Contested Convention (rep.)

[PresidentTRUMP]

Who gets the nominee if there is a contested convention in your guys opinion? If Trump doesn't get the delegates he needs, does Cruz or Kasich end up as the nominee, someone who didn't even run for president? Not sure anymore, thought if Rubio won Florida he would have been the nominee after the contested convention, but now if trump doesn't get to the number he needs I really don't know who gets the nomination.

If I had to guess I would say it would either be Cruz or Kasich with the other serving as VP.

Crazy idea for a contested convention on who I think (wont happen) would make the best candidate against hillary. Susanna Martinez with John Kasich Serving as her VP.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Kasich sells his delegates out in return to be VP, it will be the Trumpster. I just can't imagine a Cruz/Kasich ticket. A Trump/Kasich ticket also sounds strange, but a little more likely.

I'm, however, not so sure that the Trumpster would really be denied the nomination if he falls short a few delegates. That would break up the Republican Party, and another (dark horse) nominee like Ryan would, after the Trumpster's supporters are very frustrated, lose to Hillary anyway.

[SillyAmerican]

If Trump is short of the 1237 count, but close (say within 50 votes), he should be the nominee.

If he comes in at around 1100, I'd still hold out hope for Governor Kasich being the nominee, as I believe that he'd do the best against Clinton in the general election.

[PresidentTRUMP]

If Trump is short of the 1237 count, but close (say within 50 votes), he should be the nominee.

If he comes in at around 1100, I'd still hold out hope for Governor Kasich being the nominee, as I believe that he'd do the best against Clinton in the general election.

Agreed 100%.

I don't see how you can give the nomination to someone like Ryan in a contested convention if its someone who hasnt ran even during the cycle. It would have to be someone still running, Trump, Cruz or Kasich.

I would prefer Kasich as well but think Cruz would win a contested convention if him and Trump are neck and neck and Kasich is way behind.

[°Leprechaun]

Trump would have a better chance than Kasich. Trump would also probably have a better chance than Cruz, although who knows? If Trump had a plurality of delegates he would have the best case.

[Maxwell]

Susana Martinez isn't being picked at the convention because she's currently impending investigation in New Mexico and is a drunken mess.

[PeteB]

If Trump is short of the 1237 count, but close (say within 50 votes), he should be the nominee.

If he comes in at around 1100, I'd still hold out hope for Governor Kasich being the nominee, as I believe that he'd do the best against Clinton in the general election.

Agreed 100%.

I don't see how you can give the nomination to someone like Ryan in a contested convention if its someone who hasnt ran even during the cycle. It would have to be someone still running, Trump, Cruz or Kasich.

I would prefer Kasich as well but think Cruz would win a contested convention if him and Trump are neck and neck and Kasich is way behind.

This pretty much nails it.  If Trump is at 1,237 (or very close to it), the GOP is stuck with him.  If not, they will (hopefully) choose the most only electable candidate - Kasich.

[The Other Castro]

The only real option I think Republicans have in a convention, besides Trump of course, is Cruz.

[pho]

Cruz is the only viable alternative at this stage. Giving it to Kasich, who will enter the convention in a very distant third place, would be as bad as giving it to someone who didn't run at all.

[standwrand]

Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan with either Ted Cruz or John Kasich as the VP

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

How can we get Ron Paul to swoop in an steal the nomination?


Side note: I just looked him up and he is 80?!?!? Wow.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think a universally well-regarded governor or ex-governor who didn't run will get the nomination. Think Bill Haslam, Terry Branstad, or Mitch Daniels.

[izixs]

Most the speculation I'm seeing assumes the national party has much influence over the individual delegates. I highly suspect that is not the case and once they are able to become free agents things are very likely to devolve into quite a bit of chaos at the convention.

But if the party elites are to be a deciding factor at all, they are likely going to not only push for a nominee that can deny Trump the nomination but also someone with campaign infrastructure of some sort. You don't want to be starting a presidential election campaign from scratch a few months before election day. The exception to this is if they opt to throw the election instead entirely, which I find hard to believe, even if denying Trump would effectively be just that.

