Will Trump lose any congressional districts in NY?

[ElectionsGuy]

Map Reference --> Click on Map of Congressional Districts.

I don't think he'll lose one.

[Gass3268]

Nope, the real question is how many will he be below 50% in.

[Vosem]

I think there's enough places where it could happen that someone else winning a plurality in 1 district is likelier than not, but there's no specific place where it's too likely. Voted for my childhood congressional district of NY-10, since I think my boy Cruz has a shot there, but it's of course a longshot.

[dax00]

The only chance he has of losing a CD is in NY-12, where he's only up 5 or 6%

P.S. Which troll checked off every single CD?

[Nyvin]

Good chance he'll win every single one.

[rbt48]

I think he'll lose one or two inner city districts in NYC.  I believe he'll fall short of 50% in 10 to 12 CDs.

[bagelman]

We have two legitimate voters state that he will lose 10 and 21. I think he may be below 50% in 21, but why would he underperform in Manhattan?

[cinyc]

3 people voted 10.  Really? 

NY-10 goes from the Upper West Side of Manhattan to Orthodox Jewish parts of Brooklyn.  If the two disparate electorates could agree on a Never Trump, it could be one of Trump's worst districts.  But they probably won't so Trump will win against a divided field, with the Brooklyn part going for Cruz and the Manhattan part going for Kasich.

[PeteB]

Difficult to say. He will probably lose CD 12 and possibly CD 10. He may lose some of the upstate districts but we don't have enough data (in spite of endless polling) to predict that. Only Optimus predicted CD results and, based on that and if he underperforms, Trump could lose 5-6 CDS. He could also win all (except CD 12).

[dax00]

0ptimus had Trump up by 10% in CD10 with a sample size of 518 likely voters, and by my calculations his lead there is effectively 13% over a 2nd-place Cruz.

I think he'll fall below 50% in CDs 10, 12, 15, 21, and 23. Winning all the CDs is almost certain.

[politicallefty]

I don't know that he'll lose any, but there will certainly be at least a few where he is under 50% (which means a 2-1 split with second considering there are three active candidates running).

The question I have is what exactly is a Republican voter in a district like NY-15, where Mitt Romney literally got 3% of the vote (and no, that is not a typo). In 2014, there was no Republican Congressional candidate. And, in 2012, the Republicans won 2.8% (4427 votes). The apportionment of Republican delegates really is absurd. I cannot understand why a D+43 district (NY-15, the most Democratic in the country) should have the same amount of delegates as R+8 NY-27 (the most Republican in the state of New York).

[Mr. Morden]

Out of curiosity, how did the most overwhelmingly Democratic CDs in New York vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary?  I assume McCain outperformed his statewide numbers?  By how much?

[YaBoyNY]

He won't lose a single one.

[Doimper]

Almost certainly not. Cruz is a pariah there and Kasich doesn't have the organization or name recognition to pull it off.

[Vosem]

Looks like he won them all. NY-12 being super close, but Trump pulled it out.

With 100% reporting, Kasich leads by 70 votes. Not quite

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like he won them all. NY-12 being super close, but Trump pulled it out.

With 100% reporting, Kasich leads by 70 votes. Not quite

Just saw that. Damn. I didn't think he could make that up with so few votes. Well, f*** me. NY-12 it is.

[PeteB]

Difficult to say. He will probably lose CD 12 and possibly CD 10. He may lose some of the upstate districts but we don't have enough data (in spite of endless polling) to predict that. Only Optimus predicted CD results and, based on that and if he underperforms, Trump could lose 5-6 CDS. He could also win all (except CD 12).

Am I good or what?

[dax00]

Difficult to say. He will probably lose CD 12 and possibly CD 10. He may lose some of the upstate districts but we don't have enough data (in spite of endless polling) to predict that. Only Optimus predicted CD results and, based on that and if he underperforms, Trump could lose 5-6 CDS. He could also win all (except CD 12).

Am I good or what?

You were very indecisive, to be fair.

[PeteB]

Difficult to say. He will probably lose CD 12 and possibly CD 10. He may lose some of the upstate districts but we don't have enough data (in spite of endless polling) to predict that. Only Optimus predicted CD results and, based on that and if he underperforms, Trump could lose 5-6 CDS. He could also win all (except CD 12).

Am I good or what?

You were very indecisive, to be fair.

But I clearly called CD 12 .

[dax00]

But I clearly called CD 12 .

Compare my:

The only chance he has of losing a CD is in NY-12

to your:

Difficult to say. He will probably lose CD 12 and possibly CD 10. He may lose some of the upstate districts but we don't have enough data (in spite of endless polling) to predict that. Only Optimus predicted CD results and, based on that and if he underperforms, Trump could lose 5-6 CDS. He could also win all (except CD 12).

[HAnnA MArin County]

Am I the only one surprised that he did lose NY-12? That's the Upper East Side, is one of the richest districts in America, and has the most Republicans per capita in New York City, I think? Would have been prime Trump territory, I would assume?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Am I the only one surprised that he did lose NY-12? That's the Upper East Side, is one of the richest districts in America, and has the most Republicans per capita in New York City, I think? Would have been prime Trump territory, I would assume?

The rootless elite hate Trump and everything that he stands for.