IMO, Possibility of Sanders winning Iowa getting higher on recent CBS poll.
Iowa Poll, Democrat 2016 CBS 12/14 - 12/17
Total: Sanders 45% | Hillary 50% | O’Malley 4%
But, in my opinion it seems Sanders could win on Iowa with more than 50% possibility. why?
Let’s see the detail of this Poll first.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/293729658/CBS-News-December-2015-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa (page 44)
1) Very liberal : Sanders 55% | Hillary 44% | O’Malley 1%
2) Liberal : Sanders 46% | Hillary 50% | O’Malley 3%
3) Moderate: Sanders 35% | Hillary 60% | O’Malley 5%
2. Look at the page 45. Enthusiasm for First Choice
1) Very liberal : Enthusiastic 71%
2) Liberal : Enthusiastic 61%
3) Moderate : Enthusiastic 49%
you can see as the more radical ideology, more enthusiastic.
and enthusiastic = more likely goes to the vote than others.
especially, supporters of Sanders they are more active support and have loyalty than hillary’s support. supporters of sanders are generally more liberal than hillary for sure also.
conclusion
1. The total gap is just 6%
2. Thinking about voting rate(turnout) as ideology
3. I think Very liberal,Liberal they gonna more lean to Sanders day by day
because his political position is far much more lett than hillary.
(you know, reputation of hillary, she was kinda conservative as a democrat.
of course personaly i dont see her as a conservative politician at all. but let just focus about her image and reputation to most democrat people.)
I think the Possibility of Sander’s winning iowa getting higher with new CBS poll.
and he is winning on New Hampshire with very big gaps in same CBS poll
with 56%(sanders) : 42%(hillary). Sanders is losing to hillary on the National poll with big gaps. but if sanders win Iowa and New Hampshire in a row. it can be change.
I think, now on people should think about a possibility,
TRUMP vs SANDERS in general election.
(I think with this match, TRUMP can win more easily compare to against hillary,
because if moderate people notice how much sanders is so left, many of them won’t vote for sanders.)
