Republicans are screwed with young voters

[ElectionsGuy]

Yep, no matter who the Republican nominee is, I think that younger voters will overwhelmingly vote Democratic no matter what. I’m going to highlight aspects of each candidate’s characteristics that turn off younger voters, besides just typical Republican orthodoxy and talking points.

Trump: ‘Make America Great Again’ is a nostalgic campaign slogan that primarily resonates with middle-aged whites who are not in the best of financial and health situations. Young people will not be as impressed with it. In addition, Trump is using two powerful sentiments: nationalism and authoritarianism (yes, disagree with me on the latter, it’s proven). Young people are the least nationalistic and the least authoritarian of all age groups (and also the least bigoted). It’s pretty well known that Trump attracts the most bigoted people into his camp (there’s A LOT of intelligent Trump supporters, but this is just a fact). Even though Young people probably won’t turn out as great since Clinton will be the nominee, Trump is definitely worse, he’ll get blown out by young voters.

Cruz: His whole strategy of wrapping himself in the religious right is going to bite him in the ass. Young voters are the least religious, 1/3 identifying as non-religious. He is hardline on social issues almost all millennials are in agreement with. He is also playing victimization with Christians, saying they are ‘under assault’ (in a 75% Christian country, lol). A large percentage are going to be like ‘huh?’. It’s so out of touch and he’ll get trounced too.

Rubio: He’ll probably do the best out of the three, but his foreign policy is death to millennials, who grew up during the Iraq War. He has steadfastly defended George W Bush’s foreign policy, is by far the most hawkish candidate, and would continue the surveillance state, the continuous increases in ground troops, more bombing, more ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ stuff in the middle east. It’s not remotely in line with how millennials feel at all, so he’ll lose by a lot as well. Having the slogan ‘A New American Century’ is not good enough.

What do you think? Disagree?

[SingingAnalyst]

Partially disgree. If Sanders wins the nomination he mops up the GOP among young voters, while losing nationally. In the real world (Clinton v. Trump) Clinton gets just 54%. You are right about Cruz not resonating with young voters, though. Maybe in 1988 but not today.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I'm pretty sure Sanders would endorse Clinton and he would tell his supporters to back her. About 90% of them should.

[SingingAnalyst]

I'm pretty sure Sanders would endorse Clinton and he would tell his supporters to back her. About 90% of them should.

#IAmThe10Percent

[Suburbia]

Young people don't have a sense of nationalism because they just don't love their country. It's simple as that.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Young people don't have a sense of nationalism because they just don't love their country. It's simple as that.

You're 100% right. I remember going into high school shell shocked when no one said the Pledge of Allegiance. Absolutely disgusting how these people behave.

[Virginiá]

Partially disgree. If Sanders wins the nomination he mops up the GOP among young voters, while losing nationally. In the real world (Clinton v. Trump) Clinton gets just 54%. You are right about Cruz not resonating with young voters, though. Maybe in 1988 but not today.

I'm not sure what recent polls say, but some from a number of weeks ago showed Hillary pulling in anywhere from 62% - 65% in a matchup vs Trump. Sanders pulled in as high as 70%+. I think Hillary's issue is that young people would probably have 2004 or 2012-level turnout in that kind of general election.

Point being, though, is that Millennials/young people really do not want Trump as president.

[Classic Conservative]

Most young people don't have a sense of nationalism because they just don't love their country. It's simple as that.

[bagelman]

Young people don't have a sense of nationalism because they just don't love their country. It's simple as that.

You're 100% right. I remember going into high school shell shocked when no one said the Pledge of Allegiance. Absolutely disgusting how these people behave.

I protested the pledge often while in HS and yet I love my country.

[tallguy23]

Yeah Hillary wins the youth vote against Trump. That's a given.

In terms of the Pledge of Allegiance, that doesn't define a patriot. This is America. Say the pledge if you want or don't. Isn't that what freedom is about?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Young people don't have a sense of nationalism because they just don't love their country. It's simple as that.

You're 100% right. I remember going into high school shell shocked when no one said the Pledge of Allegiance. Absolutely disgusting how these people behave.

I protested the pledge often while in HS and yet I love my country.

