Morning Consult forecasts general election maps

[Virginiá]

Reason #33531 why I hate GE election polling this far out, especially in open races.

Yes, it's useless. Having said that the Clinton v Cruz and Clinton v Trump maps both look fairly reasonable. There's no way Kasich beats Clinton that big though.

I agree. Kasich has a chance at beating Clinton, but nothing like that map.

That map seems like a Republican dream scenario. I suspect that when November rolls around and Hillary and Kasich have been going hard at each other for months, the race will be a lot closer and will end up somewhat resembling either 2004, 2008 or 2012, depending on who leads and by how much.

[IceSpear]

Oh god, so much wrong with this...

Trump winning MAINE? Trump winning the f'ing Portland district? HAHAHAHA!

Kasich winning Oregon, Maine, and Minnesota, but not Iowa, Florida, and Virginia? ayyy lmao

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Clinton vs. Cruz map lines up with my current battleground map, if Cruz wins every battleground state:

However, Clinton vs Trump isn't realistic, because I think Trump is fatally weak in Montana and North Carolina:

This is based on nothing more than hunches and speculation, though.  When real, actual, scientific state polls come out, I plan on tossing these out and starting fresh.

[Ebsy]

Their analysis also has Cruz strangely weak in Kentucky, and Clinton weak in New Mexico vs. Cruz. Also, Georgia competitive with Cruz and Kasich.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Their analysis also has Cruz strangely weak in Kentucky, and Clinton weak in New Mexico vs. Cruz. Also, Georgia competitive with Cruz and Kasich.

It's not analysis, it's unscientific polling.  You might as well run a web poll, or measure twitter followers.

[henster]

People act like Kasich has these huge skeletons in his closets that is just waiting to unleashed were he to be the nominee and his favorability #'s would plummet. Does anyone remember 2010 and 2014, everything has been thrown at him already by Democrats, I am not sure what dark secrets Kasich has that hasn't been uncovered by Ds and used against him '10 or '14.

[Figueira]

People act like Kasich has these huge skeletons in his closets that is just waiting to unleashed were he to be the nominee and his favorability #'s would plummet. Does anyone remember 2010 and 2014, everything has been thrown at him already by Democrats, I am not sure what dark secrets Kasich has that hasn't been uncovered by Ds and used against him '10 or '14.

Three times in four years!

[Slander and/or Libel]

People act like Kasich has these huge skeletons in his closets that is just waiting to unleashed were he to be the nominee and his favorability #'s would plummet. Does anyone remember 2010 and 2014, everything has been thrown at him already by Democrats, I am not sure what dark secrets Kasich has that hasn't been uncovered by Ds and used against him '10 or '14.

I don't know that there are huge skeletons in his closet. Only that he hasn't been in the national spotlight to a broader audience, subject to hardening of opinion. And if he were to get there, it'd be as the tarnished "nominee" coming from a convention where lots and lots of people would be trumpeting his illegitimacy, and for a party that almost nominated an almost-open white supremacist. Taking a few general election polls 7 months out to claim that it'd be a cakewalk for him is just lunacy.

[Xing]

...

[MT Treasurer]

https://morningconsult.com/presidential-election-2016-electoral-college-projection/

Florida

Clinton: 43.3%, Trump: 43.1% (D+0.2%)
Clinton: 44.1%, Cruz: 40.3% (D+3.8%)
Clinton: 43.6%, Kasich: 38.6% (D+5%)

Ohio

Clinton: 42.4%, Trump: 40.4% (D+2%)
Clinton: 41.6%, Cruz: 41.3% (D+0.3%)
Kasich: 49.5%, Clinton: 34.5% (R+15%)

Virginia

Clinton: 44.6%, Trump: 40.1% (D+4.5%)
Clinton: 43.1%, Cruz: 41% (D+2.1%)
Clinton: 41.1%, Kasich: 40.7% (D+0.4%)

Pennsylvania

Clinton: 43.1%, Trump: 41.7% (D+1.4%)
Clinton: 45.7%, Cruz: 36.8% (D+8.9%)
Kasich: 41.1%, Clinton: 40.1% (R+1%)

Wisconsin

Clinton: 43.4%, Trump: 37.9% (D+5.5%)
Clinton: 42.4%, Cruz: 40.2% (D+2.2%)
Kasich: 42.2%, Clinton: 39.1% (R+3.1%)

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton vs. Kasich:

Clinton vs. Trump:

Clinton vs. Cruz:

>30%: Margin of 2 percentage points or less
>40%: Margin of more than 2 but less than 5 points
>50%: Margin of 5-9.9 percentage points
>60%: Margin of 10-14.9 percentage points
>70%: Margin of 15-19.9 percentage points
>90%: Margin of 20 or more percentage points

[pbrower2a]

I have seen suggestions that Utah could be in play if Trump (but not Cruz or Kasich) is the nominee. Arizona is a likely battleground state except with Kasich.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow, Trump is scarily close to winning this election. He only needs to sway 57% of the undecideds in OH/PA combined (assuming no 3rd party/stay home) and a tiny bump from the beautiful resorts at Mar-a-Lago. Trump can have people migrate there! (We have to get rid of the lines!)

Good to see all the extra hatred of Trump is all in loony California.