D)
Jim Hinkle (A)
Rebel Michael Scarborough (A)
Tim Scott (R) (i)

CD 1
Dimitri Cherny (D)
Michael Grier Jr (L)
Jenny Horne (R)
Mark Sanford (R) (i)
Albert Traverson (A)

CD 2
Arik Bjorn (D)
Phil Black (D)
Joe Wilson (R) (i)
Eddie McCain (A)

CD 3
Hosea Cleveland (D)
Jeff Duncan (R) (i)

CD 4
Michael Chandler (C)
Chris Fedalei (D)
Trey Gowdy (R) (i)

CD 5
Rudy Barnes Jr (A)
Ray Craig (R)
Larry Gaither (A)
John King (D)
Mick Mulvaney (R) (i)
Fran Person (D)

CD 6
James E "Jim" Clyburn (D) (i)
Prince Charles Mallory (G)
Rick Piotrowski (L)
Laura Sterling (R)

CD 7
Mal Hyman (D)
Tom Rice (R) (i)

No idea whether the American Party will be resolving its two contested Congressional races at a convention or by a primary. It envisions itself as a moderate hero centrist party.

[This account no longer in use.]

I though the American Party was a paleoconservative party. Could be wrong, though.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I though the American Party was a paleoconservative party. Could be wrong, though.

The old one from the Nixon era was.  In SC, the American party is a relatively new party founded a couple years ago by a former Republican too moderate to get the gubernatorial nomination and a former Democrat too moderate to get a senatorial nomination.  Their platform is fairly reasonable, so they can be a good place for a protest vote IMO, but I have no illusions they'll ever do more than that.  If Webb or Kasich had tried their hand at a third party run, they probably would have been able to get the American Party ballot line here.  TRUMP's more likely to get the Independence Party (ex-Reform Party) line if he tries a third party run if he thinks he's gonna get screwed out of the Republican nomination (and maybe the United Citizens Party, which at this point is nothing more than a ballot line for hire despite its former glorious heritage.)

[MT Treasurer]

April 2016 Winthrop poll

Tim Scott's approval rating: 51/26 (+25)
Lindsey Graham's approval rating: 41/48 (-7)

[Kingpoleon]

Again, this Arkansas seat won't flip unless Tea Partiers run a Libertarian or Independent candidate for Senate. Eldridge, if he runs a great turnout campaign, could have a floor as high as 45%. From there, it's up to him to win over the moderate Republicans.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Filing is done and assuming the state website is up to date, here's who has filed

U.S. Senate
Bill Bledsoe (L) (C)
Thomas Dixon (D)
Jim Hinkle (A)
Rebel Michael Scarborough (A)
Tim Scott (R) (i)

CD 1
Dimitri Cherny (D)
Michael Grier Jr (L)
Jenny Horne (R)
Mark Sanford (R) (i)
Albert Traverson (A)

CD 2
Arik Bjorn (D)
Phil Black (D)
Joe Wilson (R) (i)
Eddie McCain (A)

CD 3
Hosea Cleveland (D)
Jeff Duncan (R) (i)

CD 4
Michael Chandler (C)
Chris Fedalei (D)
Trey Gowdy (R) (i)

CD 5
Rudy Barnes Jr (A)
Ray Craig (R)
Larry Gaither (A)
John King (D)
Mick Mulvaney (R) (i)
Fran Person (D)

CD 6
James E "Jim" Clyburn (D) (i)
Prince Charles Mallory (G)
Rick Piotrowski (L)
Laura Sterling (R)

CD 7
Mal Hyman (D)
Tom Rice (R) (i)

No idea whether the American Party will be resolving its two contested Congressional races at a convention or by a primary. It envisions itself as a moderate hero centrist party.

The American Party held a convention and I struck out the losers from the above list.  I myself voted absentee Friday in the Democratic primary since I'll be at work all day Tuesday (or at least enuf of the day that I can't get to the voting station while the polls are open).  Incidentally, I actually know the American Party's 5th district nominee.  Nice enuf chap, if a bit nutty, which one has to be to bother running a third-party campaign,