So this effectively brings their choices down to the last three standing. Rubio seems very disinterested in swinging back into things but he could be selected if things go fully bonkers. Despite the obvious bad blood between Trump and Cruz (and Cruz and pretty much any other candidate or elected official), Cruz is still the best situated to grab the nomination in a anyone but Trump situation. He can claim the mandate of the anti-Trump due to being the most successful candidate against Trump as well as will likely have the most robust campaign infrastructure of the three, thus being able to convince electable minded delegates that he's best situated to come out of this bad time with some sort of strength. What more, having been super tea party, anti-establishment guy since forever, he can best subvert the angst of Trump die hards that support Trump out of some hatred for the establishment. And don't forget, the party elites can be ignored by a good fraction of the delegates if they like, and given the state of the race, are fairly likely to be, so they are unlikely to be easily swayed by any grand strategy on their part.

So, if Trump can be denied the nomination, it will be Cruz.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Trump is short of the 1237 count, but close (say within 50 votes), he should be the nominee.

If he comes in at around 1100, I'd still hold out hope for Governor Kasich being the nominee, as I believe that he'd do the best against Clinton in the general election.

Agreed 100%.

I don't see how you can give the nomination to someone like Ryan in a contested convention if its someone who hasnt ran even during the cycle. It would have to be someone still running, Trump, Cruz or Kasich.

When voters choose "none of the above", it doesn't mean that they want to choose from the same candidates, again. (Unless you're the Wisconsin Democratic Party, and we all saw how well that worked.)

The reason for giving the nomination to someone not running is that the voters and delegates have said "none of the above". Sure, if Trump's within 100 delegates or so, and can swing enough uncommitted delegates to his side then he should obviously get the nomination. Denying it to him with parliamentary sleight of hand in that case would be a disaster.

But if he's so short on delegates that even hauling in 100+ uncommitted delegates doesn't get him over the bar? Or if "master dealmaker" Trump can't even convince a handful of unpledged delegates to back him? Then no, there's no magic "only people who ran to the end"  requirement - Trump, Cruz and Kasich will have had their shot and lost. The delegates have every right to pick someone they (and the voters) actually want to support.

[IceSpear]

How can we get Ron Paul to swoop in an steal the nomination?


Side note: I just looked him up and he is 80?!?!? Wow.

Great, you just spawned thousands of "Ron Paul is inevitable" Reddit posts.

[The Other Castro]

We should stop holding out hope for some great compromise savior candidate, or even pretty much anyone besides Trump or Cruz. If Trump doesn't win the nomination on the 1st ballot, he's done. On the 2nd ballot, it's Cruz or bust for Republicans. At this point, the convention's purpose is not to pick the candidate they can most likely win with, but rather the candidate they would most prefer to lose with. At the end of the day, the best candidate to lose with is Cruz.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We should stop holding out hope for some great compromise savior candidate, or even pretty much anyone besides Trump or Cruz. If Trump doesn't win the nomination on the 1st ballot, he's done. On the 2nd ballot, it's Cruz or bust for Republicans. At this point, the convention's purpose is not to pick the candidate they can most likely win with, but rather the candidate they would most prefer to lose with. At the end of the day, the best candidate to lose with is Cruz.

I don't get the narriative that a contested convention makes a party less likely to win.  For instance, I think Trump or Cruz would have the exact same chance if nominated in a contested convention as they would if they won 1237.  The same goes for someone like our R's, Romney, Ryan, or Rubio.

[Erc]

If we believe the reports of Cruz's organizational strength, he may have a whole bunch of fifth column delegates in other candidates' ranks who will join Cruz on the second ballot.

Whether it's enough to push him over 1237 is highly unclear; if it's not, some compromise candidate (Kasich/Romney/Ryan) becomes possible, but honestly a Cruz nomination after a long slog seems more likely unless Trump can strike some weird bargain with the eventual nominee.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Maybe Newt Gingrich may be the compromise candidate to appease both sides

[The Other Castro]

If we believe the reports of Cruz's organizational strength, he may have a whole bunch of fifth column delegates in other candidates' ranks who will join Cruz on the second ballot.

Whether it's enough to push him over 1237 is highly unclear; if it's not, some compromise candidate (Kasich/Romney/Ryan) becomes possible, but honestly a Cruz nomination after a long slog seems more likely unless Trump can strike some weird bargain with the eventual nominee.

Is there any way of figuring out how many 1st ballot Trump delegates would flee after being freed before the 2nd ballot? I'm not sure of how many states release the names of candidate delegate slates, but I'm sure some of them may have some Facebook posts or something that reveal their true preferences.