A Brokered Convention For The DEMOCRATS?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Are the Democrats in denial?  Hillary is sagging, with rumors of her being soon to be indicted in the media every day, while a 77 year old "democratic socialist" (Sanders) who, though a member of the Democratic caucus, has never run for office as a Democrat until now, is poised to surge and overtake Hillary.  This is a recipe for a potential McGovern-like defeat, even in today's political environment.  If a GOP nominee won the Presidential election with 400 EV or more, it would turn our nation into a one-party country.  It would potentially deal the Democratic party a blow that would take over a decade for them to fully recover from.

The Democrats are in dire need of a candidate that is NOT Hillary and NOT Bernie.  These candidates cannot win.  As much as I like Sanders personally, I don't believe that America will elect an open "democratic socialist".  I loathe Hillary, and I truly believe that this e-mail scandal will prove to be the gift that keeps on giving for the GOP, possibly in the form of an indictment.  What will it say about the Democratic Party as a whole if, after having gone into the tank for Hillary, becomes responsible for allowing someone under indictment to be nominated for President?

Is it too late for a viable candidate to enter the race as "Hillary Insurance", or "Stop Sanders"?  Martin O'Malley has no appeal whatsoever, but there are a number of Democrats who do have appeal to the Democratic grassroots and who would be viable nominees.  The obvious choice would be Joe Biden, and he could plausibly be drawn into the race on the basis of circumstances having significantly changed.  Another alternative would be Al Gore, who, arguably, was robbed of the Presidency, and who would clearly have the gravitas to be the guy to come to the rescue.

Are there others?  I would think so, but a large number of them have low profiles to date.  Sen. Amy Kloubachar (D-MN) is an example; she's competent and qualified, but an insider in an outsider's year.  The same could be said about Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA).  Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is a possible pick, and is personally wealthy, but he's not a favorite of the "base".  Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is pro-life, so he's a non-starter, even for VP.

The "Higher Profile" Democrats pose more problems.  Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA) is as old as Sanders; he came on the scene in 1974 at age 37, and he's now approaching 80.  Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) has had some ethics problems, and is considered too pro-business by some.  Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is inexperienced, and too much like Sanders.  Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is a progressive favorite from a key state (Ohio), but he's a guy who speaks from the gut and has made more than one gaffe.

Can it happen?  Can a Democrat (or two) enter the fray to stop the Hillary Clinton Freight Train, or the Bernie Sanders Hostile Takeover?  Who would be the candidate to step into the fray?  I certainly believe that the Democrats need this scenario.  I view a Hillary or an Sanders nomination as calamitous for the Democrats, and their only hope is in finding an escape.

[emailking]

Unless you're thinking O'Malley will surge or that there will be some huge write-in campaign or something, the only way it could be brokered is if Hillary and Bernie fight to a draw and the superdelagates throw their support behind someone else. I don't think it can be brokered if someone comes in with a majority of pledged delegates.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Unless you're thinking O'Malley will surge or that there will be some huge write-in campaign or something, the only way it could be brokered is if Hillary and Bernie fight to a draw and the superdelagates throw their support behind someone else. I don't think it can be brokered if someone comes in with a majority of pledged delegates.

The way it would happen with only two candidates is a bunch of super delegates refusing to announce who they support before the convention.

[Zache]

Maybe this is my inner conspiracy theorist speaking, but I feel if there was even a possibility the Justice Department could head towards a federal indictment then Obama would've been among the first to know and would've advised Biden to jump in months ago.

[Seneca]

To help this conversation, here are the remaining states with ballot deadlines still in the future (deadline day in parentheses).

Rhode Island (1/23)
Colorado (1/25)
Kentucky (1/26)
Wisconsin (1/26)
Alaska (1/29)
West Virginia (1/30)
---Iowa caucus---
New Mexico (2/2)
Maryland (2/3)
New York (2/2)
Idaho (2/5)
Indiana (2/5)
---New Hampshire Primary---
Pennsylvania (2/16)
---Nevada Caucus---
Delaware (2/26)
Washington (2/26)
---South Carolina Primary---
Kansas (3/1)
---Super Tuesday---
Connecticut (3/4)
Oregon (3/8)
Wyoming (3/10
Nebraska (3/11)
Montana (3/14)
California (3/26)
South Dakota (3/29)
New Jersey (4/4)
North Dakota (5/2)

At this point, no respectable Democrat will get in the race until (that is, unless) Hillary is indicted. Which, personally, I consider highly unlikely but putting that aside, when do we think an indictment might be issued? For the sake of constructing a scenario, say it comes down four weeks from now, February 12, three days after the New Hampshire primary. Say Uncle Joe jumps in the next day. He has 72 hours to get 2,000 signatures in Pennsylvania; not easy, but not impossible. So imagine Biden gets on the ballot everywhere listed after New Hampshire. Next question. Will Hillary drop out?

