Has Trump lost his momentum?

[Sir Mohamed]

Has Donald Drumpf lost his momentum?
I think yes, but still try to figure out for what specific reason. He didn’t suffer major or surprising loss (UT was expected long before polls opened; and OH was also no real surprise, while his FL winning margin was). It won’t be enough for someone else to be the regular nominee, but could take to nomination away from him in an open convention.

[Mr. Morden]

Has Donald Drumpf lost his momentum?
I think yes, but still try to figure out for what specific reason. He didn’t suffer major or surprising loss (UT was expected long before polls opened; and OH was also no real surprise, while his FL winning margin was). It won’t be enough for someone else to be the regular nominee, but could take to nomination away from him in an open convention.

Has he actually had "momentum" since the primaries started?  The only reason his support went up somewhat in the GOP primaries over the past couple of months is because several candidates dropped out and some of their former supporters went to Trump (while many of them also went to Cruz and Kasich).  Otherwise I'm not sure there really has been "momentum".  Trump does better in some states and worse in others, but is that because of positive or negative momentum, or simply because different states have different demographics?

In other words, Trump's support wasn't high enough in the first place to insure a first ballot victory at the RNC, so not sure why people are suddenly surprised that it still isn't.

[Torie]

Trump's potential upside has eroded, and that is what is threatening his prospects. So in that sense he has lost momentum. The never Trump forces have hardened, and expanded some.

[Wisconsin+17]

Trump's national polling is still higher than Romney's at this point in time, FWIW. Romney didn't consolidate until after Santorum dropped.

Trump still has a ton of momentum from his delegate lead and hasn't really fallen behind his expected delegate count.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Trump's national polling is still higher than Romney's at this point in time, FWIW. Romney didn't consolidate until after Santorum dropped.

When there was no one left in the race?

Yes Ron Paul, but the race was over at that point.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump's national polling is still higher than Romney's at this point in time, FWIW. Romney didn't consolidate until after Santorum dropped.

When there was no one left in the race?

Yes Ron Paul, but the race was over at that point.

Gingrich was in as well, but the point still remains.

[swf541]

No, wait til New York to say whether or not

[Wisconsin+17]

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Romney's been substantially weaker than Trump. Romney was at 37.5 nationally, Trump's at 40.2 at identical points of time in the primary.

Santorum's peak was at 34.3, something Cruz has yet to match, although Cruz slowly but surely seems to be getting there.

With 10 states, he only needs one to match Santorum. He'll likely surpass McCain for the most votes by someone who's not been leading after Wisconsin (with over 6 million).

[Badger]

voted no by accident. i think it's clear he has, just as the Establishment has picked Cruz (lol) as THE anti Trump. i think the violence at the Chicago rally and others around that time blunt6ed him.

[Lief 🗽]

Momentum is not a thing that exists in primaries.

[DemPGH]

No, and I think you have to either be very biased or have a very short memory to think so.

What's interesting in all of this is the degree of failure of the NeverTrump thing. They bet on the field against him and that didn't work. Then they dragged people like Romney out from under their rocks and that didn't work. Then they flooded the airwaves with trash and that mostly didn't work. I mean, the coverage has been the most one-sidedly negative that I really think I have ever seen. Now I guess it's pick off enough here and there to keep him under 1237! If that doesn't work, it will be a study in failure.  

[PeteB]

Not yet, but he will lose all remaining momentum after WI.  I am not even sure he will be able to win states like NY, NJ after WI.

As to why, here are 3 main reasons:

1. Laziness and poor work ethic - Trump successfully used the shock factor in the beginning and got a lot of interest and media coverage.  Unfortunately, he didn't realize (or was just too lazy to execute) that for the GE he will need studying, policies, plans and an effective team.

2. Fringe appeal - As we get closer to the GE voters, Trump's appeal is a mile deep and an inch wide - he just can't win over a large chunk of the voters.

3. Risk - GOP is (finally) realizing that having a totally off-the-cuff and unprepared candidate, with very polarizing views, will doom them not only in the POTUS race but in congressional and local races as well.

[Mehmentum]

Trump hasn't lost his momentum because 'momentum' is a nebulous, meaningless concept that has little to no relevance.

[President Johnson]

No, he's still the overwhelming favorite and leading in most polls by a substancial margin. Nobody can get to the 1,237 before the convention except TRUMP. If the GOP dumps TRUMP in Cleveland, a lot of his voters won't head to the polls or vote third party/independent/Democratic.

[dax00]

He's lost his charismatic momentum - getting tired of having to perform day in and day out.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Too early to tell. If he really gets stomped in Wisconsin (more than 10%, I'd say maybe. Otherwise, no.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes,

I think that he has a problem with "women".

Megyn Kelly got a career out of his opinions.

This was one area of his campaign where he needed to show some level of maturity.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Too early to tell. If he really gets stomped in Wisconsin (more than 10%, I'd say maybe. Otherwise, no.

Wisconsin is the first state where there is a focused Establishment opposition to Trump, and it's a state where the GOP is more Establishmentarian.  Trump's hit a rough patch, but some of this is inevitable.

What will be true is that Trump can't be stopped without things getting real ugly.  Ted Cruz is not going to win a first-ballot victory, short of the ugliest sort of arm-twisting, and there will be real questions as to why the leading primary vote-getter is not being nominated.  Yes, the rules don't require this, but Trump is not as out of line with GOP orthodoxy as George Wallace was with the mainstream of 1968's Democrats.

[Xing]

We'll see. A significant loss in Wisconsin is definitely bad for him, but not if it's followed by him getting over 50% in NY. March 5th was awful for him, but it didn't lead to a bad night for him on March 8th.

[Fargobison]

Well looking at his rally in Milwaukee, he certainly doesn't have much momentum there. Place is empty.

[tallguy23]

I think a lot of people are going into "oh sh**t" mood and are turning against him. It might be too late though.

[136or142]

Better question:
Has Trump lost his mind?

[SillyAmerican]

What's interesting in all of this is the degree of failure of the NeverTrump thing. They bet on the field against him and that didn't work. Then they dragged people like Romney out from under their rocks and that didn't work. Then they flooded the airwaves with trash and that mostly didn't work. I mean, the coverage has been the most one-sidedly negative that I really think I have ever seen. Now I guess it's pick off enough here and there to keep him under 1237! If that doesn't work, it will be a study in failure.  

Yeah, sorry, but I'm much too afraid to say that Trump has lost momentum. Mark my words, somebody is bound to start a #NeverTrumpTrump, it's just a matter of time...

[MK]

NO its just the dog days of the campaign/primary season.    people are really getting sick of the media coverge of it at this point.  After he romps Cruz in NY im sure this WI loss will be long forgot.

[tonyreyes89]

Well looking at his rally in Milwaukee, he certainly doesn't have much momentum there. Place is empty.

Lol probably because they didn't allow any Black or brown people in