Mormons and the GOP

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I guess we've all sned/been aghast at that Utah poll by now. Mormons have been a pretty essential part of the GOP tent for a while (even if they share it with evangelicals who despise them - indeed I used to think a worst case scenario for the GOP would be an evangelical candidate who publically calls the LDS Satanic, or something like that), but  they certainly aren't happy about the presumptive nominee (even if I would be ... highly surprised if Democrats came even remotely close in Utah).

Obviously this is probably an aberration based on Trump's ... unique persona; but could the Democrats start to wiggle the GOP stranglehold over the Mormons? Especially if the parties start to coalasce around "nice" and "nasty" labels. (I'm partly asking becasue I don't really know much about Mormons beyond stereotypes)

[P123]

I could see Mormons start trending Democrat if the GOP becomes a Trump like party (which seems likely).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's still unlikely that Trump will actually be the nominee.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

No, it's still unlikely that Trump will actually be the nominee.

Is it now?

[NeverAgain]

No, it's still unlikely that Trump will actually be the nominee.

Was that before or wfter he clinches thr nomination

[Mr. Smith]

If the party goes full trump for good, and not just adapts parts of trump's style, then yes it's possible for an eventual erosion...especially if there were a big family that were to gain clout in contrast to trump. I'd say the Udalls, but they're like the Roosevelts, split down the middle and Harry Reid's damaged goods.

It's a really tall order though.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's highly unlikely that Mormons will become Democrats.  Trump is an aberration for them, but the social values of the Democratic Party are so far away from the values most Mormons hold that it is hard to imagine that a Mormon could be an enthusiastic Democrat.

That being said:  You hardly ever see a Charismatic or Pentecostal run for office as anything but a Republican.  You very rarely see White Fundamentalists and Evangelicals run for anything as other than Democrats.  But the Democratic Party of Utah, small that it is, is made up of Mormons; they are not a "Gentile" party.  They may be more "Jack Mormons" (non-practicing Mormons by upbringing and heritage) in the Democratic Party than in the GOP, but they're still there.  And it was a DEMOCRAT (Morris Udall) that was the first Mormon ever to win delegates at a major party's convention.

The Evangelical/Mormon alliance is one of agreement on cultural issues.  That can't be emphasized enough.  Someone with Trump's lifestyle tests that moreso than most candidates.  If this trend holds, I'm willing to state that Mormons care FAR MORE about the individual lifestyles of Presidential candidates than do Evangelicals, and that is, from my perspective, a sad commentary on the condition of the Body of Christ.

[RINO Tom]

In addition to social issues, the two main Mormon states are relatively affluent (cost of living adjusted) and have seen pretty good success with their states being run under conservative governance.  I doubt the group comes close to being split anytime soon.

[Mr. Smith]

It's highly unlikely that Mormons will become Democrats.  Trump is an aberration for them, but the social values of the Democratic Party are so far away from the values most Mormons hold that it is hard to imagine that a Mormon could be an enthusiastic Democrat.

That being said:  You hardly ever see a Charismatic or Pentecostal run for office as anything but a Republican.  You very rarely see White Fundamentalists and Evangelicals run for anything as other than Democrats.  But the Democratic Party of Utah, small that it is, is made up of Mormons; they are not a "Gentile" party.  They may be more "Jack Mormons" (non-practicing Mormons by upbringing and heritage) in the Democratic Party than in the GOP, but they're still there.  And it was a DEMOCRAT (Morris Udall) that was the first Mormon ever to win delegates at a major party's convention.

The Evangelical/Mormon alliance is one of agreement on cultural issues.  That can't be emphasized enough.  Someone with Trump's lifestyle tests that moreso than most candidates.  If this trend holds, I'm willing to state that Mormons care FAR MORE about the individual lifestyles of Presidential candidates than do Evangelicals, and that is, from my perspective, a sad commentary on the condition of the Body of Christ.

I'm putting this to the Simple Truths, because none of this can be stressed enough.

[Derpist]

It's highly unlikely that Mormons will become Democrats.  Trump is an aberration for them, but the social values of the Democratic Party are so far away from the values most Mormons hold that it is hard to imagine that a Mormon could be an enthusiastic Democrat.

