Trump's disapproval ratings... 89% for Hispanics, 94% for African-Americans

[Blue3]

Trump's disapproval ratings...
89% for Hispanics
94% for African-Americans

He's also losing English-Americans (who primarily are still only a majority or plurality in Utah and New England now).



How does one win, with these numbers?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump's disapproval ratings...
89% for Hispanics
94% for African-Americans

He's also losing English-Americans (who primarily are still only a majority or plurality in Utah and New England now).



How does one win, with these numbers?

White men who begin every statement about Trump with "Well, actually..."

[Curbstomp]

And which polling company lists English-Americans in their demographic breakdowns?

[Wells]

Junk poll!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

And which polling company lists English-Americans in their demographic breakdowns?

[Hydera]

b-but Donald has huge tremendous black and latino friends who are the greatest and love him!!

[indietraveler]

but Donald loves tacos.

[Blue3]

And which polling company lists English-Americans in their demographic breakdowns?

The point is I wanted to pre-empt the "that's only the minorities, he'll win whites big!" argument.

[RR1997]

Favorability does not equal voting intentions.

There are plenty of people who hold unfavorable views of a candidate but will still vote for them.

Donald Trump is constantly polling at Mitt Romney levels with Hispanics. You guys have to remember that Romney almost hit a floor with Hispanics in 2012. Romney held a very far-right position on immigration, while McCain/Bush held relatively moderate stances of immigration. Hispanics abandoned the GOP at record levels. Bush and McCain got 44% and 35% of the Hispanic vote, while Romney only got 27%. There are around 20% of Hispanics who'll vote Republican no matter what. These Hispanics usually live in heavily Republican areas, are very assimilated, and/or are angry at illegal immigrants for taking the "easy route."

Let me say this again, Donald Trump is consistently polling at or moderately below Mitt Romney levels with Hispanics. A few polls have even shown Donald Trump doing slightly better than Mitt Romney with Hispanics (like that Univision poll for example).

Don't get me wrong, Donald Trump will obviously do worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics, but he won't do significantly worse.

I predict that Trump will get 22% of the Hispanic vote (compared to Romney's 27%). Romney hit a floor with Hispanics. I despise Trump, but you're delusional if you think that Trump will get 11% of Hispanics. 17% is his absolute floor. It's almost impossible for Trump to do significantly worse with Hispanics than Romney. Romney almost hit a floor (like polls have shown).

I predict that Hillary will win in a blowout, but not because of Hispanics. She'll only slightly improve with Hispanics. I think Hillary's biggest gains will come from white women, not Hispanics. Romney did very well with white women. White women absolutely despise Donald Trump. Trump constantly polls significantly worse than Romney with white women. Some polls have even shown Hillary outright defeating Trump with white women. I think Hillary will win a blowout due to white women, not Hispanics. It will be hard for Donald Trump do to significantly worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics.

[RaphaelDLG]

He will do tremendously with "the blacks;" he will WIN with women - that, I can tell you, OK?

[Indy Texas]

The Republican Party is now the Donald Trump Party. He will do to Hispanics what Goldwater did to blacks - make them into an 85-90% Democratic bloc.

[RR1997]

The Republican Party is now the Donald Trump Party. He will do to Hispanics what Goldwater did to blacks - make them into an 85-90% Democratic bloc.

lol no

At the absolute worst Trump will make Hispanics a 70%-80% Democratic bloc. Donald Trump isn't getting less than 16% of Hispanics (read my post above).

[Xing]

The only way I can see Trump winning is if a lot of people just don't bother voting, which, unfortunately, is quite possible.

[ag]

The Republican Party is now the Donald Trump Party. He will do to Hispanics what Goldwater did to blacks - make them into an 85-90% Democratic bloc.

lol no

At the absolute worst Trump will make Hispanics a 70%-80% Democratic bloc. Donald Trump isn't getting less than 16% of Hispanics (read my post above).

You seem to take your floor down a bit with each post. 27%, 22%, 20%, 17%, no less than 16%.... Well, I will grant that much to you. Trump, probably, can get 16% of the Hispanic vote: some Cubans, some very assimillated types, etc. Can he get to 20%? Perhaps, not impossible. Still, you should, probably, hope, this is not going to be considered a very good performance among the Hispanics by a Republican by 2032. Blacks did not get into single digits overnight either.

[ProudModerate2]

These numbers are really, really bad for trump.
The big question is, as many fear, will Republicans continue to lose Hispanics in large numbers, in future elections ?
This could ripple-down to effect Senate and House seats this year, and in 2018. A Dem controlled Senate this year is possible.

[Virginiá]

These numbers are really, really bad for trump.
The big question is, as many fear, will Republicans continue to lose Hispanics in large numbers, in future elections ?
This could ripple-down to effect Senate and House seats this year, and in 2018. A Dem controlled Senate this year is possible.

After what has gone down, it seems unlikely that they wouldn't suffer in the future due to Trump. I have seen a couple polls showing almost half the people polled having a lower opinion of the GOP / being less likely to vote Republican due to Trump. Not sure how hard that will stick past this cycle, though.

If California 1994 gives us any idea, it would show that the GOP will likely lose even more support from Hispanic voters for a generation or more. This isn't any election - This election is marked by the GOP presumptive nominee basing his campaign on scapegoating ethnic groups for America's problems and going one racist tirade after another. Really, it's unprecedented in the modern era. There is just no way this doesn't cause lasting damage.

[windjammer]

Favorability does not equal voting intentions.

There are plenty of people who hold unfavorable views of a candidate but will still vote for them.

