GE is Chafee versus Carson... how did we get there, and who wins?

[Blue3]

If we skipped forward in time, and saw the 2016 general election is Chafee versus Carson...

1. How do you think we got here?

2. Who would win?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

1. magic, b/c it ain't happening without.

2. my guess would be this:

(carson 272) with virginia within fractions of a percent.

[ElectionsGuy]

I can answer the second question:

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

A lot of Democratic candidates have died.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I can answer the second question:

do you think so? imo a chafee-carson election would be a total snoozefest that ends up playing out as a generic d/generic r race. no room for a landslide.

[ElectionsGuy]

I can answer the second question:

You're joking, right?

Nope. Chafee is a joke.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

so is carson…

[ElectionsGuy]

so is carson…

Carson can actually run a campaign. Chafee doesn't have the infrastructure needed to run a national race.

[JonathanSwift]

Carson wins Iowa, forcing Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal and Santorum to drop out of the race. With Carson having a monopoly on the evangelical vote and other segments of the GOP still divided, Carson is able to win South Carolina and sweep most of the Super Tuesday states. Trump, the winner of New Hampshire and Nevada, then drops out and endorses Carson, giving the retired neurosurgeon a boost of support which allows him to win Florida, thus forcing establishment favorite Marco Rubio out of the race. Carson then easily wins all of the remaining primaries and caucuses against Rand Paul.

Biden refuses to run and Clinton wins New Hampshire by a surprisingly wide margin, forcing O'Malley and Sanders out of the race. Clinton is indicted and forced to withdraw on February 29th, allowing the only other candidate in the race at this point (Chafee) to sweep the Super Tuesday states and all subsequent primaries and caucuses with over 90% of the vote.

Carson wins the closest election since 2000.

Retired Neurosurgeon Ben Carson (R-MD) / Former CEO Herman Cain (R-GA): 49.3%; 276 Electoral Votes
Former Governor Lincoln Chafee (D-RI) / Former Governor Charlie Crist (D-FL): 49.2%; 262 Electoral Votes

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Look for the nearest flying pig and hop aboard, I guess.

[SteveRogers]

Carson wins Iowa. Then following a recount, Carson emerges victorious over Trump in New Hampshire with Rubio and Bush trailing by a considerable margin. Carson goes on to win South Carolina by an impressive margin, at which point Trump drops out. The establishment candidates never recover.

Chafee receives a  major bump after the first debate. Biden never enters. Clinton is indicted on emailghazi charges a week before Iowa. Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, but Chafee proves to have broader support and makes impressive gains come super Tuesday. Everybody forgets Martin O'Malley is running.

As for how this turns out, this looks reasonable, but I can see Virginia going the other way.

2. my guess would be this:

(carson 272) with virginia within fractions of a percent.