I would be pretty damn concerned if any significant group of people in the United States had a sense of nationalism, of all things

[Asian Nazi]

Yeah Hillary wins the youth vote against Trump. That's a given.

In terms of the Pledge of Allegiance, that doesn't define a patriot. This is America. Say the pledge if you want or don't. Isn't that what freedom is about?

One of the things I'm looking forward to about the TRUMP era is the ending of the myth that selfishness = freedom.

[Old Man Willow]

Ann Coulter said the biggest swing from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012 was with young black men. Who knows what's going to happen.

[bagelman]

Ann Coulter said the biggest swing from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012 was with young black men. Who knows what's going to happen.

Ann Coulter said the biggest swing from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012 was with young black men. Who knows what's going to happen.

1. You posted the same thing twice

2. I don't trust her; do you have actual stats that proves this?

[Old Man Willow]

Ann Coulter said the biggest swing from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012 was with young black men. Who knows what's going to happen.

Ann Coulter said the biggest swing from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012 was with young black men. Who knows what's going to happen.

1. You posted the same thing twice

2. I don't trust her; do you have actual stats that proves this?

Obviously I wasn't aware I posted it twice. I thought it didn't go through the first time.

And no, it's something she said on Real Time with Bill Maher.

[Inmate Trump]

Young people don't have a sense of nationalism because they just don't love their country. It's simple as that.

You're 100% right. I remember going into high school shell shocked when no one said the Pledge of Allegiance. Absolutely disgusting how these people behave.

Nationalism.

Heil Trump! Mein Führer!

[tallguy23]

Yeah Hillary wins the youth vote against Trump. That's a given.

In terms of the Pledge of Allegiance, that doesn't define a patriot. This is America. Say the pledge if you want or don't. Isn't that what freedom is about?

One of the things I'm looking forward to about the TRUMP era is the ending of the myth that selfishness = freedom.

Wow.

[Virginiá]

1. You posted the same thing twice

2. I don't trust her; do you have actual stats that proves this?

I know you weren't asking me, but I had these docs already bookmarked. I can't provide exact statistics for 2008's youth vote by race AND gender (for some reason civicyouth didn't think to compile those statistics in 2008 for race and gender together, but they did them separately). Here is 2012's detailed statistics, which has a tidbit on the 2008-2012 AA male drop:

http://www.civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/CIRCLE_2012Election_GenderRace_ForWeb1.pdf

From the document:

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That seems in line with the overall lower male support for Democrats across all races. What is truly amazing is the almost unanimous support for Obama from young black women. Anyway, here are some additional materials on the 2008 youth vote:

http://civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/fs_gender_09_final1.pdf
http://civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/fs_race_09_final1.pdf

[Adam Griffin]

I recall reading some study that said if you vote for the same party three times in a row as a part of your first three votes cast, then you have a 80-90% chance of remaining in that party/ideology for the rest of your life.

Those between the ages of 30-39 are guaranteed to be a permanent 55% Democratic generation at minimum. This was the baseline vote for Kerry and they posted comparable numbers for Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

The group that is swelling the Millennials' share of the vote and that are coming "online" most rapidly in terms of beginning to vote are those between the ages of 24-29, who are more than 60% Democratic at this point and are the most partisan generation alive (even though they hate labels. This election, however - if there was a swing toward the Republicans - could prevent that from being completely baked in with their third election. It might help put it more in line with those in their thirties. More specifically, those right around my age (26-28) are the most hardcore Democratic voters within that particular group (thanks, W).

Those under the age of 24 probably aren't quite as polarized or Democratic due to the fact that many are too young to remember who caused the economic collapse, who invaded Iraq, and so forth, but they're still a majority Democratic voting bloc on balance and barring some major attitude shift by Republicans, will likely be baked in that way as well.

[Virginiá]

I recall reading some study that said if you vote for the same party three times in a row as a part of your first three votes cast, then you have a 80-90% chance of remaining in that party/ideology for the rest of your life.

Those between the ages of 30-39 are guaranteed to be a permanent 55% Democratic generation at minimum. This was the baseline vote for Kerry and they posted comparable numbers for Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

The group that is swelling the Millennials' share of the vote and that are coming "online" most rapidly in terms of beginning to vote are those between the ages of 24-29, who are more than 60% Democratic at this point and are the most partisan generation alive (even though they hate labels. This election, however - if there was a swing toward the Republicans - could prevent that from being completely baked in with their third election. It might help put it more in line with those in their thirties. More specifically, those right around my age (26-28) are the most hardcore Democratic voters within that particular group (thanks, W).

