Is this a likely results for NH?

[Vern]

Trump: 19
Rubio: 15
Cruz: 19
Kasich: 15
Bush: 14
Christie: 14
Fiorina: 2
Carson: 2
Gilmore: 0

They have said all day that Trump has no ground game and it will hurt him. The Governors do well, and Cruz gets a lot of the 2012 Paul voters...

[PresidentTRUMP]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

He severely underperformed his numbers in Iowa, I would expect him to do the same in NH

[pho]

Cruz getting 19% seems really far fetched, New Hampshire is the worst kind of state for smooth talking televangelist types like Ted Cruz. He's mentally checked out to South Carolina for a reason.

[Vern]

Cruz getting 19% seems really far fetched, New Hampshire is the worst kind of state for smooth talking televangelist types like Ted Cruz. He's mentally checked out to South Carolina for a reason.

You can move the number totals around however one sees fit, my point is no-one hits 20% due to most candidates getting double dights.

[pho]

Cruz getting 19% seems really far fetched, New Hampshire is the worst kind of state for smooth talking televangelist types like Ted Cruz. He's mentally checked out to South Carolina for a reason.

You can move the number totals around however one sees fit, my point is no-one hits 20% due to most candidates getting double dights.

Still doubtful. Christie, Cruz, and Rubio (guessing here) are going to perform poorly and there will be plenty of the vote to go around to push someone over 20%.

[sportydude]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

He severely underperformed his numbers in Iowa, I would expect him to do the same in NH

Actually, Trump didn't underperform in Iowa, Cruz rather outperformed.

[Figueira]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

He severely underperformed his numbers in Iowa, I would expect him to do the same in NH

He didn't underperform by that much though. His final RCP average in Iowa was lower than his current one in New Hampshire, so why should he do much worse in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa?

Anyway, it's within the realm of possibility, but it's hard to believe that Trump would do that badly.

[Vern]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

He severely underperformed his numbers in Iowa, I would expect him to do the same in NH

He didn't underperform by that much though. His final RCP average in Iowa was lower than his current one in New Hampshire, so why should he do much worse in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa?

Anyway, it's within the realm of possibility, but it's hard to believe that Trump would do that badly.

From what they are saying a lot of Independents are undecided between Trump and Sanders. If for some reason a lot of them end up voting for Sanders instead of Trump then Trump's numbers could see a big drop..

[Erc]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

He severely underperformed his numbers in Iowa, I would expect him to do the same in NH

He didn't underperform by that much though. His final RCP average in Iowa was lower than his current one in New Hampshire, so why should he do much worse in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa?

Anyway, it's within the realm of possibility, but it's hard to believe that Trump would do that badly.

From what they are saying a lot of Independents are undecided between Trump and Sanders. If for some reason a lot of them end up voting for Sanders instead of Trump then Trump's numbers could see a big drop..

Even if this is true it seems like Sanders has the state under lockdown, so people are more likely to vote in the contested Republican primary.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No, I don't believe so, because Trump % is way to low IMO. I think he will be around 28%. If he finished under 20% than when the field shrinks he is toast but I don't believe that will happen tonight.

He severely underperformed his numbers in Iowa, I would expect him to do the same in NH

He didn't underperform by that much though. His final RCP average in Iowa was lower than his current one in New Hampshire, so why should he do much worse in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa?

Anyway, it's within the realm of possibility, but it's hard to believe that Trump would do that badly.

From what they are saying a lot of Independents are undecided between Trump and Sanders. If for some reason a lot of them end up voting for Sanders instead of Trump then Trump's numbers could see a big drop..

Well, from interviews I've seen they were torn between Kasich and Sanders

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump: 19
Rubio: 15
Cruz: 19
Kasich: 15
Bush: 14
Christie: 14
Fiorina: 2
Carson: 2
Gilmore: 0

They have said all day that Trump has no ground game and it will hurt him. The Governors do well, and Cruz gets a lot of the 2012 Paul voters...

Possible? Yes. Likely? No, in my opinion. Trump will not do quite that poorly, nor, I suspect, will Cruz, Rubio, and Christie do that well.

[President Johnson]

TRUMP won't be below 20% or even 25%. The worst result I see for him is 27%. It's quite possible that he cracks 30%.

[Maxwell]

Trump's appeal is more obvious in New Hampshire than it is in Iowa, he will perform at least 3% better than he did in Iowa. That's why I predict Trump gets 27% even as polls show him in the mid 30s.

[President Johnson]

Trump's appeal is more obvious in New Hampshire than it is in Iowa, he will perform at least 3% better than he did in Iowa. That's why I predict Trump gets 27% even as polls show him in the mid 30s.

Yep, mid 30s seems to be unrealistic, but 31% are absolutely possible.