Do the debates actually hurt Trump?

[Lyin' Steve]

That's the conventional wisdom.  Trump does poorly in the debates, gets a negative cycle, and then comes back after he gets his mojo back with some positive cycles.

However, I have an alternative proposal.  Trump is the republican everyone knows.  When these debates happen, we get exposed to Bush, Fiorina, Cruz, Rubio, etc. and suddenly they get exposure and some cycles afterwards.  Some Trump supporters switch over to them out of curiosity, and then switch back to Trump as interest fades.  We saw this most notably with Fiorina, she got about 3-5% after the first debate and 5-10% after the second, and those were approximately the amounts that Trump fell by.

With increasing awareness of the race, by my hypothesis, this would mean that when it comes down to Iowa and the debates, Trump won't really be hurt just in the nick of time by the debates like some are hoping.

[Mr. Morden]

With increasing awareness of the race, by my hypothesis, this would mean that when it comes down to Iowa and the debates, Trump won't really be hurt just in the nick of time by the debates like some are hoping.

I'm confused by your conclusion.  You're saying that the default mode of some voters is to claim support for Trump in polls because he's the "republican everyone knows", but that when they get exposed to other candidates as in debates, some of them switch to other candidates for a while.  So then, if that's the case, why wouldn't this phenomenon also occur with the final pre-Iowa debate?  For that matter, why wouldn't it happen in Iowa and other early states just from the intense pre-election day coverage before voting?

[Sir Mohamed]

A little, because the other candidates get a platform. But after the next Insult, Trump is up again.

[Lyin' Steve]

With increasing awareness of the race, by my hypothesis, this would mean that when it comes down to Iowa and the debates, Trump won't really be hurt just in the nick of time by the debates like some are hoping.

I'm confused by your conclusion.  You're saying that the default mode of some voters is to claim support for Trump in polls because he's the "republican everyone knows", but that when they get exposed to other candidates as in debates, some of them switch to other candidates for a while.  So then, if that's the case, why wouldn't this phenomenon also occur with the final pre-Iowa debate?  For that matter, why wouldn't it happen in Iowa and other early states just from the intense pre-election day coverage before voting?

You quoted and said it yourself.  If the other candidates are getting considerable media coverage already (or already have widespread name recognition, unlike in September, as I wrote) they won't be able to take away from Trump as much due to the debates.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump thrives on controlling the media cycle. The debates disrupt that.