Those under the age of 24 probably aren't quite as polarized or Democratic due to the fact that many are too young to remember who caused the economic collapse, who invaded Iraq, and so forth, but they're still a majority Democratic voting bloc on balance and barring some major attitude shift by Republicans, will likely be baked in that way as well.

Dang Griffin, I love how you bring this stuff up . Yes, there is some strong evidence that party support sticks for life after a certain point. However, it's not necessarily 3 elections - It's just that in young adulthood (20 - 29), a person's chance of changing parties rapidly declines, at which point after age 30 or so they are highly unlikely to switch allegiances unless some sort of big event occurs, like the Great Depression, or some Reagan-esque figure comes along and sweeps them off their feet.

Studies of how certain age groups vote a very certain way depending on who was president when they came of age. For instance, Eisenhower kids (silent generation) vote more Republican, while Nixon kids vote more Democrat (for obvious reasons). Reagan kids vote strongly Republican, while basically all kids from Bill Clinton - Obama vote strongly Democrat. Since the Millennial generation is the largest generation in a long, long time, that probably means the Republican era of dominance is going to come to an end sometime within the next decade. Their only hope is to realign their party platform to fit the views of the newest generations, or to figure out a way to lure those kids into their current vision. Either way, as it stands now, they are screwed. Young people since Bill Clinton have voted more Democratic as a whole and will likely remain Democrats for life.



(the reason there are so few bars from Clinton-now is because there have not been enough elections to measure, but the data we do have is still pretty conclusive. The Millennial generation is far more Democratic than the Boomer/GenX's are Republican. Also consider that the silent generation is rapidly disappearing, so the electorate is shifting majority Democratic for the first time in so, so long)



Take a look at these links. It's very interesting stuff on generational voting patterns and views:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/09/the-politics-of-american-generations-how-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/

http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-1-how-generations-have-changed/

[Young Conservative]

Disagree. (also your logic on christians is flawed, just because the majority is a certain demographic doesn't exclude them from oppression ex. south carolina before civil war, uganda before genocide, etc)

[Asian Nazi]

Disagree. (also your logic on christians is flawed, just because the majority is a certain demographic doesn't exclude them from oppression ex. south carolina before civil war, uganda before genocide, etc)

Yes, modern Christian Americans are exactly like black slaves before the Civil War.

[Young Conservative]

Disagree. (also your logic on christians is flawed, just because the majority is a certain demographic doesn't exclude them from oppression examples are present throughout history

Yes, modern Christian Americans are exactly like black slaves before the Civil War.

I was pointing out his flawed logic, not stating an opinion. Think before you type snide remarks

[Asian Nazi]

Disagree. (also your logic on christians is flawed, just because the majority is a certain demographic doesn't exclude them from oppression examples are present throughout history

Yes, modern Christian Americans are exactly like black slaves before the Civil War.

I was pointing out his flawed logic, not stating an opinion. Think before you type snide remarks

So you're one of those a-holes who just pops in and points out what you perceive as logical fallacies constantly?

[Reaganfan]

As I said a couple of months ago...

The biggest difference between myself and other "youth voters" (even though I'm 27 and no longer fit in the 18-25 voter group) is a mean-spirited conspiratorial cynicism that I don't have.

Let me give an example. We have an enemy, and they have to be defeated. America will prevail God Bless America, we're great they suck, end of story. I hold that Roosevelt/Ike/JFK/Nixon/Reagan/Clinton/Bush sort of viewpoint.

Younger people tend to often have a more cynical view of our own country. Kinda this "blame ourselves" attitude that I don't have. I mean for Christ's sake, I meet young people who think Bill Clinton and George Bush blew up the World Trade Center with missiles. I meet young people who think Sandy Hook never happened. How screwed in the head are these people? How disrespectful to our leaders and our country and the victims on planes and the parents of slain children? It disgusts me. It scares me...and I can't figure out why they think this way....or why they would want to.