Silver: Trump and Sanders Probably Won't be Nominated
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Author Topic: Silver: Trump and Sanders Probably Won't be Nominated  (Read 495 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
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« on: September 10, 2015, 06:48:22 PM »
Does Nate have it out for The Donald?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-comparing-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders/
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Bigby
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2015, 06:50:15 PM »
It sounds like he isn't feeling the Bern either.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2015, 07:03:26 PM »
538 has been wrong so many times about Trump and Sanders. They should quit trying to predict primaries 6 months away and stick to predicting general elections 1 week away.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2015, 07:13:20 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2015, 07:30:42 PM by Mr. Morden »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 10, 2015, 07:03:26 PM
538 has been wrong so many times about Trump and Sanders. They should quit trying to predict primaries 6 months away and stick to predicting general elections 1 week away.

I think the underlying disagreement here is that they think polls taken now aren't very good predictors of who's going to win the nomination.  Other indicators, such as endorsements, are regarded as more predictive.  They can't be proven wrong on that until the actual voting starts.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2015, 07:17:46 PM »
He's right about Sanders, but not about Trump. Unless someone credible can take the lead from Trump, he wins the nomination.
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Skye
yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2015, 07:24:21 PM »
I want to believe Silver is right, but Trump's support is way too unpredictable.
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2015, 10:38:01 PM »
His article is way more interesting than this thread title would suggest. He makes a lot of good points, actually.
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