NBC/SurveyMonkey national: Trump 35% Cruz 18% Rubio 13% Carson 9% Bush 6%

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Dec. 28 - Jan. 3:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/294643292/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Weekly-Election-Tracking-Poll

Trump 35%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 13%
Carson 9%
Bush 6%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 3%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Paul 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Updated trendline of all national polls:

[Skye]

So, nothing has changed, then. Gotcha.

[136or142]

Santorum goes from zero percent to one percent. This isn't my strongest field of math.  Is that an infinity increase in support?

[Zanas]

Santorum goes from zero percent to one percent. This isn't my strongest field of math.  Is that an infinity increase in support?

Yes, that is indeed an ∞% increase. Keeping this trend, Rick Santorum will win the General election and all Senate seats on Thursday.

[136or142]

Santorum goes from zero percent to one percent. This isn't my strongest field of math.  Is that an infinity increase in support?

Yes, that is indeed an ∞% increase. Keeping this trend, Rick Santorum will win the General election and all Senate seats on Thursday.

Thanks!

[emailking]

Undefined technically. Or more precisely, the question is ill formed as you can't have a percentage (or fractional) increase when there is nothing to take a percentage of.

But I know we're being tongue-in-cheek, so yeah...infinity-% I guess.

Also, I like this:

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[The Other Castro]

What is with these inconsiderate jerks polling during New Years?

[Phony Moderate]

Haha, SurveyMonkey is less of a joke than the WSJ evidently.

[bigedlb]

We can go ape about survey monkey, but NBC prefers their partnership with WSJ because Trump's numbers are lower ...  Trump is suing NBC...

[Mr. Morden]

Some crosstabs:

[Sorenroy]

Some crosstabs:

Is this in a general election amongst republicans or in the republican primary?

[Mr. Morden]

Some crosstabs:

Is this in a general election amongst republicans or in the republican primary?

Republican primary

[Mr. Morden]

Here's who everyone picks as their 2nd choice:

[muon2]

Undefined technically. Or more precisely, the question is ill formed as you can't have a percentage (or fractional) increase when there is nothing to take a percentage of.

But I know we're being tongue-in-cheek, so yeah...infinity-% I guess.

Also, I like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I concur. As long as the MoE has decimals, too, then we should be able to use decimals on the main numbers. The meaning of both is well defined. For values under 10%, not using decimals seems strange.

[Torie]

That second choice graphic is one of the most depressing things I have seen. Yes, the Pub party has gone truly nutter. Just awful. Now the only question, is whether it is just a temporary psychosis that meds can handle, or long term and chronic.

This really might be a realigning election, as a group of Pubs leave (let's call them for the moment the WSJ Republicans), and wander around in the wilderness (it is really, not that bad being a Dem in NY actually), and maybe with the Pubs having a more populist and perhaps protectionist profile, it attracts even more blue collar white voters. I don't know where the Pubs will get their money from, with this profile, but that is another matter.

[Likely Voter]

While it is often said that Rubio is everyone's second choice, it seems that is more true for Cruz. He is the net beneficiary from a Trump collapse, more Carson collapse and even the the collapse of the so-called 'mainstream' candidates.

The Trump chart alone may explain why the establishment hasn't gone after Trump in the same way they went after Gingrich four years ago. While Santorum benefited from the Gingrich collapse, the GOP elites and Romney knew that they could deal with him, especially as he had no money.

[Torie]

While it is often said that Rubio is everyone's second choice, it seems that is more true for Cruz. He is the net beneficiary from a Trump collapse, more Carson collapse and even the the collapse of the so-called 'mainstream' candidates.

The Trump chart alone may explain why the establishment hasn't gone after Trump in the same way they went after Gingrich four years ago. While Santorum benefited from the Gingrich collapse, the GOP elites and Romney knew that they could deal with him, especially as he had no money.

I think you may be right, assuming the establishment would prefer Cruz over Trump. It's kind of dicey, since just about every Pub politician hates Cruz (he's loathed in the Senate), but maybe he is less risky, and there is the comfort that he will lose to Hillary, but perhaps by not the kind of margin that will take a lot of other Pubs down with him. On a personal level, I think Trump is more likable than Cruz, who is not likable at all, but maybe Cruz would tone down in a General election.

[Mehmentum]

While it is often said that Rubio is everyone's second choice, it seems that is more true for Cruz. He is the net beneficiary from a Trump collapse, more Carson collapse and even the the collapse of the so-called 'mainstream' candidates.

The Trump chart alone may explain why the establishment hasn't gone after Trump in the same way they went after Gingrich four years ago. While Santorum benefited from the Gingrich collapse, the GOP elites and Romney knew that they could deal with him, especially as he had no money.

Cruz in many ways seems to be at the center of the party right now.  He's conservative, but isn't nearly as inflammatory as Trump.  He's anti-establishment, but he actually holds office and has government experience.  Not to mention, he's been trying to appeal to Libertarians and Evangelicals.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

So if the establishment don't want to take out Trump because Cruz would benefit, what is their strategy? Brokered convention? Because there will be one if he stays in until the end.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So if the establishment don't want to take out Trump because Cruz would benefit, what is their strategy?

Praying for his death.