Donald Trump is constantly polling at Mitt Romney levels with Hispanics. You guys have to remember that Romney almost hit a floor with Hispanics in 2012. Romney held a very far-right position on immigration, while McCain/Bush held relatively moderate stances of immigration. Hispanics abandoned the GOP at record levels. Bush and McCain got 44% and 35% of the Hispanic vote, while Romney only got 27%. There are around 20% of Hispanics who'll vote Republican no matter what. These Hispanics usually live in heavily Republican areas, are very assimilated, and/or are angry at illegal immigrants for taking the "easy route."

Let me say this again, Donald Trump is consistently polling at or moderately below Mitt Romney levels with Hispanics. A few polls have even shown Donald Trump doing slightly better than Mitt Romney with Hispanics (like that Univision poll for example).

Don't get me wrong, Donald Trump will obviously do worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics, but he won't do significantly worse.

I predict that Trump will get 22% of the Hispanic vote (compared to Romney's 27%). Romney hit a floor with Hispanics. I despise Trump, but you're delusional if you think that Trump will get 11% of Hispanics. 17% is his absolute floor. It's almost impossible for Trump to do significantly worse with Hispanics than Romney. Romney almost hit a floor (like polls have shown).

I predict that Hillary will win in a blowout, but not because of Hispanics. She'll only slightly improve with Hispanics. I think Hillary's biggest gains will come from white women, not Hispanics. Romney did very well with white women. White women absolutely despise Donald Trump. Trump constantly polls significantly worse than Romney with white women. Some polls have even shown Hillary outright defeating Trump with white women. I think Hillary will win a blowout due to white women, not Hispanics. It will be hard for Donald Trump do to significantly worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics.

She's obviously not going to win 90% of the hispanics but Trump is going to increase turnout among this group.

[Redban]

If disapproval ratings correlated with actual votes, then Ben Carson would have taken the GOP primary by a fair margin while Trump and Cruz would have finished in the bottom 2, not the top 2.

[Sir Mohamed]

I thought he would do so well with African Americans. Folks, the Trumpster is TOAST.

[Hydera]

If disapproval ratings correlated with actual votes, then Ben Carson would have taken the GOP primary by a fair margin while Trump and Cruz would have finished in the bottom 2, not the top 2.

Do you really think Trump will do better with Blacks and Hispanics than polls suggested considered his ratings are lower than what romney even got in 2012?

Also why do you assume the election will play out like the GOP primary? Trump was backed by a niche vote group that always existed in the GOP which was white nationalists which allowed him to win with a plurality of republicans while the other candidates representing other GOP blocs were splintered.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Favorability does not equal voting intentions.

There are plenty of people who hold unfavorable views of a candidate but will still vote for them.

Donald Trump is constantly polling at Mitt Romney levels with Hispanics. You guys have to remember that Romney almost hit a floor with Hispanics in 2012. Romney held a very far-right position on immigration, while McCain/Bush held relatively moderate stances of immigration. Hispanics abandoned the GOP at record levels. Bush and McCain got 44% and 35% of the Hispanic vote, while Romney only got 27%. There are around 20% of Hispanics who'll vote Republican no matter what. These Hispanics usually live in heavily Republican areas, are very assimilated, and/or are angry at illegal immigrants for taking the "easy route."

Let me say this again, Donald Trump is consistently polling at or moderately below Mitt Romney levels with Hispanics. A few polls have even shown Donald Trump doing slightly better than Mitt Romney with Hispanics (like that Univision poll for example).

Don't get me wrong, Donald Trump will obviously do worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics, but he won't do significantly worse.

I predict that Trump will get 22% of the Hispanic vote (compared to Romney's 27%). Romney hit a floor with Hispanics. I despise Trump, but you're delusional if you think that Trump will get 11% of Hispanics. 17% is his absolute floor. It's almost impossible for Trump to do significantly worse with Hispanics than Romney. Romney almost hit a floor (like polls have shown).

I predict that Hillary will win in a blowout, but not because of Hispanics. She'll only slightly improve with Hispanics. I think Hillary's biggest gains will come from white women, not Hispanics. Romney did very well with white women. White women absolutely despise Donald Trump. Trump constantly polls significantly worse than Romney with white women. Some polls have even shown Hillary outright defeating Trump with white women. I think Hillary will win a blowout due to white women, not Hispanics. It will be hard for Donald Trump do to significantly worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics.

Except nobody suggested that favorability ratings correspond with votes at a 1:1 ratio. It should be said, however, that most of the polls that show similar ratings to Romney are taken from national polls where the Hispanic sample size tends to be extremely small, which tends to distort the result. Most of the polls that show far greater animosity within the Hispanic community are more focused surveys that incorporate larger sample sizes, although I'm not sure if they only count those whom are registered voters in the results or any Hispanic regardless of voter registration status. Either way, both types of polls have their potential flaws, but he is certainly doing worse among Hispanics no matter how you cut it.

Furthermore, you are making the mistake of assuming that Hillary Clinton's gains are linearly correlated with Donald Trump's losses among already registered Hispanics, not taking into account that there has been increased Latino registration this election season, invariably as opposition to Trump. Therefore, you could be looking at a larger groundswell towards the Democrats in the Latino community than you are predicting. Keep in mind that the Democrats only won 56% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, I can easily see that breaking over two-thirds this election even if Trump does win something like 20%.

Also, let's refocus your demographic slicing of the white vote; it's going to be college educated white voters as a whole that sink the Trumptanic. College educated white women disproportionately so, but Trump also polls significantly worse among college educated white men than with their lesser educated brethren.