Do you think 2016 will be a ...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 08, 2024, 02:58:17 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Do you think 2016 will be a ...		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: low turnout election like in 2000 ?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Do you think 2016 will be a ...  (Read 874 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 12, 2015, 03:19:08 PM »
Yes, probably around 50-55% - based on recent trends of disgustingly low turnout in the US.

Way down from the 61% in 2008 and 58% in 2012.

Also, the likely nominees (Clinton & Trump/Carson) are not inspiring Indys to turn out and vote.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2015, 03:19:48 PM »
Trump will definitely inspire Indys to vote. Not sure what you're talking about.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2015, 04:41:26 PM »
Quote from: MW Senator Max on November 12, 2015, 03:19:48 PM
Trump will definitely inspire Indys to vote. Not sure what you're talking about.

How ?

"Hillary has a new haircut. It's bad. Please vote for me, mine is cooler."

?
Logged
Zache
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 641


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2015, 04:46:55 PM »
I don't know. I do expect record levels of Hispanic turnout if Trump is the GOP nominee though.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2015, 04:50:09 PM »
Resulting in this map:
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2015, 05:41:57 PM »
Interestingly Trump could drive up turnout, both for and against him. He is a very unique and polarizing figure unlike your typical low energy loser establishment hacks. You could see record Hispanic turnout due to how off putting Trump is towards them. On the other hand Trump has a lot of appeal to the white working class, especially males. His xenophobic anti immigrant rhetoric and populist protectionist 'America First' could do wonders with that demographic.
Logged
Higgs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,581


Political Matrix
E: 6.14, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2015, 11:32:46 PM »
I say it's 58% again
Logged
dudeabides
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
Tuvalu
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2015, 12:17:52 AM »
Should Trump win the nomination, it will be even lower. Many Republicans will stay home and independents will as well since Clinton will win in a landslide.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,250
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2015, 12:24:10 AM »
Uninspiring candidates on both sides. No major polarizing issue. Economy OK. I'd say low turnout is pretty much guaranteed.
Logged
Asian Nazi
d32123
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,523
China


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2015, 12:29:08 AM »
I don't know of any models that can accurately predict turnout, but I'm guessing it'll be low, but maybe not as low as 2000.  The likely matchups (Clinton-Bush and Clinton-Rubio) are not exactly exciting, and while the media will try to hype it up as the CLOSEST ELECTION EVER they practically always do, even when the polling data shows otherwise.

I actually think Trump would drive up turnout, because both the backlash and the backlash to the backlash would be that strong.
Logged
Sasquatch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,077


Political Matrix
E: -8.13, S: -8.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2015, 02:28:49 AM »
I figure it will be around 56%.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.222 seconds with 15 queries.