That being said:  You hardly ever see a Charismatic or Pentecostal run for office as anything but a Republican.  You very rarely see White Fundamentalists and Evangelicals run for anything as other than Democrats.  But the Democratic Party of Utah, small that it is, is made up of Mormons; they are not a "Gentile" party.  They may be more "Jack Mormons" (non-practicing Mormons by upbringing and heritage) in the Democratic Party than in the GOP, but they're still there.  And it was a DEMOCRAT (Morris Udall) that was the first Mormon ever to win delegates at a major party's convention.

The Evangelical/Mormon alliance is one of agreement on cultural issues.  That can't be emphasized enough.  Someone with Trump's lifestyle tests that moreso than most candidates.  If this trend holds, I'm willing to state that Mormons care FAR MORE about the individual lifestyles of Presidential candidates than do Evangelicals, and that is, from my perspective, a sad commentary on the condition of the Body of Christ.

I'm putting this to the Simple Truths, because none of this can be stressed enough.

Interestingly, your average Pentecostal/Charismatic SHOULD have been (and probably was) a Democrat back in the day. I don't think there's a good way to exactly elucidate this, but culturally speaking, pentecostals are pretty much the least white major Christian denomination except for maybe seventh-day adventists. The pentecostal movement basically began by a bunch of guys in Los Angeles totally spitting on entrenched racism in America. I think there was a study that found that pentecostals were the most likely church to respond to interested people with clearly non-white names. They also trend working-class. If the Democrats weren't dominated by urban corporate elites who despised people like this, they could still be winning them.

Mormons are extremely cosmopolitan and recruit everywhere in the world and are probably the Americans MOST personally welcoming of immigrants in an actual sense (as opposed to the typical liberal bourgeosie "I love ethnic food but keep those damn mexicans out of my private schools") But the history of the LDS church and race is uh, dicier.

[pbrower2a]

Trump losing Utah will be a one-time disaster.

[Zioneer]

It's highly unlikely that Mormons will become Democrats.  Trump is an aberration for them, but the social values of the Democratic Party are so far away from the values most Mormons hold that it is hard to imagine that a Mormon could be an enthusiastic Democrat.

That being said:  You hardly ever see a Charismatic or Pentecostal run for office as anything but a Republican.  You very rarely see White Fundamentalists and Evangelicals run for anything as other than Democrats.  But the Democratic Party of Utah, small that it is, is made up of Mormons; they are not a "Gentile" party.  They may be more "Jack Mormons" (non-practicing Mormons by upbringing and heritage) in the Democratic Party than in the GOP, but they're still there.  And it was a DEMOCRAT (Morris Udall) that was the first Mormon ever to win delegates at a major party's convention.

The Evangelical/Mormon alliance is one of agreement on cultural issues.  That can't be emphasized enough.  Someone with Trump's lifestyle tests that moreso than most candidates.  If this trend holds, I'm willing to state that Mormons care FAR MORE about the individual lifestyles of Presidential candidates than do Evangelicals, and that is, from my perspective, a sad commentary on the condition of the Body of Christ.

Just as a correction; generally the leadership (elected officials, some party officials) of the Utah Democrats are evenly split between Mormons and non-Mormons; generally the legislators are Mormon (and somewhat devout) while the party officials are 60-40 non-Mormon to Mormon. The last couple of state party chairs have been non-Mormons (current chair Peter Corroon is a Catholic, his predecessor Jim Dabakis was a born Greek Orthodox-turned-Mormon-turned-openly gay).

However, the Utah Democratic base are about 2/3s non-Mormons by my untrained estimation (but I do live here, at least). A small minority of the base are rabidly anti-Mormon and despise the LDS Church, whose members ignore or despise right back. But most are just angry with the LDS Church's influence on Utah politics.

As for the Trump issue, it's an aberration, for now. Time will tell if we have a future messenger of the GOP as obnoxious as Trump. If we do, then a slow decline of GOP support from Mormons will happen, but for now, I would say only about a 5% or less permanent drop would happen among white Mormons. Among Latino and other minority Mormons (who are a rising group within the Church and even Utah), the drop will be more severe.