CA: GOP slides in "The OC," Dems haven't capitalized

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

GOP voter registration falls below 40% for the first time in the history of Orange County. However, Democrats are in no position to make gains.

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Orange County Democrats are low energy lightweights.

[Green Line]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

[Sbane]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

Donald Trump might make it happen.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

McCain only carried OC 50-48 in 2008. With a Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket, a GOP loss here is within the realm of possibilities.

[Landslide Lyndon]

GOP voter registration falls below 40% for the first time in the history of Orange County. However, Democrats are in no position to make gains.

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Orange County Democrats are low energy lightweights.

But why is that happening?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

GOP voter registration falls below 40% for the first time in the history of Orange County. However, Democrats are in no position to make gains.

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Orange County Democrats are low energy lightweights.

But why is that happening?

Young voters registering NPP, minority population growth holding Dem share constant, old Republicans dying off.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know...OC Republicans strike me as exactly the type that would love themselves some Donald Trump. Just because they're moneyed doesn't mean they're not ideological cretins. Isn't OC more new money than old money anyway?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Here's a precinct map done by the OC Register after the 2012 election, showing a 51.9-45.6 Romney win:



The largest obstacle to Democrats here is the relentless turnout of suburban South County, as well as the stubborn loyalty of the beach cities (minus liberal haven Laguna Beach) to the GOP.

Democrats could only win the county by actually flipping votes. There is just no winning the turnout battle with the OC GOP. Demographics obviously play a huge roll in the GOP advantage, because just the characteristics of South County voters indicate they are the most likely to vote in all circumstances. North County minorities turn out too inconsistently, as you saw Democrats lose a Democratic state Senate and a Democratic state Assembly seat in North County in 2014.

Going forward, obviously reclaiming Democratic seats in the north is step one. From there, it's a crapshoot. Focusing on winning nonpartisan races in cities might be a good start. Maybe focusing in on Hispanics in areas like Fullerton, Placentia, and Yorba Linda, then target Royce's seat when he retires.

[Torie]

Most of the Pub zone in OC is now quite expensive housing, so I suspect the Hispanic population in OC is close to maxing out now. OC's political future really turns on Asian voting habits in the future, and in particular how the Chinese vote, and whether or not the Vietnamese continue to trend Dem.

[Adam Griffin]

I actually wouldn't mind making a precinct-level animated GIF of OC a la my big-ass Georgia project, if I knew that the data would be there/consistently usable and that anyone would pay attention to it.

[Adam Griffin]

Ugh, I'm trying to see if they have precinct-level data available (for free) on OC's website, since the state doesn't provide it (man, for all of the crappy things GA does, our SoS data availability is pretty good - I even hear they publish SSNs of everyone if you ask nicely!).

I did come across this via their live data system, which is pretty cool. They have today's VR totals + they issue a full report each week:

12/7/2014
R 574718
D 456657
R+118061

12/11/2014
R 575007
D 457090
R+117917

Diff: 144
D+36 / day

So if that pace continues, OC will become plurality D in registration in November 2024: just in time to select Hillary Clinton's successor!

[tallguy23]

I spent almost every summer as a child in OC (grandparents live in Santa Ana).

Their neighborhood has changed during the last 20-25 years. What was once a lily white suburb is now majority-minority. In fact, they're now the only white people on their block (plus they're democrats).

That's a huge reason why OC is changing.

[Sbane]

I don't know...OC Republicans strike me as exactly the type that would love themselves some Donald Trump. Just because they're moneyed doesn't mean they're not ideological cretins. Isn't OC more new money than old money anyway?

But those people are already reliable GOP voters, whereas in other parts of the country he might be able to get some disaffected Dem/independent voters to vote for him. Also, Trump will increase turnout which will hurt him more in California and OC since young people are heavily non-white. In addition, there are pockets of strength for the GOP among non-white communities in OC and that is lost with Trump. It's not just the Vietnamese, the GOP sometimes puts up decent numbers with Koreans as well, who are more influential up in the Fullerton/ Buena Park area.

[Holmes]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

Well, no- but I think it'll officially be the end of the California Republican Party (assuming we haven't reached that point yet). Orange County would still continue voting Republican downballot more often than not though, like other SoCal counties such as San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego.

[IceSpear]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

Well, no- but I think it'll officially be the end of the California Republican Party (assuming we haven't reached that point yet). Orange County would still continue voting Republican downballot more often than not though, like other SoCal counties such as San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego.

We have.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Most of the Pub zone in OC is now quite expensive housing, so I suspect the Hispanic population in OC is close to maxing out now. OC's political future really turns on Asian voting habits in the future, and in particular how the Chinese vote, and whether or not the Vietnamese continue to trend Dem.

Difficult to see where the Vietnamese vote goes from here. Doesn't help that the two would-be bellwether candidates are anomalies.

Bao Nguyen, although in a technically nonpartisan position, is running for Loretta Sanchez's House seat in 2016. This guy defeated a 22 year incumbent Mayor in the City of Garden Grove by 15 (!) votes in 2014, but then last August called the police at 1:30am to ask the officers about his political career aspirations. Bit of a head scratcher.

Janet Nguyen (R), who picked up District 34 in the state Senate, certainly has a compelling story. Her time in the state Senate has mainly been defined by her proposal to amend the California Constitution to prohibit the removal of the American flag from the lobby of a UC Irvine building (??). Additionally, her time on the Garden Grove City Council was mostly just people trying to explain to her what eminent domain is. The City Council was battling Chevron at the time, who has led continuous attempts for decades to build an underground oil pipeline straight down Garden Grove Blvd.

[Holmes]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

Well, no- but I think it'll officially be the end of the California Republican Party (assuming we haven't reached that point yet). Orange County would still continue voting Republican downballot more often than not though, like other SoCal counties such as San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego.

We have.

There are three conditions that, when fulfilled, I'll rule the CA GOP dead:

- The 2016 Senate race is D vs. D.
- Republicans lose their marginal seats (CA-10, CA-21, CA-25).
- They lose to Newsom in 2018 by at least 10 points - or worse, it's a D vs. D race.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The day we lose Orange County will without a doubt be the worst day in our party's history

Well, no- but I think it'll officially be the end of the California Republican Party (assuming we haven't reached that point yet). Orange County would still continue voting Republican downballot more often than not though, like other SoCal counties such as San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego.

We have.

There are three conditions that, when fulfilled, I'll rule the CA GOP dead:

- The 2016 Senate race is D vs. D.
- Republicans lose their marginal seats (CA-10, CA-21, CA-25).
- They lose to Newsom in 2018 by at least 10 points - or worse, it's a D vs. D race.

A big turning point will be when the Dems can hold a supermajority in the state legislature without losing it during low turnout elections.

Newsom winning 55-45 wouldn't be much of a surprise, nor a dagger into the CA GOP in my opinion.

A D vs. D election would likely indicate a lapse of GOP party control over multiple, vote-splitting candidates running, not necessarily the undermining of GOP support in the state.