What would the map look like in the event of a PV tie?

[Ronnie]

Trump is not a traditional Republican, so it might be interesting to think about how the map would pan out if he and Hillary ended up with the exact same number of votes nationwide.  I think Donald's problem in this scenario is that he would potentially run up the score in blue states like New York and Michigan while falling short of winning them, leading to swing states being more Democratic than the national average.  While he would perhaps under-perform a generic R in red states in the plains and elsewhere, I'm not sure it'll be enough to compensate for his numbers in deep blue states.

What do you all think?

[rbt48]

I'd guess if the PV is a tie, given the likely huge D margin in California, Trump probably has an EV majority.

[Xing]

272 freiwal and VA, give or take IA.

[Ljube]

Trump 288
Clinton 250

I second that.

[dax00]

Agreed with the map above + NV.
Am I the only one here who favors Trump to win NV?

[Ljube]

Agreed with the map above + NV.
Am I the only one here who favors Trump to win NV?

I also give him a fair chance to win NV.

[Nyvin]

The election would obviously come down to Florida..which would be completely up in the air.

[Ljube]

The election would obviously come down to Florida..which would be completely up in the air.

That's something I predicted more than a year ago. I still think that way.

[Mallow]

Trump 288
Clinton 250

This minus Colorado, for a Trump 279-259 victory (with Iowa (R), MN (D), VA (D), and NH (D) all within 1 point in the margin, but even an IA swing to D would give trump a 273 victory).

[Ljube]

Trump 288
Clinton 250

This minus Colorado, for a Trump 279-259 victory (with Iowa (R), MN (D), VA (D), and NH (D) all within 1 point in the margin, but even an IA swing to D would give trump a 273 victory).

Yes, 273 is Trump's bare minimum which he could probably achieve even if he loses the popular vote.

[Mehmentum]

Colorado was was left of the naton in 2012. It has a high proportion of Hispanics, and a higher than average income per capita.  I really don't see how this state trends R this cycle.

The entire election comes down to a horrible 2000-esqe scenario in Florida.

[Seriously?]

I'd guess if the PV is a tie, given the likely huge D margin in California, Trump probably has an EV majority.

[Ljube]

Colorado was was left of the naton in 2012. It has a high proportion of Hispanics, and a higher than average income per capita.  I really don't see how this state trends R this cycle.

The entire election comes down to a horrible 2000-esqe scenario in Florida.

Nice. That's a Hillary winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral vote scenario.

[Higgs]

Colorado was was left of the naton in 2012. It has a high proportion of Hispanics, and a higher than average income per capita.  I really don't see how this state trends R this cycle.

The entire election comes down to a horrible 2000-esqe scenario in Florida.

Oh dear lord not again.

[LLR]

Based on demographics, this was the closest I could get:

251-244

MN and VA both dem by .4%, PA a pure tossup.

To win, Democrats need:
PA
VA and MN

Republicans need:
PA and MN or VA

Or, alternatively,

232-234

[nclib]

I'd guess if the PV is a tie, given the likely huge D margin in California, Trump probably has an EV majority.

In 2012, Obama would have easily won the EC in a PV tie. Yes, Trump has an unusual coalition, and there wouldn't be a uniform swing, but I wouldn't assume the GOP comes out ahead in a PV tie.

[Mallow]

I'd guess if the PV is a tie, given the likely huge D margin in California, Trump probably has an EV majority.

In 2012, Obama would have easily won the EC in a PV tie. Yes, Trump has an unusual coalition, and there wouldn't be a uniform swing, but I wouldn't assume the GOP comes out ahead in a PV tie.

The difference is demographics. In a PV tie this election, the white vote would probably have to be further right compared to the nation as a whole, and the Latino vote would probably have to be further left. This means more Democratic votes in states that aren't close during close elections (CA, TX, AZ), and more Republican votes in states that are (PA, OH, VA, and IA). That's the reason it could go from a Dem-EV-advantage to a Rep-EV-advantage for a PV tie.

[Clark Kent]

Agreed with the map above + NV.

Am I the only one here who favors Trump to win NV?

I also give him a fair chance to win NV.

Don't worry, your chosen rapist Nazi strongman loves the poorly educated, so I'm sure he'll take care of you two.

Anyways, potentially something like this:

[Ljube]

Agreed with the map above + NV.

Am I the only one here who favors Trump to win NV?

I also give him a fair chance to win NV.

Don't worry, your chosen rapist Nazi strongman loves the poorly educated, so I'm sure he'll take care of you two.

There is no need for personal insults. I hope we can have a civilized discussion. And by the way, I am highly educated.

[Kingpoleon]

Agreed with the map above + NV.
Am I the only one here who favors Trump to win NV?

Nope:

I think Trump would win a state like Nevada as well as CO, two states that liked Perot just as much.

[RaphaelDLG]

The country uniformly trends R (from 2012):
HRC wins with Obama 2012 - FL, OH, VA

Only whites trend R:
TRUMP wins with Romney 2012 + FL, OH, VA, NH

Minorities trend D, whites trend R:
TRUMP wins with Romney 2012 + FL, OH, VA, NH, PA, WI