Cruz vs. Clinton: California vs. Texas

[Coolface Sock #42069]

In 2012, Mitt Romney got more votes (4.8 million) in California than he did in any other state, even while getting crushed there. Texas gave Mitt the second most votes at 4.5 million.

But Cruz is at least as bad a fit for California as Romney, and he is probably a better fit for Texas. In addition to this, Texas is Cruz's home state. Presidential candidates have historically gotten about a 7% bonus in their home states.

California is also trending left, and Texas is growing more quickly in population than is California.

In a Cruz vs. Clinton election, could Texas become the state in which Cruz gets the most votes?

[YaBoyNY]

7% seems a bit too step in modern times.

[Stańczyk]

I think California will be more Cruz-friendly than most think.

First of all, the California GOP is at heart still "interior west", which is Cruz's stronghold so he'll probably sweep San Bernardino, Imperial, Riverside, and Kern which are where the most CA Republicans are from.

Secondly, Trump bases his support on blue collar white men who are most concerned about outsourcing jobs and closing factories. That's just not as common in California as it is in the east. Trump's just a bad fit for the state, and Cruz (although he will probably do poorly in the bay area) could get quite a few delegates for it.

[Sbane]

I think California will be more Cruz-friendly than most think.

First of all, the California GOP is at heart still "interior west", which is Cruz's stronghold so he'll probably sweep San Bernardino, Imperial, Riverside, and Kern which are where the most CA Republicans are from.

Secondly, Trump bases his support on blue collar white men who are most concerned about outsourcing jobs and closing factories. That's just not as common in California as it is in the east. Trump's just a bad fit for the state, and Cruz (although he will probably do poorly in the bay area) could get quite a few delegates for it.

At least in the primary, Trump's best areas will be Riverside and San Bernardino county, along with the Sacramento suburbs. He may get a decent margin in the Bay Area due to Kasich/Cruz vote splitting.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't get the impression that Ted Cruz is particularly loved by the people of Texas.

[SillyAmerican]

I think California will be more Cruz-friendly than most think.

I don't think so. I actually think that California will end up being surprisingly strong for Trump. But that's simply a gut feeling.