What Sanders needs to win

[Ljube]

OK. Let me start with the following statement: I don't trust the CPP faux polls. Instead, I believe the Fox news national poll showing Sanders leading.

If Fox is right, then Sanders has to have some votes outside of the Northeast.

We know that Hillary can rig caucuses. It's nothing like 2008, because Obama had support of at least a part of the Dem Establishment, while Sanders has no support from that cabal.

So, let's say Sanders loses South Carolina.

Come Super Tuesday, which are the states he needs to win to prove that the race is 47 - 44 for him?

I think CO, MA, OK, VA and VT. If he wins MN, GA, and/or TX, its game over Hillary.

[President Johnson]

Hillary getting idicted or a major problem with her health. But neither is supposed to happen.

[Ljube]

Hillary getting idicted or a major problem with her health. But neither is supposed to happen.

What if Fox news poll is right?

[President Johnson]

Hillary getting idicted or a major problem with her health. But neither is supposed to happen.

What if Fox news poll is right?

National polls are meaningless. Or almost meaningless. One poll showing Bernie barely ahead doesn't make a big difference. He'll win VT and maybe CO and MA. But that's it. And even if he outperforms the polls a little, it's still very difficult to overcome her advantage with the superdelegates.

[Ljube]

Hillary getting idicted or a major problem with her health. But neither is supposed to happen.

What if Fox news poll is right?

National polls are meaningless. Or almost meaningless. One poll showing Bernie barely ahead doesn't make a big difference. He'll win VT and maybe CO and MA. But that's it. And even if he outperforms the polls a little, it's still very difficult to overcome her advantage with the superdelegates.

Superdelegates are not committed. If Sanders wins more regular delegates, the supers will just change sides.

[President Johnson]

Hillary getting idicted or a major problem with her health. But neither is supposed to happen.

What if Fox news poll is right?

National polls are meaningless. Or almost meaningless. One poll showing Bernie barely ahead doesn't make a big difference. He'll win VT and maybe CO and MA. But that's it. And even if he outperforms the polls a little, it's still very difficult to overcome her advantage with the superdelegates.

Superdelegates are not committed. If Sanders wins more regular delegates, the supers will just change sides.

I doubt it. Maybe small number of them. They're establishment and the overwhelming majority of them will support her.

[Ljube]

Hillary getting idicted or a major problem with her health. But neither is supposed to happen.

What if Fox news poll is right?

National polls are meaningless. Or almost meaningless. One poll showing Bernie barely ahead doesn't make a big difference. He'll win VT and maybe CO and MA. But that's it. And even if he outperforms the polls a little, it's still very difficult to overcome her advantage with the superdelegates.

Superdelegates are not committed. If Sanders wins more regular delegates, the supers will just change sides.

I doubt it. Maybe small number of them. They're establishment and the overwhelming majority of them will support her.

No way they would deny a regular Sanders victory by siding with Hillary. The superdelegates are the Party Establishment and they will not risk a party rift like that.

[Ljube]

What also needs to be considered here is who wins the Dem states here. Hillary will win most, if not all of the sure Pub states. Sanders will win most Dem and swing states.

[politicallpd]

A miracle.

[RaphaelDLG]

He won't win VA; too many black people.  He needs VT, MN, MA, CO, OK to stay in the race.  Read 538 path to the nomination article.  It'll be tough for him.

[DINGO Joe]

Martin Luther King comes back from the dead and endorses Bernie

[Bigby]

Martin Luther King comes back from the dead and endorses Bernie

After Nevada, that may not be enough to win the black vote.

[DS0816]

I think he has won in a very different and perhaps more important way.

The future is not 65+.

The 18 to 29 voting-age group in the first three caucus/primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, carried for Bernie Sanders (over Hillary Clinton) with 4-to-1 levels of support.

The 30 to 44 voting-age group have given him landslide, double-digit margins.

They are essentially telling the Democratic Party they want more ambitious, and not incremental, changes from leadership and policies. (In other words: They like Franklin Roosevelt and not so much Bill Clinton.)

They're more than likely to get that the next time the White House flips from Republican to Democratic.

What is going to help is to see the Old Guard die off through retirements and/or deaths.

[DINGO Joe]

Oh, has there ever been a time when the youngs didn't want change faster than the olds?

[Asian Nazi]

Oh, has there ever been a time when the youngs didn't want change faster than the olds?

That really depends on how you define "change", but there have been plenty of times in American history where older voters voted to the left of younger ones.