Can Hillary carry 40 or more states states?

[Old Man Willow]

I'd think if your map comes true, WV would surely flip.  IMO, the Obama years weren't a trend, they were an exception.  That's still a Democratic state at heart, and they love Hillary.

As I pointed out in the AR poll thread, they despise her these days: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179653.0

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Historically, polls a few years out actually do give an accurate picture.

That's not true at all.

Sure it is.

Ummm….remember Carter's lead in the 1980 campaign, or Dukakis's lead in 1988, or Bush's lead after the Gulf War (or heck, Perot's lead in May 1992), or how about how McCain was leading every Democratic candidate in 2006?

Perot lost that lead because he dropped out for 3 months.

Exactly. You can't always predict what will happen, especially so far out. I bet no one predicted Perot's candidacy to begin with.

Answering the question, no. Only if the GOP candidate as absolutely awful, in which case they wouldn't be nominated anyway. We can't jump to conclusions before the 2014 primary season is over.

[BaconBacon96]

If the Republicans nominate the right candidate, than sure...

Hillary Clinton-455
Ted Nugent-83/b]

I'm not in anyway saying that Nugent will get the nomination or even run for it, but he's the kind of guy they would have to nominate for Hillary to do so well.

[JRP1994]

Clearly she can. Trump is obviously a joke candidate with no real chance of winning.

[MT Treasurer]

lol

[Ljube]

Lol, this forum is delusional.

Yeah, those posts were made just a couple of days before Indiana.

Hillary hacks should try to be a bit more restrained and the forum will increase in quality significantly.


EDIT: Just saw it was May 2014. My bad. But the remark about the Hillary hacks still stays.

[Mr. Morden]

Historically, polls a few years out actually do give an accurate picture.

That's not true at all.

Sure it is.

Ummm….remember Carter's lead in the 1980 campaign, or Dukakis's lead in 1988, or Bush's lead after the Gulf War (or heck, Perot's lead in May 1992), or how about how McCain was leading every Democratic candidate in 2006?

Perot lost that lead because he dropped out for 3 months.

Actually, he lost that lead just before he dropped out.  Perot was leading in May 1992, but then it shifted into something like a 3-way tie in June, and then when the DNC began in July, the first poll to be released after the convention started showed Clinton gaining a significant lead with Perot dropping fast.  Perot dropped out shortly thereafter.

In any case, the point is that the polls jumped around quite a bit in 1992, just as they have in many other presidential elections.  There's no reason why you should take one snapshot in time more than 2 years before the election, and pretend that that tells you how the election is going to turn out.

I was proved right about the polls changing during the course of the campaign.  I will now accept my accolades. 

[bumpercrop]

She still could. We have 5 months left.

[President Johnson]

Just no

[Higgs]

lol

[Consciously Unconscious]

lol

[Wisconsin+17]

40 states is hard.

I have AL, WV, KY, AR, OK, NE, SD, KA, ND, WY, ID. Even if she wins Utah, and Arkansas, that only gets her to exactly 40.

[ProudModerate2]

Lol, this forum is delusional.

Yeah, those posts were made just a couple of days before Indiana.
Hillary hacks should try to be a bit more restrained and the forum will increase in quality significantly.

EDIT: Just saw it was May 2014. My bad. But the remark about the Hillary hacks still stays.

Ohhhh, OK Ljube.
Keep posting ..... we know how much your posts "increase the quality" of this forum.
Your comments are the best thing since the invention of slice bread.

[RINO Tom]

Ice Spear never thought Hillary would win RACIST West Virginia.  They aren't real Democrats.

[LLR]

This is the most likely (39+DC). If you mean 40 states w/o DC, flip UT or AR.

[IceSpear]

Ice Spear never thought Hillary would win RACIST West Virginia.  They aren't real Democrats.

Huh. This thread actually genuinely surprised me. I never remembered including West Virginia in any of the many, many "Hillary ceiling" maps I made in 2014-2015, just Arkansas. This one must have been an outlier. Touche though, you got me.

I do find it hilarious that my post was prefaced by "if the GOP nominated someone like Trump or Bachmann", LMAO. Oh silly 2014 IceSpear, thinking candidate quality was a far bigger factor than it actually is...

[Landslide Lyndon]

A Republican is guaranteed to carry 13-17 states even if he loses 60/40.