Does Kasich's victory in OH help Trump?

[Sir Mohamed]

Does Kasich's win in OH actually help the Trumpster? It means that Kasich stays in the race and that the anti-Trump vote remains divided between him and Cruz.

It is still unlikely that the governor wins anymore states. And due to the winner-take-it all method, the Trumpster might very well get to the magic 1,237.

[SillyAmerican]

Well, it certainly doesn't help Cruz. So yes, on thinking about it, perhaps it does help Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

It depends on how the remaining Rubio support out there now ends up getting divided up between the candidates, and if/when Kasich himself drops out.  Kasich kept saying that once he won Ohio, it would shore up his position in the race, and put him in a better position going forward, even though it's not going to actually get him to a delegate majority.

But let's say that doesn't happen.  If Kasich keeps losing every state, is he still going to stay in the race all the way until California?  Maybe he will, but I don't think it's a sure thing.  The best case scenario for Cruz now might be if Kasich stays in the race through the New York primary, drawing enough support to prevent Trump from hitting the 50% WTA threshold there, and then he drops out the next day, presenting a one-on-one Cruz vs. Trump race for the remaining contests (the bulk of which are either WTA statewide or WTA by congressional district).  How likely is that to happen though?  I don't know.

[Beezer]

Sam Wang most certainly seems to think so: http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump%E2%80%99s-chances-win-nomination

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yeah baby.

And Kasich staying in the race helps Trump as well.

[Mr. Morden]

Sam Wang most certainly seems to think so: http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump%E2%80%99s-chances-win-nomination

Ah, but note two key assumptions he makes:

1) Kasich's supporters, were he to drop out, would go more to Cruz than Trump by a 4-1 margin.  Yes, there are certainly polls that show Kasich supporters being sufficiently anti-Trump that they'd go more to Cruz than Trump, but 4-1 sounds like it might be on the high end of what we would expect.

2) Kasich stays in the race all the way to the end of the primaries.  Like I said in my earlier post, this is certainly possible, maybe even likely.  But hardly a sure thing that Kasich will hang on until the bitter end if he keeps losing.  Two and a half months is a long time.

[Sir Mohamed]

If the Trumpster is at 1,237, I think all will drop out.

[Mr. Morden]

If the Trumpster is at 1,237, I think all will drop out.

Right, but the chances of him reaching 1237 *before* California are nearly zero.  (Unless both Cruz and Kasich drop out before then.)

[Sir Mohamed]

If the Trumpster is at 1,237, I think all will drop out.

Right, but the chances of him reaching 1237 *before* California are nearly zero.  (Unless both Cruz and Kasich drop out before then.)

Yes, I just counted the numbers. Even if he wins almost all states before June, it won't be enough.

[PeteB]

No it does not.  And both this race's history and future predictions back that up!

Let's just examine what the analysts thought.  They said that Kasich should drop out before OH to ensure Rubio becomes the sole establishment candidate.  Does anyone here seriously think that, without Kasich, Rubio would have won FL?  Or that, without Kasich in the race, Trump would not have snagged Ohio's 66 delegates and would not be already celebrating his nomination?

Now let's look at a hypothetic two way Cruz-Trump race.  Does anyone here think Cruz could win CT, RI or even be competitive in NY, NJ or even PA or WI against Trump?  Now think of a Kasich-Trump race in those states (since Cruz will be an also ran there)....see what I mean!

[Mr. Morden]

Now let's look at a hypothetic two way Cruz-Trump race.  Does anyone here think Cruz could win CT, RI or even be competitive in NY, NJ or even PA or WI against Trump?  Now think of a Kasich-Trump race in those states (since Cruz will be an also ran there)....see what I mean!

The most recent NBC and ABC polls both tested hypothetical Cruz vs. Trump 2-man race scenarios, and both found Cruz up nationally by double digits.  If those are right, then yes, Cruz would presumably be favored in Wisconsin, and maybe even Pennsylvania.  But I don't know if they are.  Yougov has Trump over 50 even in a 4-man race, so the polls don't all agree with each other.

I'd say it's an open question how many Kasich and Rubio supporters are diehard anti-Trump voters who would vote for Cruz if he was the only alternative to Trump, even if Cruz was only their 10th choice when the primaries started.  If many of them are sufficiently anti-Trump, then Cruz could certainly win in some places where we might naively think that he's a bad "fit".

[PeteB]

Now let's look at a hypothetic two way Cruz-Trump race.  Does anyone here think Cruz could win CT, RI or even be competitive in NY, NJ or even PA or WI against Trump?  Now think of a Kasich-Trump race in those states (since Cruz will be an also ran there)....see what I mean!

The most recent NBC and ABC polls both tested hypothetical Cruz vs. Trump 2-man race scenarios, and both found Cruz up nationally by double digits.  If those are right, then yes, Cruz would presumably be favored in Wisconsin, and maybe even Pennsylvania.  But I don't know if they are.  Yougov has Trump over 50 even in a 4-man race, so the polls don't all agree with each other.

I'd say it's an open question how many Kasich and Rubio supporters are diehard anti-Trump voters who would vote for Cruz if he was the only alternative to Trump, even if Cruz was only their 10th choice when the primaries started.  If many of them are sufficiently anti-Trump, then Cruz could certainly win in some places where we might naively think that he's a bad "fit".

If it was a 2 way race between Trump and Cruz, yes Cruz would get some NoTrump support (but would still lose the NorthEast).  But frankly, if you want to look at it that way, if this was a 2 way Trump-Kasich race, I would stake a bet that Kasich could get to 1,237 delegates, against Trump, before the convention.

The fact remains this is not a 2 way race and, in those circumstances, losing Kasich would just cement Trump as the nominee within one month.

[Ljube]

No.

[Ljube]

I'm leaning no, because Kasich could keep Trump from the backdoor WTA trigger in northeastern states and CDs where he would have hit it in a 1-on-1 with Cruz.  It really comes down to whether you believe Cruz can win Northeast and West Coast states in a 1-on-1.  If yes, Kasich helps Trump. If no, he hurts Trump.

Yes. What TRUMP absolutely needs is to win 50% plus in New York to trigger WTA. Without Kasich, it would be granted.

[Maxwell]

Without Kasich, Trump gets to slaughter Cruz in Pennsylvania, New York, and plenty of other northern states still in.