Initially, I think she won't. Clearly, she doesn't think that she has done anything wrong and neither to her supporters. More to the point, dropping out immediately guarantees Sanders wins in all the March states, states which make up the bulk of the delegates up for grabs and states which no late entrant can get on the ballot. So Hillary stays in through March, but what happens? Either the indictment causes Hillary's campaign to collapse and allows Sanders to build a formidable delegate lead for Biden to climb, or the indictment has no impact on Hillary's campaign, making her less likely to drop out once Biden's name starts appearing on ballots in April.

To summarize, while someone could make a late entrance in hopes of throwing the nomination to the convention (it's impossible for a late entrant to win outright), I expect they would have a hard time making an impact. Either the Sanders campaign will have built up incredible momentum, enabling it to brush aside any establishment Hail Mary, or the Clinton campaign will have continued unfazed, presumably locking up the nomination in June before the convention.

[Orser67]

At this point, there's probably only one scenario in which Clinton or Sanders is not the nominee. That would be if the Sanders/Clinton die or otherwise withdraw after winning a majority of the delegates (or at least enough to deny the other the nomination), leaving the party to choose a new nominee. I think Joe Biden and John Kerry would be the favorites in that case.

I guess the other scenario is an O'Malley surge, but somehow that seems even more unlikely.

[pho]

If it's close enough for the super delegates (read: Democratic establishment) to bag it for Clinton, they will.

[Suburbia]

Jack Reed would be a good choice for the Democrats. Liberal, Northeastern, more electable than Sanders, military record.

[DS0816]

The Democratic Party has been conspiring to get Hillary Clinton nominated as quickly as possible. No one individual has been more obvious than DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. And the approximately 90 percent of the Senate Democrats who have already endorsed Clinton, before anyone officially votes in the Iowa Democratic caucus and the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, reinforces this.

[SillyAmerican]

The Democrats are in dire need of a candidate that is NOT Hillary and NOT Bernie.  These candidates cannot win.

I couldn't agree more. Hopefully, the Dems can pull a reasonable candidate out of the hat before things go south on them. (I was hoping O'Malley would gain some traction, but that's not happening...).

[Eraserhead]

Sanders isn't 77.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

There won't be a brokered convention, but I want there to be for the sake of a Republican victory.  The last two times people have suggested it and it's just not going to happen.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden wins the nomination

[Suburbia]

The Democrats are in dire need of a candidate that is NOT Hillary and NOT Bernie.  These candidates cannot win.

I couldn't agree more. Hopefully, the Dems can pull a reasonable candidate out of the hat before things go south on them. (I was hoping O'Malley would gain some traction, but that's not happening...).

Jack Reed can win.

[SteveRogers]

Unless you're thinking O'Malley will surge or that there will be some huge write-in campaign or something, the only way it could be brokered is if Hillary and Bernie fight to a draw and the superdelagates throw their support behind someone else. I don't think it can be brokered if someone comes in with a majority of pledged delegates.

The way it would happen with only two candidates is a bunch of super delegates refusing to announce who they support before the convention.

Ther super delegates would only come into play if the two candidates were close to tied like in 2008. There's no indication that that would be the case.

And where on Earth does this new-found prospect of an indictment come from? That was put to bed before Hillary's House testimony.

[Shadows]

I would not rule out something shady

[Blair]

If 2008 wasn't a brokered convention then how in hell would this one be?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Wouldn't Biden be the one chosen then?

[Mister Mets]

The Democratic race is mainly between two candidates, so the main way this would occur is if something really damages Clinton, resulting in establishment Democrats looking for an alternative to Sanders.

Another candidate might enter states with later filing deadlines in order to get momentum and credibility for the convention.

This would require some kind of crisis for Clinton, and that's unlikely to materialize in the next few months.

[Zache]

How early could Clinton secure enough delegates to guarantee the nomination? Mid-April or so right?

If O'Malley and Sanders have dropped out by then, how difficult would it be for Dems to push through an acceptable alternative ticket, assuming an indictment happens around this period. Wouldn't this kinda be the best case scenario?