What senators could deliver their home states?

[A18]

Well?

[nini2287]

Here's a better question, which senators couldn't:

Mark Pryor vs. a good Republican
Bill Nelson vs. a good Republican
Mary Landrieu vs. a good Republican
Mark Dayton
Norm Coleman vs. a decent Democrat
Max Baucus vs. a decent Republican
Ben Nelson vs. a decent Republican
Byron Dorgan vs. a decent Republican
Kent Conrad vs. a decent Repubican
Rick Santorum vs. a good Democrat
Lincoln Chafee vs. a decent Democrat
Tim Johnson

[Joe Republic]

If you mean "would they switch their state into their own party's column" from the 2004 result, then:
Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Judd Gregg, Arlen Specter, Rick Santorum, Norm Coleman, Bob Byrd, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Gordon Smith, Ken Salazar, Tom Harkin, Harry Reid and Jeff Bingaman.  Max Baucus at a stretch.  I left out Ben Nelson and the Dakotas' Democrats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Senator Hatch of Utah should be able to.

[J. J.]

Senator Hatch of Utah should be able to.

From the Republican column to the what?

[ian]

If you mean "would they switch their state into their own party's column" from the 2004 result, then:
Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Judd Gregg, Arlen Specter, Rick Santorum, Norm Coleman, Bob Byrd, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Gordon Smith, Ken Salazar, Tom Harkin, Harry Reid and Jeff Bingaman. Max Baucus at a stretch. I left out Ben Nelson and the Dakotas' Democrats.

You think Specter could deliver PA?  I don't really think so.

[AkSaber]

Duh. Ted Stevens.

[minionofmidas]

If you mean "would they switch their state into their own party's column" from the 2004 result, then:
Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Judd Gregg, Arlen Specter, Rick Santorum, Norm Coleman, Bob Byrd, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Gordon Smith, Ken Salazar, Tom Harkin, Harry Reid and Jeff Bingaman. Max Baucus at a stretch. I left out Ben Nelson and the Dakotas' Democrats.

You think Specter could deliver PA?  I don't really think so.

All of them could (you forgot Jay Rockefeller btw). Whether all of them would is a different question. Depends on the opponent of course, but there are some where I have serious doubts.

[nini2287]

If you mean "would they switch their state into their own party's column" from the 2004 result, then:
Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Judd Gregg, Arlen Specter, Rick Santorum, Norm Coleman, Bob Byrd, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Gordon Smith, Ken Salazar, Tom Harkin, Harry Reid and Jeff Bingaman. Max Baucus at a stretch. I left out Ben Nelson and the Dakotas' Democrats.

I think he could, although he might have a trouble against a populist Democrat.  Against a generic pro-choice Democrat, he'd still post big wins in the T and western PA, and would win the Philly suburbs by slight margins.

You think Specter could deliver PA?  I don't really think so.

[Blue Rectangle]

If you mean "would they switch their state into their own party's column" from the 2004 result, then:
Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Judd Gregg, Arlen Specter, Rick Santorum, Norm Coleman, Bob Byrd, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Gordon Smith, Ken Salazar, Tom Harkin, Harry Reid and Jeff Bingaman. Max Baucus at a stretch. I left out Ben Nelson and the Dakotas' Democrats.

You think Specter could deliver PA?  I don't really think so.

If Bayh can make up for a 20-point difference in Indiana, then I think Specter can make up 2.5% in PA.

[minionofmidas]

If you mean "would they switch their state into their own party's column" from the 2004 result, then:
Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Judd Gregg, Arlen Specter, Rick Santorum, Norm Coleman, Bob Byrd, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Gordon Smith, Ken Salazar, Tom Harkin, Harry Reid and Jeff Bingaman. Max Baucus at a stretch. I left out Ben Nelson and the Dakotas' Democrats.

You think Specter could deliver PA?  I don't really think so.

If Bayh can make up for a 20-point difference in Indiana, then I think Specter can make up 2.5% in PA.

It's a much more polarized state...and Specter came very close to losing the primary, so obviously he's not popular with PA Republicans...still, yeah, he certainly can. Actually, he'd be more likely to carry PA than Santorum.

[Blue Rectangle]

It's a much more polarized state...and Specter came very close to losing the primary, so obviously he's not popular with PA Republicans...still, yeah, he certainly can. Actually, he'd be more likely to carry PA than Santorum.

You're probably right, but Specter can't win the nomination.

When's the last time someone polled Bayh against an unnamed Republican in Indiana for president?  I thought I saw one a year ago that put him about even.  Bayh has been trying to move left to appease the national base.  I really don't think he could win the nomination and then move back right fast enough to carry Indiana.  Same goes for Rudy and New York.

[MissCatholic]

I think it is really difficult for a senator to flip a state in the presidential run.

I think Bayh would struggle the closer the election gets as he would have to appeal to the left. Republicans woul find it more easier and people like Gordon Smith, Olympia Snowe and Arlen Spector would have a good chance of doing that.

On the democrats - Reid, Pryor, Lincoln and Landrieu perhaps Bayh but its very conservative.

[Blue Rectangle]

Looking at 2000 vs. 2004, you could say Kerry was good for a few points in NH even though that wasn't his home state.  Edwards, on the other hand, didn't change the spread in NC from 2000 (though the PV was different, so maybe you could say he was worth 3 points).

A 5 point pickup would be mediocre to average; a 10-point pickup would be a strong showing.  A 20-point change would be amazing.  Most reliable voters are partisans who will not cross party lines.  To get a 20-point swing, you pretty much have to cut into that base.

[minionofmidas]

It's a much more polarized state...and Specter came very close to losing the primary, so obviously he's not popular with PA Republicans...still, yeah, he certainly can. Actually, he'd be more likely to carry PA than Santorum.

You're probably right, but Specter can't win the nomination.

Obviously not.
Nor can I imagine him seeking it.

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Good point. Yeah, it's an outside bet at most really...unless the Rep is extremely weak anyways...

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I don't see Giuliani carrying New York in a presidential race. Let alone be nominated.

[Rural Radical]

Reid (Nevada)
Rockerfeller(West Virginia)
Nelson (Florida)
Spector(Pennsylvania)

[Joe Republic]

The interesting thing is that Senator George McGovern managed to get 8% more than his national average in South Dakota in 1972.  Of course, he still lost the state by 9 points, but the fact that the liberal idiot managed to do that well in SD (of all places) in such a wipe-out defeat shows what effect the home state advantage has.